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I have a 62% cash position, four longs acting well ($CMG, $CTXS, $ROVI, $TQNT), as well as some hedge to the downside (long $SRS). The way this market is acting, we could be setting up for a “don’t short a boring market” type of rally, or we could be topping out before a sharp leg down next week. I do not claim to be smart enough to determine which of those scenarios will play out. If anyone does, step forward and ye shall be judged.
I believe that the most profitable traders are selectively aggressive. Many traders are very selective, while others are extremely aggressive. However, combining the two is often difficult. There are times when acting boldly is correct. I think this is one of those times where it is correct to take some weight off of the accelerator. Should the market explode higher next week, well, I still have some skin in the game. Obviously, I will not reap the full reward in either direction.
Given that we are consolidating near the top of a multi-month trading range, I am willing to accept less of a potential reward in the face of increased risk.
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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kn481KcjvMo 450 300]r
position_trader’s chart shows possible a break of a multi day ascending triangle forming in S&P. would that break give us a market rally first before a pull back?
If that happens, then sure.
great posts, all week.
Allright I am standing up to be judged! Markets going down first. You know the technical word for “never short a dull market”. It is called a short term bull flag. Correct me if I am wrong but I ain’t seeing any. My other indicators point a flat to down phase which already began yesterday. For further confirmation, take a look at Acc/dist scores in PPT. None of the long leveraged ETFs are sporting anything over 4 – hardly a sign of a short term uptrend. Not that none of these things can change rapidly come Monday morning. But I am taking a stand here before the Jury!
“Mom, we need MEATLOAF!”
Have a great weekend and enjoy the NFL open if you watch!
where goest RDCM Monday? gap up or down?