I am still sitting in full cash this morning, having closed out shorts yesterday amid the crash-tease-then-violent-reversal (for the second day in a row).
On the one hand, we are looking at a holiday-shortened week with Passover and then markets closed for Good Friday. So, bears usually back off the action during the holiday trading and let bulls have a mild bounce. That is just one reason why I covered yesterday.
But instead of immediately flipping long, I am mindful of the still-damaged charts out there, especially in the leaders. Just because some stocks and sectors have temporarily stopped going down does not make them easy or even high probability swing longs.
I know the big talk now is that the Nasdaq will rally to form a “right shoulder” in the coming weeks to form a massive head and shoulders top dating back to last December. I think that scenario may be a bit too obvious.
To my eye, that busted rising channel since November 2012 on the Nazzy, seen below on the weekly, remains the controlling pattern until effectively countered by bulls.
In other words, I still believe rallies are to be sold, if not until early next week after the holidays.