iBankCoin
Joined Apr 19, 2009
721 Blog Posts

Memory of Times’ Repast

The Persistance of Memory
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The $HUI bounced back again today, but I’m not even going to bother posting the pic… I was only about nine points, and believe me, we’ve a way to go before we’re no longer in need of Deep Woods Off!  We’re still not at the 50-200 day EMA cross, but it remains imminent.  More tomorrow there…

No, tonight, I’m going to look at something completely different.   It was stock that that le Monsieur was touting earlier this year, for it’s tasty goodness (Brad)  and franchisable content.   Even though Bravo Brio Restaurant Group (BBRG on the Nazzy) are based in bland old Columbus Ohio, I think this group may be spicing things up over the last couple of days, as its made a nice breakout to all time highs:

You will note that the stock is quite a bit overbought at this juncture, and so I will hold off on grabbing some until a more opportune moment — likely coinciding with a return to that breakout line at about $23.20 or so.  If you see it returning to that level, do not visit one of BBRG’s restaurants that day, as it is likely I will be in their “celebrating” cowboy-style, with my six-guns a-twirling, bourbon whiskey (corkage fee applied) a-chugging, and surly dancing girls atop my lap.

Things could get ugly in the next few days.   Let’s make that our them for the summer, shall we?  Happy ciao’ing.

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Back to Support

back supprt

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Interesting that it took us only six days for $HUI to move back to support and re-test the lows of the other day.  Interesting as well that the miners held support despite the lower values of both underlying metals (Silver and Gold).

Let’s have a look at that chart again:

Let’s not quibble, here… we again stand on the edge of the knife.  Note how close we are to a 50-200-day EMA cross over. That would not be a good sign for anyone, and we are going to need a heck of a rally to pull those two nearing lovers apart again. RSI continues in our favor– if only moderately so — even as the slow stochastic is pointed firmly in a southerly direction.

I’m not going to vacillate here.  We should be ready to cut our positions to where we are comfortable with another 50 point southerly move in the $HUI. If we break support at $494-5 or so, then I think we will be headed that way.

All that said, today’s postive divergence action in the miners may indicate at least a short term bottoming in the downward action.  Our trusty negative ETF for silver — ZSL — has registerd three “overbought” days in a row on The PPT.  This is unprecedented in the history of The PPT, albeit a relatively short data set.  We also saw the iShares Gold ETF (IAU) show up on the Wall Street Journal’s Buying on Weakness charts, along with both GG and SLW — two very popular miners in gold and silver.  All of these indicate an appetite for miners that may be setting aside the current fluctuations in the underlying metal.

What’s apparent, however, is that we will know very soon what direction we are going in.   We cannot remain at the support level forever.  We shall either fail here, or make another attempt at the 200-day EMA.   The action from there will determine our more intermediate term prospects.

Keep an eye on the Dollar Index.  It looked sickly again today, and if it breaks down through that $75.20 support, we may have “game on” once again in the shiny metal sector.

God bless.

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Oz Will Abide!

dude
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Just a brief word tonight my friends, as I am exhausted. I finally flew home this evening after braving multiple funnel clouds in the Mitten State, and what would you know…….?

We had a bit of a shaky landing with lots of crosswinds, and I just chalked that up to a stormy afternoon in the Big Lou, until we taxied to a stop and got an unusual send off from the stewardess.  Oddly, she urged us to,

“Please GTFO the plane as quickly and quietly as possible…”

Not being used to such (blatant) rude treatment from Delta, I grew suspicious.  Surely enough, when I stepped out of the gate doorway after deplaning, I heard the sirens.   What’s more, I saw a slowly rotating black cloud positioned right on top of our plane.   It continued to rotate for some ten minutes after our departure, before finally dissipating.

The community got some Tornado, however, and got it good.

In the PM market, we got some moves to resistance, which I was expecting.  What was positive, however, was the strong move of many golds, including my beloved ANV and AAU, respectively.

Tomorrow is more ‘wait and see’ like yesterday morning’s action was, so let’s not lose the farm reaching here. I am not ready to give the dollar any credit, like some.

Something’s coming.  I’m holding tight and eating sammitch.

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Tornadic Jacksonians

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W773ZPJhcVw&feature=related 450 300]

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Flying around the Central Mitten today via large American Sedan, one cannot help but be astounded by the plethora of funnel clouds in so many seemingly peaceful rural burgs these days.  If Mother Nature cannot leave lie a town known for 361 days of Christmas (despite its Mary Shelley-esque name) and not one but two Wiener Schnitzel Emporiums, then I just don’t know what the world is coming to.  I tell you, if this road trip gets any more adventuresome, it may take me four days to hitch hike from Saginaw all the way home.

