I hear a lot of talk about shorting solar, and that the moves are unsustainable. This may be true for a few of the names, but I believe [[FSLR]] is a beast of its own.
Why is it when FSLR catches a huge move everyone is ready to short it? Why not embrace it? I’m not here to say FSLR will hit $1000, but I do think it has more room to run.
The company is predicted to have over 100% growth for 2009. With that kind of growth it’s reasonable to pay up for the stock.
The current P/E is around 140, which in my opinion is reasonable given the growth rate, and looking at next year’s numbers the company is expected to earn $5.05/share.
Lets do a few calculations:
Current multiple of 140 X 5.05 = price target of $703.34
Egregious! Let’s use a multiple of 100:
100 X 5.05 = $505
Looking at this calculation, it’s not unreasonable to say [[FSLR]] could double from here.
Note: Check out this ETF, [[QCLN]]
Top five holdings in QCLN:
- [[LLTC]]
- [[WFR]]
- [[FSLR]]
- [[SPWR]]
- [[STP]]
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Your calculation is nonsense. There can be NO GROWTH in FSLR. They can build as many factories as they want. But there will not be enough tellurium fro them to produce their products.
As a matter of fact. FSLR needs to spend $180M per factory to build the four Malaysia factories. So far they have hardly spent the cash. They must be deciding to abandon the plans.
JJ,
remember what happened last time you shorted FSLR?
Last time I wasn’t patient enough to hold the short for long term. This time I am. Also it now makes sens that I covered my last short, just to be able to re-short at much better price this time.
What do you think after you see this chart:
http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=237017
FSLR is doomed.
FSLR hits $300 next week, your money is mine. That’s what I think.
I love situations like this when on one hand you have people saying it’s going to double because of the huge growth, and another saying there’s going to be no growth and there’s no room for it, and thus it’s really over valued.
Reminds me of the opportunity in BSC… one on hand you had people saying “what a bunch of gambling fools, the bid is at $2, and they went up to $7, there’s shorts covering that’s all that gain is”, and on the otherhand you have people saying, “how can you take a short position when another higher bid could cause the stock to double overnight”
Not quite as great of opportunity, because it will take a longer period of time to resolve, but it nears the highs and approaches a significant resistance point that it could either break through to new highs and continue it’s momentum, or bounce back and come down.
Sounds like a great opportunity for a straddle, and I can do it all with the houses money from my long side at around 210 (nibble) and 215. Personally I think there’s more upside long than downside, but in this market, I can see the all time highs being a major resistance point, and think it can move big either way from there.
GL to both of you, and thanks for the brief analysis on both sides, but I’ve decided at this point that I’ll pay to profit on either side, although I’ll look to add position to bias on one side or another depending on if it breaks new highs or bounces off. Breaking new highs=bias to the longside, and no new highs=bias to downside.
Cajun:
Buy some tellurium. Price triple every three months. Way much better than FSLR.
http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=237017
With this kind of tellurium price movement, FSLR should fall pretty soon. They will not be able to afford to buy tellurium for long.
I will be happy to triple my FSLR short if it can reach $300. I don’t think it can. Watch VNP earnings release on Monday. If their sales growth is unimpressive, that is a huge problem for FSLR. VNP supplies CdTe to FSLR and they are the exclusive supplier in the whole world.
Damn it!
With JJ all bearish on FSLR, I have no choice but to be bullish.
Let’s call a spade a spade. the stock has survived the Final Four contest, despite the tough market.
It is a winner.
Short it to (near) zero.