…but first, we have to actually be in a trend. Mr. Market has not been very kind, and in fact has been downright nasty, to both bullish and bearish traders who have presumed a sustained trend in their favor over the past three or four months. As I note in the video below, I have no interest in being a hero going into next week. I would most certainly welcome a fresh bull leg higher, as they tend to be relatively easier markets. If we are, indeed, poised to break above this multi-month trading range and begin a true sustained uptrend, then by definition there will be time to get on the momentum train.
Until that happens, however, I will respect the range. In addition to the price action, other indicators have been flagging overbought conditions, namely The PPT.
NOTE: If the video is too small for you to see the charts, you can double-click on the screen and watch it on YouTube.
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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1QvCQtUV5g 450 300]r
Most excellent Chess. But then again, when are you not?
Thanks!
Great video! Trends don’t start with a number of unfilled gaps in my opinion…
Excellent and helpful. I am also using caution at this time. My positions include long vz and pg 35%. I am short term tza vxx and tlt 15%. I have 50% cash position at this time. Chess how do you read the higher cpi in China for August. What influence willl this have for China and US stocks?
Excellent market commentary chess. Much appreciated as always
Very good Chess as always! And fun to hear you talk it!
As for my positioning, I’m a little over 50% long, but 25% of that is in precious metals, which has been knocking it out of the park. My only real longs over this period have been Wood’s picks, which have also been doing well as they work well in volatile markets.
Like you, I too am waiting for real trend before I load up on some of the well know institutional favorites.
Although, I have also noticed with regard to many of the well know market leaders, if one had purchased back at the beginning of this period and held without a stop or placed a 3xATR stop (12%) roughly, they would have done quite well.
Thanks Chess. Always steadying the ship.