Mark McGuire Hitting Fungoes

I’m really juicing my returns!

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I know, I know, so few of you even watch baseball anymore… It’s more than likely that this reference is something of a stretch.

Better I should stick with the metaphor of football, with its place of honour (sic) and royalty amongst great American sports, and it’s apt illustrations of long bombs and crashing sprints to the goal line.

But for now, humour (sic) me, and act like you know what I’m talking about when I describe an increasingly obscure sport played by men in tight knickers carrying large whittled  pieces of timber, who seek to knock a tightly wound and sewn sac of leather onto a perfectly mown lawn, preferably with no interference by opposing knicker-clad men who have handicapped themselves with enormous envelopes of leather appended to one hand .

It’s not unlike “the jai-alai,” in that respect.

In recent years these men, perhaps grown jealous of their larger athletic compadres playing in the NFL, have taken to augmenting their physiques with such muscle enhancing chemicals as horse hormones and testicular steroids.    One such famed participant was Mark McGwire,  a now near-forgotten and disgraced performer for the St. Louis Cardinals, who put on so much additional mass via home chemo-therapy that he began to resemble the famed Michelin Man of French tire hocking renown.

Then he broke Yankee Great Roger Maris’s single-season home run record and marked the beginning of the end for American baseball.  

But enough of that funeral oratory, as I only bring up Mark McGwire to remark upon how easy it seems to have gotten to knock home-runs in the precious metal space.     So easy, in fact, that I remarked in The PPT yesterday that it was like watching the aforesaid McGuire hitting warm up fungoes in batting practice, or better yet — easily winning the Major League All-Star Game Home Run Derby almost every year he entered it.

But in the market, things are not supposed to come this easily, and so my mind has strayed to areas of oncoming resistance much like a hobo seeking lights at the far end of a train tunnel.   Remember, there will be pullbacks, and I think our friend “Baby $HUI”can be our guide again in this regaurd (sic):

My best guess is we run to that first line of resistance as depicted on the weekly above, and then fall back to the trend line.   So if you are looking to unload phat options positions that have grown unwieldy with greasy profits, your window may be approaching.

There’s also a chance that the dollar dumps with the ferocity of an aging bull elephant beset with cholera.  If that happens we may run all the way back to all-times highs as featured on Saint Paddy’s day of 2008 (and illustrated in red above), when oil was peaking at $147 a barrel.   

 Word to the wise — oil is half that now.  Act accordingly.

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For specifics, silver is still lagging gold, which as we’ve discussed, has broken to all time highs and is now over $1,061 an ounce.   Silver remains below $18, and it’s all time high is  $49.45an ounce.      That’s why I’m on those stocks like Woodshedder on a corn-dog. 

In order of immediacy,  I like [[PAAS]] on the sell-off, Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] on the pullback, [[EXK]] , Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] and finally the dog, Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] .

Also, on the gold side, I have to make a shout-out to favourite Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and new The PPT find Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] which is up about 25% since being singled out by The PPT early last week.

Last, I am accumulating [[TBT]] for the near inevitable rise in interest rates.  I added 1,000 more yesterday.

Best to you all.

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I’m stepping away from my treasure horde here for a minute in order to evade the ennui of large numbers. There’s only so many bricks of bullion you can stack before you need a Pappy and an Advil, after all.

I wanted to revisit my old Bluegrass friend, NGAS Resources, Inc. [[NGAS]] — of Lexington, KY. Remember this chart from a couple of weeks back?

Well things haven’t changed much, save for the turn of the coil for one more opportunity towards advancement.   You can see the running along the 20-day MA since my last post, but today we closed above the 200-day MA for a second time ($2.31).   Here’s today’s close:

Given that NGAS has turned north again, and that we are experiencing a rising market with a dropping dollar along with rising oil price, I think the next days may reveal another opportunity to add as the days grow chillier, and the leaves colour and drop.

I will address additional entries in The PPT with the cohort there.   Right now I’m at a “one-third” position, and plan to add at least one more third in the coming days, if price unfolds as I think it will.

Best regaurds (sic).

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS-jutv-rh0 450 300]

The New Official iBC Theme Movie?

