Sorry, But I’ve Stopped Listening To You

I am not interested in the least about what the EU officials say they are going to do. I don’t care about any of the proposed bailouts. I’m sick of seeing Angela Merkel on television, and listening to her coarse voice spelling promises.

I’ve stopped hearing you talking about the Fed. I’m not paying attention to the fluttering, faltering stories of quantitative easing. I definitely don’t want to listen to another high minded speech about building confidence from a central banker.

You want to get me bullish?

All you need to do is give me an announcement. One, simple announcement.

That announcement doesn’t need to have any comments in it; it can be devoid of opinions or perceptions; I don’t want to hear an assessment of current events or things that have led up to this point; I don’t even care to hear about what we’re going to do going forward.

In fact, as far as I’m concerned, the less that is said the better.

The only thing I want this announcement to say is “Fed, ECB, working in tandem, purchase $(insert number)00 billion in (insert financial product here).”

You give me that, and I’ll be the biggest bullshitter you’ve ever laid eyes upon. I’ll jump up on my desk and start grabbing books off the shelves, then shred their pages and scribble the word “BULLISH” across their pieces. I’ll run to my balcony and fling the pieces into the eight winds of heaven so that every piece of shit within fifty miles of me knows, “buy.”

You give me that and I’ll buy back all my UCO…and I’ll keep on buying. I’ll go long oil on its path to $200. I’ll sell all my ERY and keep rolling into ERX. I’d even consider selling my EUO position, just because the exchange rate between the dollar and euro would be supported.

You give me that announcement, and I’m 120% long inside of two weeks, snorting up commodities like a crack whore does blow.

But shy of that, I just don’t fucking care. Because I’ve seen this donkey show more than enough times to be numb to it.

I watched last night as no less than five rumors racked across the planet in less than two hours. Two rumors of the IMF bailing out the EU (first Italy, then more generally everybody), one rumor of the Fed purchasing more MBS paper, some garbage about how a new treaty adoption could be implemented “quickly” to increase sentiment, and one piece of shit rumor about some “Elite” bonds (don’t bother asking, it was dispelled as soon as it was uttered) that would save the day.

This is all the same repackaged fish. And it smells aweful.

I’m sick of listening; I want to see. I want to see action, not hear about it. From the first, the Europeans have treated this crisis as a crisis of confidence; of sentiment. If only people felt better, then everything would be just fine. But this isn’t a crisis of confidence; a lack of confidence was just the spark, but the kerosene-soaked straw that filled the barn was and is the problem. You can’t wish fire away, assholes.

Until I see the EU successfully start to roll over their short term maturity debt, you can fuck off.

Look at the sources of the bailout rumors that are hitting this weekend.

The €545 billion splurge by the Fed on EU held MBS paper came from a fucking survey of dick holes with no visible channels to the Federal Reserve. Accompanying that rumor was an equally audacious lie about a €700 billion plus bailout just for little old Italy.

The European Stability Treaty sounds exactly like the the EFSF, save now it has an extra layer of hoops it has to jump through meaning it takes even longer to implement. Because things were so expedient we had time to spare, eh?

I would be more inclined to listen to this horseshit if it weren’t the ninth round of totally unsubstantiated hearsay. Fuck everyone; until I hear Bernanke say we’re getting a bailout personally, it isn’t happening.

In my heart, I just cannot believe that some stupid little bailout found stands a chance of easing this crisis. It is massive and front loaded. All this debt comes due all at once. How do you print that much without crushing the economy at the back end?

It’s like not balancing a check book. It doesn’t matter that you change your habits if you still have huge swaths of outstanding checks. Nobody cares that you found Jesus when the next one bounces.

I hope all finds you well, after a filling Thanksgiving day.

My own day was very festive, with a sumptuous meal that started around two post meridian and seemed to last until well after five. It was everything you could ask for, with our family spread out about dwelling areas; the kids rough housing while the parents caught up with one another.

And for the most part, I was good about avoiding work. I only snuck up to my study twice; once in the early morning and once around 4 pm.

What I saw was not so cheeful…

Europe was on fire most of yesterday, and it appears as if the flames have continued to burn through the night and into today. The euro is deflating and quickly. My EUO position is pushing closer to $20 in the pre-market. Gasoline and crude oil are also trading down.

I will be monitoring the situation periodically throughout the day. I have a list of tasks that I need to attend to throughout the morning and afternoon, so I will not be consistent. However, I will make it an effort to return to the 9th floor before the close.

I sold all of my AWK position, and my small GSVC position. Then I added ERY for $15.19.

Do not tempt this market; I know volume is light but that blade cuts both ways. And the market is most definitely NOT pricing in trouble in Germany.

Buy the dip and have a spear chucked through the chest of your first born son.

What an awesome series of manufacturing reports coming out of half of the developed world. Damn, I just cannot fathom why I ever doubted the rally in crude oil. I mean, Germany and China only saw the largest contraction in manufacturing utilization since 2009.

And to top it off with whip cream, Germany of all places could not sell three out of ten of their intended bonds. I mean, if Germany cannot issue debt, who can?

Actually, on second inspection, the Germany news is almost too ludicrous. Is this some sort of conspiracy? Or perhaps a bad joke?

Maybe some financiers got together and decided they’d add the spice of panic to the Germany recipe, hoping that Germany would rethink its “no money printing” position?

Well if they did, they’re completely crazy. The only way this news will be received is as I first phrased it; the failed Germany auction will cause all men and women to ask “if not Germany, then who?” Already, the yields on notes across Europe are jackknifing higher. And Merkel hasn’t changed her rhetoric in the slightest.

She already came out today supporting the ECB and their tight fisted approach.

Ladies and Gentlemen! Boys and Girls!

We are in trouble.

I hope you’re using this opportunity to shed those pesky long positions. This rally was sparked on a rumor of IMF intervention. This feeds into the line about the U.S. economy (and the good Dr. Ben) raining paper products on Europe and saving the planet by throwing ourselves on the global debt landmine.

Fat chance, folks.

Upon hearing word of this announcement, I leapt up from my office and ran out of the 9th floor, searching for the source. What I didn’t find was any sort of big pronouncement from the IMF itself.

News of this seems to have come from somewhere close to the Wallstreet Journal as they are the only publication I found, thus far, that mentioned it. But let’s roll with it and say the WSJ did its due diligence, even though I have no idea which IMF official announced the program.

The lines themselves are uninspiring. 500% or even 1,000% of quota is impressive sounding, until you define “quota”.

This lifeline is worth barely more than $60 billion to Italy. It’s worth about $30 billion to Spain. Funding wise, that’s probably enough to keep those two countries on their feet for 6 weeks, according to Zerohedge’s envelope math.

The amount of funding in time that this provides to the European debt problem is within the margin of error I’d associate with guessing how long Europe has before a meltdown to begin with.