I demand cheap and abundant crude oil, like it were my birth right.
I demand it because it means the revitalization of this country.
I demand it because it means the broken dreams of our enemies.
I demand it because it will make me lots of money.
But what I demand won’t necessarily come to fruition here. While our economy has obviously slowed, that may already be accounted for, in the hearts and minds of oil traders.
This may be the last chance for the commodity markets to break down further; if crude can’t cave back below $80 again, I would be foolish to ignore the presence of a forming level in the pricing.
And maybe that’s where oil should be. Cramer may have been correct; shy of total destruction, crude can trade down into the $80’s after you flush out the speculators.
But I want, very much, to believe it’s good for more than that. I want to believe that oil can go at least into the $70’s.
This is the last good chance for that. Next week will tell whether or not it can be done.
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Cameco bot Hathor Exploration (Hat.to) this morning as well. Payed a premium. Been following HAT for a while, good addition. I like the sign that Cameco is still looking to grow as well.
I was still holding a bunch too, but 2 years ago, I had about 6 times as much…
Timing is everything, but I’m still pleased to see this. Do you have other Canadian uranium juniors that you are into?
thats why i was lookin at nat gas, it seemed like the logical choise, would lower r dependency on foriegn fuel. its what every administration has said they wanted to do since as long as i can remember.
my one problem, is that rbob needs to stay in this range. gas just went back up 6 more cents last night. who ever controls the price and the rbob brought it down just in time for people who need disposable cash to get the kids “back to school”,so it couldnt have stayed up briskly like it was before the”going back to school”. now on to why oil will not see the 70’s,simple because rbobs price, reflects just how much monthly reciepts on federal taxes are needed just to stay scalp barely above water, now if oil is trading @,or in the 70’s, then the rbob would reflect it, barring a man made gas shortage which could pose as the excuse to keep rbob high. but all in all if oil were trading in the 70’s,high 60’s just think how low rbob would go,and that would be terrible for the fed gov. they depend so much on those monthly”road fuel taxes” it isnt funny. so low oil, high rbob,or low oil, low rbob? even though we would love to have low fuel and food costs, it just wouldnt benefit them as much, and to hell with us. they already have broken dreams,look around they done a good job
You’re dreaming Sir. Too many people around the world want to live a good life. For the foreseeable future, that requires hydrocarbons. Even if the world brought on all of the renewables like nuclear, solar, wind, tidal, and hydro, there still would be great upward price pressures on fossil fuels. Modern life requires it, and a whole lot of people want to live int the 21 century. Disclosure: long and overweight oil, nat gas, nuclear, and refiners.
I think that’s the gist of the argument that was used for higher housing prices.
But for now you don’t have to sign a non-verified income loan agreement to fill up your tank. Not yet anyways.
There may be more similarities than I thought. Read the abstract in this link and see if that doesn’t bring back bad memories:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1429501
Woah, excellent find.
I’ve only had a chance to skim it. The Enron business model analysis at the end was interesting too.
I’ll definitely need to sit down and read that thing in its entirety.
OK, I assume you’ve found the full document since you make mention of the Enron stuff. I was going to send it to you if you didn’t have the full version already.
I don’t think this is anything we can get all John Paulson over, but it may be something to look into. The idea is this sets up like suprime mortgages but on a smaller scale. Inflated oil and gas reserves serve as the increasing housing price similarity. Over-leveraged, inexperienced operating companies serve the role as suprime borrowers.
Now we need to focus on where this could blow up. Obviously the first place to look are the gas shales that have seen a lot of speculation activity. But more than that we need a real catalyst in one of those regions.
I present to you the following:
http://www.timesleader.com/news/US-to-cut-estimate-of-Marcellus-Shale-gas-reserves-.html
Basically the USGS reduces its estimate of NG reserves in the Marcellus shale to 84 Tcf. Previously the EIA had an estimate of 410 Tcf. I dare say an 80% reduction in potential reserves will make people start thinking. Also, three companies (RRC, GDP, and COG) have been subpoenaed by the NY Attorney General’s office on how they determine their reserves.
I doubt the total amount of financing related to the Marcellus shale would put a dent in any big bank. But there may be some smaller banks out there trying to hitch a ride on the shale gas gravy train that got their shit over-extended in this.
Touche. Good point. I could see that was a bubble. Own vs. rent was a clear distinction. Maybe you’re right, but once you burn oil it’s gone (for the most part), and 2 billion upwardly mobile poor people will put some pressure on those supplies. I’m not looking at bubble pricing to make money. I’m just thinking that prices will be stable to up for the long term.
Why should anyone who hold the rights to the oil pump it up at lower prices when you can leave it and sell it for more later. Oil in the ground is money in the bank. They will pump just enough to pay the bills. OPEC is not stupid they know that the western world is addicted to oil. No one stopped driving when oil was 110. So that is where it will go again sooner or later.
You’re alive today. The middle east doesn’t have the luxury to cut back production and wait for tomorrow.
People didn’t stop totally, but they cut back where it mattered.
Trading oil has confounded me for years (it is on my no trade list). I do like the major E&P companies (COP, CVX, XOM …) for the long term but shorter term supply & demand seen to vacillate wildly.