Volley Suspended In Time, Delivered 6 Hours Late

Believe me when I tell you I hate coming out here parroting the same shit, day in and day out. I don’t enjoy calling bulls rude names and shouting about how you’re “all wrong.” It isn’t my character.

I long for the days when I can return to my more normal intonations; that which you may recall from my earlier writings in the Peanut Gallery. Then, I rarely shouted but rather conducted my business in a manner of the most self-controlled gentlemen…save for when I was lighting NOV on fire or reveling in the victory of the latest long.

But as much as I would enjoy chilling back down and restraining myself from openly mocking the market, what else can I do in such a time as this?

Come now, until two of the clock the market was higher on really nothing but a rumor and a side of carrots. Now, we cascade lower with the Nasdaq and crude down about two percent, because of a second announcement by Sarko the American.

How can I not get riled up? This is pure idiocy.

Ignore the news here; it’s not important. What is important is the actual economy.

Did the U.S. pumping trillions of dollars into the economy correct our problems here at home? Of course not; there’s no way any small group like that found in Washington could ever hope to properly wield such a weapon, no matter how big.

So is China or Europe going to alleviate their own crises by doing the exact same thing?

The recoveries – the true recoveries – will come when the people of our countries get our collective acts together. Right now, we aren’t doing that, so no recovery.

It really is that simple.

Check your expectations, then wait patiently a while longer. But for the love of your own flesh, stop betting it on these damn announcements.

Quick, do some coke and buy stocks…

If I bought every rumor of a Euro bailout fund or saving grace maneuver that was popularized in the last year and a half, I would be down something like 50% over the same time period.

You guys are so fucking gullible, it would be laughable if it wasn’t so sad. Somebody made off like a bandit today, because some first years who haven’t cut their teeth yet were hand delivered a hard lesson about journalism and news feed.

As a rule of thumb, unless you can verify the sources through at least three major outlets, then it’s not true.

Hell, sometimes even after verifying it through three major outlets, it still isn’t true. Which is why it’s good to use bipolar outlets, like Fox and CNN, or Fox and MSNBC, or Fox and … because sources that hate each other tend to only agree on the facts.

I’ll see you “blood buyers” at the receiving end of a volley of arrows, presently in transit and set to arrive first thing tomorrow morning.

P.S. Did you like how, like clockwork, Bernanke followed my first post with a speech that detailed the threats of inflation, and not the imminent need for more monetary stimulus? That speech, in my eyes, said one thing: input costs are issue number one of the Fed’s list of “Things that need addressing.”

If you’re still running on the QE3 dream, buying PM’s and commodities, guess who doesn’t have your back right now?

Plenty of time for monetary stimulus after you’re dead and gone…

You really have to be kidding me. After that slate of news this morning, you have the gall to bid up stocks and crude oil?

Angela Merkel came out and stated point blank “no fire hose.” Angela Merkel was the biggest cheerleader for “the fire hose.” Yet you bid up equities and commodities happily as an entire continent burns.

Do you want to know what this all means? It means holders of EU based debt are in serious trouble. It means the billions of dollars being held in Greek debt (not to mention Italy and Spain and the likes of them) are circumspect. It means a lot of money is about to go static.

The U.S. dollar should be ramping here, because Europeans are going to need dollars very soon. They will need dollars to escape their problems. They will need dollars to escape their union.

And it’s not like we’ve had a spate of incredible news coming out of the economy. Manufacturing information from the Empire State was abysmal for the ump-teenth month in a row. Information is displaying yet further drawdowns in our economic output. Reported layoffs are coming in again. Yet you think now is the time to send oil catapulting to $90 /barrel?

Hell, the principle of oil going for more than $80 a barrel right now is counterproductive all around. If you think the Fed is going to jump in and save the day here with you pushing the country’s life blood to near unaffordable levels, you have another thing coming. The Fed can’t even consider acting with crude oil this resilient to adversity.

They’ll check back in at $70 /barrel oil.

Just remember, Captain Crude, you have no support here. You have zero reasons to buy up oil, yet you continue to do so. Why? You really should consider giving up this trade.

There I was, resting in comfortably in my chair on the 9th floor, when the news flashed across my screen. Anadarko has agreed to pay $4 billion to BP for its share of all “liability” of the spill.

This puts to rest a saga, in my eyes. A grand and profitable trade I underwent last year when the well blew up in the Gulf of Mexico. I bought APC near the bottom, and sold it at the beginning of this year for more than $70 a share. The gain was under 100% gains inside of a year, which annualizes to a most gargantuan victory.

I have no idea why APC agreed to settle, but I’d be curious what the most exact terms of the deal are. I can’t imagine that APC wanted to settle unless BP offered them something else to sweeten the arrangement.

I have not withheld before now that I thought APC could fight to get off Scott-free.

BP must have been getting desperate, unless they were to be hit with a grotesque negligence lawsuit. It will be interesting to witness whether or not Anadarko comes out later with a “separate” agreement or contract or partnership… with some very favorable terms.

Both stocks are sprinting higher on the news.

If you haven’t been keeping up with the healthcare debate, I understand. However, very recently something interesting happened. The Obama Administration, under the command of Kathleen Sebelius, jettisoned a component of their own healthcare law, as they realized it was unworkable.

The CLASS act of the bill was an important component, as it is what helped to make the bill deficit neutral after the first ten years. Without out it, the healthcare plan is very much a burden to the U.S. deficit, and it’s unlikely the people who passed the bill would have done so without this aspect.

This entire package is coming apart at the seams.

Before the open, crude oil was absolutely, resolutely crushed. Please remember where we are, in the grand scheme of things. Sure, maybe the economy is not about to fall off a cliff. However, to say that justifies a move back to DOW 13,000 with crude oil back above $100 /bbl?

Come now, that’s pure naiveté; look at the number of strikes hitting Europe, then tell me the economy is not weaker than it was this time last year. Look at China further manipulating their yen (yes currency traders, China is still not letting it get stronger, what a shock), then tell me the dollar should be this weak.

I am retaining all of my hedges, despite how painful it is to watch the unrealized losses stacking up, because you are all too jovial about things. This rally has been impressive.

But this too shall come to pass.

If I didn’t know any better, I’d venture a guess that you little bullish ass wipes were trying to inculcate some sort of lesson to me. Day in and day out, you push the market higher to spite me, no doubt of it.

Well the jokes on you. I’m not covering my hedges. I’ve got the necessary longs to wait this out (as unpleasant as that has been; oil is going apeshit). I can out last you kids and your stock buying fetish.

Earnings season is a long, winding road to hell; as you try to take the path in one sprint, I will wait patiently for you to fall over the edge and down the steep face of the rock.

If that means suffering some losses between then and now, I can.