Patriots’ Bum Rushed!

 

 

 

 

The Secret To Taking Out the Patriots Next Sunday?

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Teahouse ain’t gonna like it, but…. what’s a fellah gonna do when he finds a graphic like that out on Twitter?

But hey, let’s put these Superbowl squabbles aside for now and bask in the glow of some relatively overbought, but still promising markets.  From yesterday, some of my bigs, including ANV, RGLD and AXU just did not want to give up their marches northward even with the brief spurt of the dollar and the commensurate minor shellacking of the precious metal commodity markets.  Heck, even SLW, AG and EXK, my silver darlings, did not give up much today, despite precipitously overbought conditions.

That leaves us with a bit of a problem, however, as we don’t want to enter or even add to these great weekly stories until we get a bit more of a blowoff.   This predicament is not wholly PM-restricted either, as  I am hoping for the same pullback in my recently relentless “Stock of the Year” pick, UPS, and my Seventh Samurai servant, MON, as well.

Luckily, I have another Samurai that has been taking a bit of a rest lo these last three trading days, and coincidentally, it happens to be my best performer of the year.  Yes ladies and gents, that odd post title did stand for something… the ubiquitous PBR, which hit exactly at that $32 resistance I mentioned when I first recc’ed it, and, like a good Brasilian trophy wife, has sold back in the most delicate manor.  Note how the 20-day has now met the 200-day EMA in this nascent recovery of 2012?

 

 

 

 

      I think we may have one, and perhaps two more days of consolidation left in this girl from Ipanema, and I’m hoping for an additional pickup in the $29.25 area, perhaps tomorrow sometime.   I think earl is already starting to take up it’s part in the “liquidity wheel” along with gold and silver.  This darling will continue to benefit, as will we all.

My best to you.

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Gentlemen, Start Your Engines!

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I don’t generally do the intentionally provocative headline unless I’m trying to get your attention.  And usually, I’m only trying to get your serious attention on the breaking political stuff.  Very rarely do I pound the table on the market picks, unless I think we’ve entered a special “sweet zone” where we should collectively be taking advantage.

I believe this may be one of those times.

Let’s start with the commodity gold ($GOLD) weekly chart to show where it all began last week.  I’m going to use the weeklies on all of these mostly to show the consolidations and the breakouts, and also to show how much room this thing still has to run before it gets RSI oversold.   The gold weekly broke out of a consolidation flag that has been forming since September:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now let’s look at silver, via the double silver ETF $AGQ, where we are back above that first resistance support line after undergoing an RSI-divergence (again) since September:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last, let’s have a look at the gold bug index $HUI which shows us what’s going on with the major miners.  Note that we’ve been in a consolidating channel for almost 17 months now, and we have taken off from the most recent bottoming with a strong weekly push:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think that failed channel breakout from early September that has now consolidated into a flag pattern within the larger horizontal channel means that Baby $HUI is readying itself for a final breakout to the next level.  Again, the abundant room left in the RSI and the other stochastics also give me some comfort here.

Now there’s a lot of room to make money in a cornucopia of names here, and– again– I’m showing you the weeklies to indicate that there’s time left for you here, especially in the traditionally strong names like AG, EXK, SLW, ANV, AUY, and even the larger players like GG and ABX.  If you are not in any of them yet, then I would certainly make sure I had a position in SIL, GDX and GDXJ in order to cover the industry as completely as possible.

As for my favorites right now, I’ll give you a couple that I think you can buy “rain or shine” tomorrow because they’ve got so much “mo” behind them right now.  The first is my long time favorite and Jacksonian, RGLD:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Again, there’s just so much power in that lift off the floor.  You can wait, of course, to see if we break out of that triangle, but I think that volume and price action from last week are indicating that we may get out of it as early as this week.

My other “immediate” pick is Alexco Resource Co (AXU), which I have not mentioned in at least a year.  Alexco, however is betraying a consolidation pattern almost as toothsome as the one AUY broke out of late last year.  As you can see, this one’s bumping it’s head on the hypotenuse ceiling of that triangle.  I think with anything close to the volume of last week, that ceiling is history.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Enjoy, and partake, if you like.  Despite the temporary winds against us right now, I don’t think we’ve seen an opportunity like this in almost 18 months.  Make hay while that sun still shines.

Best to you all.

