So let’s get this straight. When Libya started this affair earlier this year, oil prices skyrocketed on fears of an oil supply disruption. Despite the fact that all oil needs continued to be met, oil just had to go above $100 because “that evil Qaddafi…”
But now, we have the rebels pushing clean into Tripoli in a one day offensive, the dictator is nowhere to be found, and wouldn’t you know it, oil is higher because “Jackson hole’s a commin’…”
Assholes, can you stop holding onto oil already? What is it going to take to get a push below $80?
Look, do you want to know how many Libyans faithful to Qaddafi remain in Libya? The answer is obviously not many.
How do I have the gumption to just jump out here and say that? Well, because I watched the footage of the fighting. And the Libyan rebels looked terrible at it. Absolutely God-awful, in fact.
This weekend, in between drinking with a group of friends, I watched as Libyans dressed in their regular daily apparel; guys who looked like if they weren’t busy fighting a revolution would have otherwise been manning their families 7/11 store counter; waltz around the middle of Libyan streets, clumsily, not even bothering to find cover, as they fired guns wildly at unseen enemies. I watched kids hanging out on tanks that they had obviously just learned how to operate. I watched a dude fight for his country’s freedom in a navy blue collared shirt.
If these people had encountered any real loyalist force, presumably of military origins, they would have got their shit rocked.
So you’ve got to assume at this point that there are just an overwhelming number of opposition members; so many that anyone in that country who actually has been trained to fight; has decided it’s not a winning strategy.
More importantly, the rebels hold the oil ports and strategic locations. They are going to keep those facilities on full operating capacity. After all, they have a rebuilding campaign to pay for.
So France’s oil needs will be met in full. Now Europe can stop dicking around in our oil markets and leave Canada’s precious resources to their rightful owners…Americans.
Just kidding Canadians…
But nope, now we get an oil spike into the week because people are just positive that Bernanke is going to paper bomb the shit out of this country.
The sad thing is they’re probably right. I’m going to have to unwind UCO. But it would have been nice to at least get some action in the oil markets that reflects the favorable developments coming out of Libya.
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Aren’t the rebels a “coalition” rather than a unified front. Now that Qaddafi is gone what will hold them together? I think the real civil war begins soon and this will prop up oil as the various coalition members try to usurp each other.
But that is a speculation, not a fact. If you are right, then sure oil production may come under heat. But if you want to be realistic about it, there are thousands of coalitions in this world with competing interests who still manage to work together while attempting to usurp power from one another.
Lots of European countries come to mind. Democrats and Republicans here at home also operate in a sort of coalition at times, although not formally.
As long as one of the elements in Libya doesn’t have a goal of “shut-down-oil-production” then they’re all going to need the money so ramping up oil productivity is a goal they can all agree.
Yes there are many coalitions in history, but I wouldn’t look to a western democracy to see how this plays out in country formerly run by a dictator. I think Iraq would be a better example and that place is only barely functioning because thousands of US troops are on the ground. I would expect tribal loyalties to pay a key role along with the nations that border Libya (Egypt and Algeria the most important) http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Backchannels/2011/0224/Libya-tribes-Who-s-who
Maybe, but here Libya differs from Iraq in that Libyans decided to uprise largely on their own. In Iraq, they were forced to make the choice so the tribes had nothing in common, and there was a lot more resentment between even the victors, I think.
We are not occupying Libya and the Libyans have largely won this battle for themselves. That smacks of cooperation and compromise.
Selling Libyan oil to rebuild the country? More likely stealing the proceeds….
I don’t care if they force Gaddafi’s kids to pump the shit in chains, as long as it makes it to market.
Funniest image of the weekend was the skinny dude manning the ak-ak gun and smiling for the cameras.
It was readily apparent he had no clue as to the direction or operation of the weapon.
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