For those new to the site, we have created a mechanical way of trading the leveraged ETFs using the overall hybrid score in The PPT.
Click here for prior post on how the system works.
The results have been nothing short of staggering, but every once in a while we have a draw down period, which we are currently in.
However, if you play the system, you must play the system, not just one trade. It sucks that the time I decided to start the system ends up being a drawdown, but it is what it is, you must stick it out.
As you can see from the spreadsheet image below the system has been profitable over the long haul, very profitable. However, some of the drawdowns can be straight up nasty (see green arrows for drawdown):
The system started with 100K, and now currently 646K (the current drawdown is not included, because the trade is still open). As of now the system has you short TNA from 43, down a cool 10 points. However, should we get another heavy day of selling, which will likely bring us to oversold, the drawdown in this trade will be minor compared to the overall results.
I know it has been tough for us this time around, since the market has gone up in a straight line. But, the system has not done anything wrong, we are just in a drawdown period. And, I’m willing to bet for the year, the system will once again be net positive for the year.
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Ahh, the good old days of the TNA/TZA/VXX/EDZ hybrid driven trading systems 🙂 Yes, those systems definitely showed themselves to be profitable… I remember doing the backtesting back in late 2010, was fun!
hey omen, good to see you around the parts. back to trading yet?
Aww, thanks guys, still doing the day job for now, lurking around here, doing some paper trading, trying to see what I’d like to do when I get back to the market… Need a little more discipline still, but I feel like I’m almost ready 🙂
Hey Omen…Miss you long time.
seems like it does best with high Vol. Is it possible to run a test with vix > 25 or something?
anything is possible, I’ll check with J.
By any chance have you backtested if you were to have short the TZA at the times where you would have bot TNA and vise versa? Interested because of my general skepticism of all of the leveraged ETFs
What I meant to ask inside 12631, was what is the start date and end date on the post above that starts with a dollar figure of approximately $104,104.00 and moves to $646, 003.00?
here is the link to spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ahp9kBTMZ79jdEtKTU90UGZ6bXdqMmdUTkhwMko2MkE&output=html
Drawdown Period? 4 months is kinda long. In theory, there has not been an actual Oversold (visual) in quite some time.
We’ve hit OB so many times, you’d be nuts to keep buying TZA.
I’m still in this though and playing the system to the fullest. Summer is around the corner and it’s never all that great to trade.
Maybe we’ll see an actual blue OS signal?
You don’t KEEP buyingTZA, you buy it 3 times and then stop. and wait until OS
have no idea what the fuck yer talkin bout but sounds great…cheers!
when are you going to start ppt 2.0 and implement the new OB/OS scores?
$100k to 1mil in 3-4ish years is damn impressive. (1mil has not yet been realized but it seems on pace to do so)