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Monument Circle, Indianapolis, Complete with Super-Classy, Monster Roman Numeral Decor

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The precious metal sector has gone HAM, as we’ve discussed ad nauseum here these last few days.  I’m not a big crower, as I take the “That’s Life” Sinatra-version view of this crazy stock picking game.  In fact, if anything I’m ticked that I got caught with only 60% exposure to my favourite stocks in the PM sector, and having ditched my two internally leveraged stocks (AGQ and NUGT) only the day before this anti-grapist surge.  That said, my port is still well above even my Seven Samurai picks (currently at +11.4%) as of the first of the year, so things are good.

I also think I called the dollar top to within pennies (one of my predictions was that the dollar would fail at $81.50).   I think it has a bit to go, even as it may take a rest here to bounce on the support that has now become resistance (#2):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think we may get a bit of a pause here, but not much.  I will be adding on pullbacks and all the usual names will be good.

Let me take this opportunity, then, to point out my two “A” and “B” best PM stocks for the current moment.  I’ll do “B” first and admit right off that Banro — BAA is in fact, a Congo miner.  I make an exception, at least temporarily, to my rule about not taking too much political risk by noting that it controls over 2500 square kilometers of rich African resource land, and that it was incorporated (and still resides) in Toronto, Canada in 1951.  That’s a lot of embedded expertise and a lot of paid off pols in the Congo.  Consider it barrier to entry.

In any case it’s the chart I like, and when it gets back over $5, it’s going places:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yamana (AUY), my second attractive Toronto-based player, seemingly breaks my rules because of its size (over $12 bn market cap), pointing out that it may be more an acquiror than acquired.  I like it’s benign Latin American exposure, however (Mexico, Brasilia, Colombia, Chile, etc.) , and think that it’s got one of the more promising charts (this one a weekly)  thanks to a long term breakout from a lengthy consolidation:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’ll be trying to take these two in the next couple of days at $4.80 and $16.70 respectively, if I can.   My best to you.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1I5n2-ro_Q 450 300]

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Within a short number of years and certainly within the decade, we here at iBC will have created our own language from whole cloth, and the only people who will understand a word we are saying will be the slavish few who have hung on here for every nuanced phrasing and reworked 70’s-era cartoon-network pop cultural reference.

In future, iBC particpants  will not seek to purchase the equity receipts of a heavily shorted security in order to force immediate re-purchase by said short sellers, but instead one will “GO HAM” on said equity receipts and save time and exertion associated with over-verbose description for other tasks.

As well, one will never speak of aforesaid unfortunate short sellers as “portfolio damaged,” or “margin overburdened,” or even “equity depleted” participants in these volatile markets but rather as members of the investment community who, good character not withstanding, have been “GRAPED,” and left for corpse-pilfering on the side of the lonely road.

Brevity being the soul of wit, such gradual neologistic replacement will not only render these fora more humorous (sic), but also far wealthier in the end.  Hang on for the ride.

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Today was the best day of the year for me thus far, and it’s been a pretty good year thus far.  For one thing, all my precious metal positions went HAM on me today, with most breaking the 5% barrier and some flirting with 10% (like SSRI, ANV and IAG).  Moreover, my two big rare-earth metal plays, QRM and AVL were also up big at over 7% and over 10%, respectively.  Unfortunatley I wasn’t fully invested, having kept quite a bit of cash on the sideline for “opportunities,” and also having sold my AGQ and NUGT just yesterday to reduce leverage and risk.

I’m not as bent out of shape about that as you might think however.  I still returned over 4.2% today, and now I do have dry powder with which to pick off new targets.

Some of those will be additional pickups of the “Samurai Seven,” of which only two are currently precious metal picks —AG (+13.4%) and RGLD (+6.7%).  Nevertheless the full portfolio is up 11.1% since inception, and that’s despite two relative laggards in the short list portfolio.

As for the winners in the Seven, I am really enjoying this 28+% run in PBR since the start of 2012, and kicking myself for not making it my “Stock of the Year” pick.   I am also well pleased with the double digit returns of DE (+13.5%) and MON (+16.5%) since our entry.

The two Samurai I shall be gobbling tomorrow, double-ham fisted, however, are my two laggards, UPS (+3.3%)  and COP (-4.0%).  Both have nice dividends and UPS is finally creeping through that ceiling we talked about earlier in the year. getting ready for a breakout.   You cannot keep a good man down, or a good company, and these two fine specimens will do us well as the Bernakean Liquidity Parade Rustles on.