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No, this is no well-deserved reference to the Red Sawx or the Twinkies, or even the misbegotten Mets.

It’s what I’ll be doing to pass the time until Christmas.   I’ll be staring at goats, shepherds and large carafes of homemade plum wine.

Because I’m looking at the Jacksonian Core Portfolio here — up 44.7% since May 1st and going higher — and I’m saying… why would I want to screw up a good thing, ovah heah, fretting about short term nary and sally?

I just got back from checking out all their daily charts, and… you know what?  They’re all overbought almost to a man.

Normally, I’d  be all “where’s my exit” on stuff like that, but… you know what?  See above.  

Goats, shepherds… plum wine til Christmas.   Abide.

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[For those of you who were asking in the last thread about “WTF are these Jacksons?”   I have listed them and their various monthly and “since May 1st”  returns, including possible pullback entry points.  BTW — Don’t even think of following me into these positions, as your extremities will undoubtedly blacken, and soon fall off at some embarrassing time.]

Name/			%		Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	2-Oct	9-Oct	Change		Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$        33.76	$        35.86	6.22%		$           10,827	0.40%		Next stop $39-
EGO	10.60	12.02	13.40%		$           11,263	0.90%		Broke $11.70, good rebuy on a dip.
GDX	42.76	48.29	12.93%		$           14,616	1.13%		$45.38 is 20 day for pullback possibility.
GLD	98.37	102.84	4.54%		$           11,827	0.32%		Pullback to $102?
IAG	13.25	14.61	10.26%		$           18,015	1.11%		Already taking off again here…
MON	74.67	75.77	1.47%		$           12,021	0.11%		Bounced off 50% fib retrace @ $73.50
PAAS	21.54	25.82	19.87%		$           15,508	1.85%		Broken out, look for touch @$25-ish
RGLD	43.29	48.48	11.99%		$           13,396	0.96%		Hit $48.65 target, forming handle here….
SLV	15.82	17.44	10.24%		$           14,167	0.87%		Overbot slightly.  $16.46 is 20 day.
SLW	12.07	13.86	14.83%		$           13,463	1.20%		Pullback to $13.25?
SSRI	19.55	22.44	14.78%		$           13,054	1.16%		$21.50 pull back before takeoff?
TBT	43.40	46.00	5.99%		$             9,163	0.33%		Near target @ 38.2% fib =$47.20
TC	11.37	12.80	12.58%		$           10,536	0.79%		Pullback to $12.30 for purchase
TCK	26.26	31.36	19.42%		$           30,259	3.52%		Officially BTFO.  Target $40-
Cash (000)	$        0.00	$      12.64	0.01%		$         12,644	0.00%		Same
AVG (weekly)			9.33%		$       210,759	14.66%
AVG (monthly)			5.67%		Actual cash
AVG (inception)			44.65%		on cash return	40.51%

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UPDATE:  In case you need the Jackson’s “daily look” — like we’ve got with the Pat Boone Page, I’ve listed them here:

The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]]

Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]]

[[GDX]]

[[GLD]]

IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]]

Monsanto Company [[MON]]

[[PAAS]]

Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]]

[[SLV]]

Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]]

Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]]

[[TBT]]

Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]]

Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]]

And don’t forget about “honorary Jackson” Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , which I consider “one of the crew.”

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Yer Late, ya bastid!
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Things have been ripping around here, as the overstretched band of “no bidness” that plagued us for the first six months of the year has snapped back with a vengeance to “too much bidness.”

I am not crapping you, we are hiring right now, as we just hauled in about five new deals in the last month.   Now I’ve got to actually execute them which is going to stretch me thin all the way into Christmas.

Luckily, my portfolio is largely set.   I will nacker about here and there, but you know my thesis of “Baby $HUI to the Christmas Tree,” ovah heah, and I shall not stray much from it.

Right now, one of my favourite plays — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] looks to be ripping into the close, and the price of silver ($17.71 right now)  is hardly wavering even as the price of gold takes a mini-step back ($1,049.00).

Remember that Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] target fibonacci extension I put up a few weeks back after it’s breakout?  I said it would hit $10.70, remember?  Well, that worked out well, as it’s there and past, and I would look at that $10.70 area as a nice place to pick up some more shares of ANV, which is quickly becoming one of my favourites (sic)  — Jacksonian even.

