Regarding the Morte D’Arthur

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpA_5a0miWk 450 300]

Quite possibly the “Best Music/Worst Video” combination of all time

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At the end of the Sir Thomas Malory’s Le Morte d’Arthur, the famed British hero King Arthur is transported back to an enchanted island to recover from his mortal wounds after the Battle of Camman  and perhaps be frozen in time for the next time England might need it’s hero king.

Some say he did come back– as Mick Jagger, or more likely the closer kin — Welshman Tom Jones– but that’s only idle speculation.  The important bit to remember here is that enchanted isle was called “Avalon, the Island of Fortune. ”   Some of you who are on The PPT may think sometimes that all of my picks have gone to a magical island to recover from their mortal wounds.  Perhaps they too will reappear someday when Chess or Rage or le Fly are having a bit of a dry spell.

That too may be idle speculation, but in the meantime, there’s a rare earth metal stock that I’ve been accumulating as of late, now to the tune of 30 kilotons, mostly in the low to mid $2 range.  It is of course called Avalon (AVL), and may finally be revealing itself as the font of good fortune I expected after many a day of bouncing around like a malfeasant pinball.

You’ll note in the chart below, that I marked an original consolidation point upon which I thought AVL might rest for a bit after rallying off it’s lows in October, hitting resistance at the old breakdown point (about $4) in early November, and then making a higher low in late November.

As the stock rallied back above that mid-consolidation line in early December, you will recall that I expected it to base there on the consolidation line.  Well that didn’t happen, at least not for very long, and the stock actually began breaking down again.  It eventually broke down below the “higher low” area all the way to the October lows before rallying once again on strong volume.   Note all that progress in the chart below:

Now the question begs — did we just experience a double bottom in these cursed rare earth metals?  If you look at REE, your answer might surely be “hells yes!”  Checking QRM, however, and you might consider the jury still in the anteroom.

What I can see, however, from the above chart is that we have some pretty helpful guideposts available.  If what we’re seeing on the past two high volume days has been the first two legs of the three white soldier candlestick pattern, we’ll see AVL‘s price burst above that consolidation line that so effectively served as our ceiling today.   Since this is a bullish reversal pattern, it should mean continuation after a bit of consolidation, so we might venture some additional buying in that case.

If however we do not get any follow through on the last two days momentum, we know that the consolidation line is acting as resistance.  If we really do have a double bottom pattern here, then we likely will not see another low below the most recent “DB” lows, and you’ll rather have a “rest,” followed by a final break of the resistance.  Given the volume of the last two days, I think that’s the more likely bet.

As an aside… my “Magnificent 7” 2012 picks, including Pick of the Year UPS, as well as AG, COP, DE, MON, PBR and RGLD, are up 5.9% collectively so far this year, and that’s not including dividends, which on some of those can be a significant sweetner.   MON is in the lead as far as top performers, with 12.5%, followed by AG and PBR with 8.5% each.  My two laggards are UPS and COP, with 0.4% and o.1% returns, respectively, thus far this year.  This does not include either stock’s phat dividends of course.

I’m going to be in and out the rest of the week, meeting with buyers, so I may be scarce, but will endeavor to visit at least in the evenings.   My best to you all.

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I’m on the road again, folks, so this is going to be a rant free review of a recent pick.  It’s been a little bit over a week since I put this blog post out showing what levels I was looking for to mark a Monsanto (MON) to make a Monster breakout.   If you recall, the original weekly chart looked like this:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now look at what that weekly chart looks like only a few trading days later:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While there’s still plenty of room left for this to run on the weekly (note the circled stochastics), I think the ceiling is here very soon for the near term as you can note on the daily below:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Depending on how much of a pullback we get in the near term (if the dollar takes off, for example) we may drop back enough to fill that gap.  Keep in mind, however that the more likely pullback will be the 61.8% fibonacci line on the weekly ($74.88).

Best to you all!

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A little more creepy, three and half years later?