My best, and red eye ham gravy, to you all.

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I want to thank the President for the belly laughs provided in tonight’s  State of the Union speech.  It’s good to know that when his political career is finished, he can always support Michelle and the girls by opening up for Chris Rock or Lewis C K.

Still getting over the stitch in my side from this quote:

I’m a Democrat.  But I believe what Republican Abraham Lincoln believed:  That Government should do for people only what they cannot do better by themselves, and no more.

This claim, mind you, came after he had just laid out a bunch of additional spending promises for (yet more) “new employment training,” extending tuition assistance,  low cost refinancing for underwater mortgages, and of course,  and even more subsidization of the multiple train wreck crony-chocked “clean energy” industry.

There was even more, of course.   Remember this gutbuster?

Let’s never forget:  Millions of Americans who work hard and play by the rules every day deserve a Government and a financial system that do the same.  It’s time to apply the same rules from top to bottom:  No bailouts, no handouts, and no copouts.  An America built to last insists on responsibility from everybody.

Again, the President said this after bragging about allegedly saving the auto industry by stealing it from bondholders and handing it to the UAW.  He said this whole promising the aforementioned mortgage bailouts and further subsidies of everything from windmills to egregious college tuitions.

A famous commentator today said to watch for the President bringing up “blueprints” for the future.  He mentioned that this was the mark of the Utopian… the “grand plan” of the beloved leader that if only followed, would lead us to prosperity.  Sure enough, the President used the term… twice.

In short, the speech was filled with the same Newspeak nonsense, class warfare, and promises to increase burdens on the private sector that have been the stock of the Obama Economic Takeover since the days when he was riding herd over both houses of Congress with Madame Pelosi and Harry Reid.

Admittedly the guy can deliver a speech as well as Billy “Smoove” Clinton.   He should take this comedy gold one the road in 2013.

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Meanwhile, back in the more serious climes of Superbowl host city Indianapolis, I was greatly disheartened after the GOP Response speech of “My Main Man Mitch” Daniels.

No, not because it was a poor response.  No.  In fact it may have been one of the most powerful — and most appropriate — responses to a Statist’s “blueprint” I’ve seen since the Reagan years.

No, my loss of heart was due to Mitch himself.  He was, from the very start of Obama’s Administration, my number one choice for the 45th President of the U.S.   He’s been nothing short of magnificent as an intelligent and powerful Mayor of Indianapolis, and later, Governor of Indiana.  He’s got a big brain and an outstanding temperament.   Unfortunately, it seems he loves his crazy wife more than he feels an obligation to the country.   That’s disappointing, to say the least.

Have a look at this incredible response, and reflect with me on what could have been:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSAmkDUi4PQ 450 300]

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CRAAPL crushed after the bell tonight, so I expect we should get more and more of the more tomorrow.  What’s more important to me is that the dollar continues to struggle and silver looks to be holding up in turn.   It remains to be seen what the POTUS’s speech does to the markets tomorrow, but I think I can state that there was nothing especially market moving in the entire catalogue.  The dollar will continue to call the tune.

God Save the U.S.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZSHDLIIZw8&feature=related 450 300]

Irony: The Pride of UMass Will Take on the Pats

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A late night pop-in from Giant fan land.  I am wondering how I’m going to pick stocks this next week or so with three lives deals on the broiler, and my New York Football Giants in the Superbowl.   The truth is, I’m probably going to start trimming here, and probably be more dormant than not.

Don’t get me wrong.  If the PM’s can hang in here, against the coming retracement of the overall early January move here, than I might even suggest some additions to AG or BAA or even AUY.

But for now, I’m going to trim sails and bask in a hard fought win versus the San Francisco Forty Niners and their NFL best defense.   There’s a lot to be said in the coming days about the next Superbowl game on February 5th.  The one pitting my Giants versus the New England Patriots — the teams (thought not the same team) they defeated 4 years ago in early 2008 to win the Giants’ third Superbowl trophy.   The Patriots will need little motivation to come hard in that game.  They’ve got a humiliating Super Bowl loss to get over, and they will try their damndest.

Luckily, we’ve got Eli in his Superman cape…. making it happen in the 4th quarter once again.  It should be fun.

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As I mentioned, I will be trimming tomorrow for sure, and raising cash.  I will probably get up to 60-75%, with only some core holdings untouched.

My best to you all.

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