Staying Cautious About Markets

I can feel the heat radiating from the stretch of my back where contact with the plush leather of the chair catches and redistributes the warmth from my coursing blood. But other than this sink of warmth, the room itself is cold and muggy. A soft grey catches scattered intervals of sunlight, taunting my home with rain.

But signs of spring are beginning to set in; just Saturday, I placed out the containers of growing herbs I keep indoors over winter. They stretched out longingly in the not-quite 70 degree weather, soaking up the rays covetously.

There are few things so satisfying as stretching out in a living room on a warm spring day, the doors all open letting the soft breeze indoors, while sipping on a gin and lemon highball made with freshly muddled mint you’ve just snipped off the plant yourself.

But Michigan being her gruff self, it would appear we have at least another week of melancholy weather to attend to before the truly enjoyable stuff sets in.

In markets, I’m naturally irritated by the rally trying to kick back off again. No one likes to miss out on gains, and the appearance of defeat gets under my skin especially. But I can’t bring myself to run back into the market. I made a small purchase of BAS after their earnings, and a buy of RGR before that, but that’s been it.

Holding down with this cash takes a firm level of dedication. It is not easy and constantly tempts to be spent. This is part of maturity and patience – something which plenty of people never seem to develop. It’s made easier though when remembering last year, and the year before, when anyone caught long without a cash position was cudgeled relentlessly going into the summer.

I am eyeing the green numbers of the tape with a wary stare. For now, the only piece missing for a selloff is the presence of enough longs to precipitate it. Will the financial institutions help push their clients into that disposition just as prudence indicates the opposite?

After all, you can’t have a fox hunt without a fox.