I’m circling underneath like a hungry shark off Lemming Ledge; my cash is armed and ready to be sunk into whatever might take the plunge.
In opposition to the piss poor reasoning of idiot fund managers, shorting the dollar hear because they think it will take a hit during a default, I am plush with cash simply because it isn’t true.
Let me break down for you the sequence of events that will unfold should the U.S. fail to make good on its debts.
The U.S. will announce the checks are not going out.
Repo markets and similar treasury backed deals will be reassessed. Collateral calls will be made.
Suddenly deprived of cash, people will send to withdrawal from their retirement accounts (what’s left of them).
Fund managers and financiers suddenly overwhelmed by requests for money orders will discover they don’t have enough to make the obligations.
These fund managers will then go to market to liquidate holdings, across the board.
And the U.S. dollar will strengthen significantly as forced liquidations send markets lower.
With their poorly thought out bets and “Fed Positioning” coming back up into their faces, anyone shorting the USD will release like a 5 year old who’s discovered their first jelly fish at the beach.
And that is when I will have my fill.
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its already happening. US is liquidating CND positions pushing CAD lower on FX.
you think we’re do for one more flush from here? no faith that a fix can be made at this point?
I just look to the Euro situaiton and they have no options all the countries are backed into a corner
I have enough faith to hold half long.
But looking at euro CDS spreads, coupled with this shit here at home, yeah, I’d say we’re getting a flush.
i suspect a rally on the debt ceiling… then the flush on econimic reality
just wondering if they flush before jackson hole or not
lots of fed speak about inflationesing in the districts teeing up QE3