Things were no less tornadic in the precious metal miners markets today, with that rally off support finally coming through for us:

Even more mucho blasto than Baby $HUI, however, were my faithful Jacksonians, with SLW, EXK, ANV, PAAS, SSRI, EGO and even TCK up anywhere from 5% to 9% today.

And not to be overly boastful, but I thought it quite shiny that my final call of yesterday’s post — that laggard AG would catch up to it’s brethren in rapid fashion — came through like a dolorous Dakota Fanning in a crying scene, to the tune of almost 11% in cash gains.  Note the chart, and the accompanying caveat:

Note well my easily excitable Adderall dependents — one strong day does not a rally make.  As you can see above, many many of our Jacksonians are banging their heads on 20 and 50-day EMA’s.   I would not be surprised at all, therefore, to see a pullback from these levels, and perhaps one all the way back to the 500 level on the Baby $HUI.

Most likely we’ll see the most trouble at the old breakout line on the $HUI — at $519 give or take a smidge.   Be aware of your levels and do not get caught flat-footed.   In the meantime, silver still looks like the recovery drug, although traditionally hot money gold plays like ANV (up 8.83% today) are coming in close behind.

Be safe out there, and keep your helmets on.

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Held Service

Silver Tennis Ball
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Scrappy day today for our embattled $HUI, but one that may prove a turning in the match for many of its components, especially in the silver section.   First, today’s $HUI chart doesn’t look all that different than last Friday’s… save for one important difference that should be readily apparent:

It may not be so readily apparent to you, but I have four kids, and am, de facto, already a parent.

So too, one of the $HUI’s components seems to also hearing the clarion call of support.  This weekly chart of SLW shows both the support zone we are approaching as well as the egregious levels of oversold-edness (sic) that we have not encountered since the Summer of Recovery, way back in ’09.

Other smaller silver players showed similar verve today, including EXK and MVG.  If it’s true that the selling is done in the PM’s, my warrant is that the proof will show up in the silver miners first, as they were the most bloodied in the recent “adjustment.”   In fact, if I were a betting man (I’m not), I’d look for fellow mojo stock, AG to join his brothers tomorrow.

Best to you all.

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The State Of The Jakeography

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UjsXo9l6I8 450 300]

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It’s probably a good thing that I didn’t post last Thursday or Friday, as I don’t think any of my advice would have been either financially profitable or mentally soothing to any of you.

The reason I’d have been no use to you is I would have had you stand still like wooden statues carved by lonely puppeteers looking for companionship and later, kindling.  We are all, after all, kindling, and the important point is to make life more affable for those around you, beginning with your family and radiating out to the farthest reaches of humanity and the Animal Kingdoms.

It’s no cliche to admit that it often takes money to achieve such goals, and what we are doing here is trying to help you retain and build your allotted sums, thereby making you a more useful engine — in the full Sodoresque sense — to yourself and your neighbors.   In that vein it’s just as important to protect principal in times of decline as it is to maximize returns in times of advantage.

Which brings us to tonight’s — and perhaps this week’s and month’s — most important chart.   You’ve seen me put great store in the Amex Gold Bug Index — known as the $HUI (pronounced “Huey” in these parts) — with regard to the state of gold and silver stocks as a whole.  I believe this “unhedged” miner index shows us the best state of the gold and silver stock universe, and frankly, I think we are on the razor’s edge at this juncture.  Attend to the daily chart:

As you can see, we are well below the 200-day EMA (almost 7% now) and, more important, we closed just a tad below the long term support line.   Given that support lines are not “exact science” and that traders like to use them to scare out tech watchers to collect easy cash, I’m not yet convinced that the above spells “DOOM” in capital letters.

For instance, we toyed with $495 (the real line, in my opinion) all day on Friday and yet closed above it on Friday, despite strength in the dollar.  Also, the 5-day  RSI (top stochastic) is showing a positive divergence over the last three days.

But let’s not kid ourselves, huh?  If we cannot stay above this long term support at $495, the next stop is $475, and quite possibly, $450.

So let’s keep our eyes open, shall we?  You should be at anywhere from 25%-50% of your core right now, depending on your risk tolerance, if you are following my long term plan.  Therefore, this is either an opportunity to add some for a turn to at least $520 on the $HUI, or to shorten the leash even more for a likely drop the same measure to the negative — at $470-75.

Hang in there, brighter days still remain ahead of us.

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