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Small plebs, I can see now why my good friend, le Monsieur de la Mosca, supported the inexperienced young  Senator from Illinois way back in the day when we knew little about him other than that he sported a dimwitted hairplugged running mate that did not dog sled, rassle bear, or wear a brassiere.   You see, my friend is very perceptive, and seeking a strong hand in the Executive Branch in our time of trouble, he saw the inner-Generalissimo in the fresh faced Barack Obama.  He knew this guy was not going to be bothered by any such niceties as separation of powers, or heck, eveen recognition of any other powers in our triune system.

And so today, we recognize that the Monsieur’s perspicacity has won out.   The drumbeat that began with an increasingly monarchial delegation of legislative power to the President’s various bureaucratic armies at DOJ, EPA, FDA, TSA, DOE, etc. has now culminated in an unprecedented display of Caesarian flair.  

 Leveraging the work of his long expelled Democrat Congress of 2006-2010, the Emperor has now done the good work “for the people” by ignoring the Senate’s inquiries regarding the new Dodd-Frank Bank Bill-created Orwellian New-Speak-monikered Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and installing a “Czar” who will now benevolantly overlook our every credit card transaction, from your innocuous swipes at the gas station to your most illicit anonymous internet transaction. 

 Gosh forbid you should not know what you are doing with those credit cards that have been around since the early-1950’s boys and girls!   Don’t worry, though Papa-Doc Barack’s main man, deposed Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray — aka,  “The Fat Ohio Farmers’ Elliot Spitzer” — will be holding your hand every step of the way.  Just don’t you dare try to break that hand grip, though, boys and girls.

Not happy with that one questionable “recess appointment,” (made when Congress was not actually in recess!), however, Caesar Obamustus also decided he was tired of waiting for the Senate to approve his three hard left candidates to the already newsworthy National Labor Relations Board (NRLB) of Boeing Aircraft meddling fame.  Again, this unprecendented assertion of Executive power provoked questions of dicatatorial/monarchial transition across the Republic.

The real question, however, is why would an embattled President take such broad risks now, given the sordid reputation of these installed parties?  The cynical answer?  To create a political battle that will make the POTUS an aggrieved victim during an election year.  This would be a confirmation that the President believes the economy will be of little help to him in 2012, and that the “full-populist” Chavista appeal is his only angle.   Moreover, like Chavez early on in his populist socialist campaigns, the President knows he has most of the press in his pocket… at least today.  But will that be enough to carry him through to November?

Only the advancing electoral process will tell.  My bet?  The press will get sick of covering  for this kind of Executive excess.  He’ll keep the hard-liners like Paul Krugman and EJ Dionne, but some of the more traditional populist lefties will start to break from the fugue soon, and begin questioning the Emperor’s “new” prêt-à-porter selections….

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Whether it’s the current political imbroglio, or perhaps the “great news” coming out of the employment front, the dollar has decided to break back out of its recent consolidation-retrace and blast ahead nearly 75 cents on the DX Index.  Interestingly, gold and silver are not taking this big move very hard, with most of my miners down between 1.0%-2.5% (which is de minimus in our world) and even AGQ (double silver) only down about 2%.

That said, this rebound will likely last for a couple of days given my target for the dollar here at $81.50 or thereabouts, and I will likely lighten up on some of my miner holdings as a result.  I shaved a little bit of ERX yesterday and will take some more of that down as well.  One doesn’t want to be holding double-ETF’s in this environment.  I think I will be targeting around 50% cash so that I will have dry powder for when the dollar turns again.  I’ll make my moves on any retrace of the dollar today.

Best to you all.

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It’s uncanny, isn’t it?  Jakerodamus provides you, just days ago, with predictions– like Rick Santorum coming in a very close second to Romney in Iowa– and poof!, that prediction comes true!   Recall also, that I predicted the same Santorum will come in a more distant, but still surprising, second in New Hampshire.   The rubber match will be South Carolina, which will force some sort of confrontation and quite possibly a mutual detente between those two leaders through the remaining primaries.  

What else did I say?  Oh yeah, something about gold, silver and earl, right?  So far, so good.

I’m probably going to bail on the ERX trade tomorrow, however, as I think we might get one or two more days of “jack” before that thing bangs against that $55 resistance and comes back down to fill that gap at around $47-ish:

 

 

I will also shave some NUGT tomorrow, although I think there are still some very good charts out there in the gold and silver, including AG, ANV, BAA, and EXK, and RGLD.  My little coal play, PCX also looks like it has some room to run, stochastically speaking.