Last, my beloved, if neglected Jacksonian stalwart, [[TBT]] .    I still own a metric shit tonne of this, even though I sold a bunch in the high 50’s some months back, thinking I’d buy back on a retrace. 

 Well, I was waiting for it to hit that $44.90 fibonacci level we had discussed, and it breached even that  so I said “ok, I’ll wait.”

I should have just bot some there, or at least averaged down.   Now, I’m doing a bit of a chase, and will attempt to refill my love gourds on a subsequent (hoped for) pullback to the $45.50’s area.

That is all for now, but if you want to discuss specific charts, I can throw them up this weekend at your request.  

Back to the salt mines.

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Apologies for this late quick note, but I just spent the good part of a seventh circle of  hellish evening with a window replacement salesman who could’ve given Shelley Levine of Glengarry Glen Ross fame a run for his money.

This poor schlub… he so wanted the sale…

But I was sniffy and aloof, understanding yet askance, nodding but nodding off.    

I sell large things for a living you see, while not entertaining you all with picks of rising value.    

So I felt bad.   A little.  But was more peeved at the Mrs. Jake for setting up such a fiasco after I had spent the whole day in meetings, the last of which was sprung on me late and took me to 7:30 in the evening.

She didn’t know, of course, and I didn’t remember our “date,” so it was a sour-faced revelation for us all when I arrived home to see Mr. Steak Knives sitting at my kitchen table, readying  to parlay.

After much education on triple pane argon and krypton gas filled what-you-may-have-its, I sent him away with no agreement, despite his imprecations of  “promotional sale” and his obsequious (and transparent) appeals to the “showcase quality” of our home (I knew better of course).

I did promise to do some due diligence however, and so I put it to the audience:   Have any of you any experience with this product?  I won’t name the brand as I don’t want to bias things… but he was selling triple pane insulated “top of the line” replacement windows that could stop Superman in his tracks due to their krypton gas quotient. 

Your recommendations or “insider knowledge” from past summer construction jobs are much appreciated.

As for tonight’s “study,” I leave you with my “big picture” thesis of the Exxon Mobil Corporation [[XOM]] symmetrical triangle forming here, which looks to be finishing by November 24th, at the latest.   I really think this chart will forecast the market… as XOM and the earl based commodities go, so goes the market — taurine or ursine.

 

God bless you and your set of promotional steak knives, one and all.

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Addendum — watch also for [[PTM]] tomorrow.  Platinum is heating up along with its more popular brothers.  Diana Shipping Inc. [[DSX]] also looks nice again.   Is it transporting silver ingots?

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Great day for Pat Boone and friends… Pat looking on warmly with that glint in his eye, as opposed to the gleam he reserves for bad days, when his guitar strings break and he ends up beating Debbie and the wife.

Smaug’s Lair of The Hobbit’s late-chapter fame is a good metaphor for this market, if you are like myself and need metaphors to get you through the day like a nice semolina bread and head cheese sandwich at lunch.     The old treasure dragon from the Tolkien classic  signifies the danger implicit in this precious metal bull, and yes, maybe the greed, too.

So let’s try to remain cautious and harvest prudently when the corn grows high, whether by selling calls or taking our positions back a bit.  No need to be piggish and end up as dragon droppings amidst the mithril.

Only one chart tonight, and maybe tomorrow I’ll give you some new picks to augment my Jacksonian rockets (The Jackson Port ended today at 38% despite loss positions in both Monsanto Company [[MON]] and our ultra-hedge [[TBT]] ).

Tonight is a silver night, however, as my seven silver horses [[AGQ]] , [[CDE]] , [[EXK,  Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] , [[PAAS]] , Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] and Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] were up a combined average of 9.19% today.  

These miners will continue to perform as silver tries to catch up with already “BTFO” gold, which broke to new highs today.   As you can see with [[SLV]] , there’s still a lot of room for silver to grow up in this cycle:

More later tomorrow after yet another morning meeting.   Remember — be cautious with the sleeping dragon, lest he make a tasty canape out of your chitinous carapace. 

Ciao.

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