To summarize, I am not ready throw the towel in on this grand first day leap, but I’m also playing “tight” right now, and keeping a keen sharp and wizened eye (of the sorcerer, Jakerodamus) on the dollar.  Make no mistake, the dollar will tell our tale here, good or bad.   If the dollar drops below $79.30, or if gold breaks above $1620, I’ll be adding again.

Best to you all.

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There’s something symmetric about this year’s number “2012” isn’t there?  February 2nd, 12th, 20th and 22nd and December 2nd, 12th, 20th, and 22nd are going to be kind of cool for numbers geeks looking for auspicious dates upon which to get married or receive ass tattoos, perhaps.   Maybe the Mayans will come through with a nice atmosphere sucking asteroid strike on one of those days as well?   That would be special, no?

Anyway, without much further ado, I will set forth some of my predictions for the next 365 days, should we get all of them…

• The Giants will luck their way into the playoffs thanks to the incompetence of the 2011 NFC East, and because God wants to punish the Ryan Brothers.  They will lose in the first round to the far more deserving Atlanta Flackons (sic).
• Jerry Jones will publicly admonish, but keep his Ginger Head Coach, Jason Garrett.
• Rick Santorum will come in second to Mitt Romney in the Iowa Caucuses, and then gain enough momentum to place a distant second to Romney in New Hampshire.
• Santorum wins in a tight race in South Carolina, prompting Romney to offer him the Veep slot two months prior to the convention in order to lock down the wary evangelical vote.
• Tim Pawlenty’s head explodes simultaneous with Pat Robertson’s.  Pawlenty for “woulda shoulda coulda”  because he dropped out too early,  and Robertson upon realizing the GOP is running a Mormon-Catholic ticket.
• The New Orleans Saints win the Superbowl over the New England Patriots in Indianapolis.
• Indianapolis (Colts) take Andrew Luck with the first round pick and keep Peyton Manning… for now.
• The U.S. dollar peaks at $81.50 on the DX-Y Index, and proceeds to break down below the April ’08 lows (sub- $72.00) by September.
• Gold breaks $2,000.00 by April, followed by Silver breaking its old highs in May.
• With the drop in the dollar, and the prospect of the end of the Obama Error, the market goes dipschit, peaking at 14,000 in the Dow and 1700 on the S&P before everyone realizes we’re running on fumes, and we sell off after the 2012 elections.
• The 2012 Presidential Election if one of the nastiest on record.  Obama drops his class warfare rhetoric as a losing strategy and takes on the First Victim status.  David Axelrod wheels out mystery women on Mitt Romney and the Veep candidate (presumably, Santorum).
• Sarah Palin is a lighting rod, playing the black hat for the GOP, pointing out every government takeover and socialist move passed over the last five years (including the last two years of the Bush Administration).  Obamacare will become a millstone on the President’s neck as more unintended consequences arise, and the forced coverage purchase laws are declared un-Constitutional.
• The Euro stays a viable currency, but Greece, Spain and Portugal drop out of the union.   Italy’s and Ireland’s banking system are saved by British and German investors and stays in the European Union with new manacles.
• President Obama becomes increasingly disassociated with his re-election and by the time he loses to Romney in November, he will have convinced himself — and his true believers — that he will be a more effective member of the Democrat party out of office.

• Romney’s acceptance speech will be affable and conciliatory, hoping to mend the divisiveness of the past six years.  Neither the Tea Party nor the Hard Left will be very happy about the results
• Besides UPS, my best picks of the year will be COP, MON, AG, RGLD, DE and PBR.

And now, the kickoff!   Happy New Year and Geauuuuux Giants!

 

 

 

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3G9MIJpJbY&feature=player_embedded#! 450 300]

If you are a fan of college hoops, you have to watch this one…

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My first prediction of 2012 (less one day) — #3 Kentucky beats #4 Louisville in the Rivalry Game, but does not cover the 12.5 pt spread.

More relevant stuff tomorrow.   Thanks for indulging me…

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