Blackbird Down

 [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ERnT1X9HPw 450 300]

A Song for the Times?
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Well, so much for Helicopter Ben’s New York Times- abetted “tightening” kabuki theater act.

Did you enjoy it?  I hear he’s been studying at the New School.

I dunno, maybe the guys down at Goldman called Bernanke up last night and asked him for some help in getting out of their Euro shorts, since DXY (sorry, no quote yet — see? [[DXY]] ) had run up to about $80.30 today by lunch time, only to tuck tail and (Black?) swan dive right back down to $80 flat just in time for Benjamin’s Jawboning routine at 2:15 pm. 

That particular bit of mummery and prestidigitation must’ve in turn convinced at least one or two bag-holding kaftan merchants from Milwaukee to buy dollars again, because the dollar index got all the way to $80.10 by late afternoon, giving us all that familiar “blah” feeling at the close.

All pretense seems to have dropped away after the stock mavens went home, however, and the dollar is now (as of 12:36 am Eastern) trading back down to yesterday’s low’s at about $79.74, looking at a “next stop” of about $79.50, and then $79 even.     Party on, Garth (and Darth… Vadon, that is).

These incipient moves should be enough to get our rally on in the gold and silver sector, not to mention our other hard currency equivalents including earl, natural gas, and the specialty metals.   I was extremely busy today and I apologize, but my punishment was not being able to add much to the portfolio, although I would’ve loved to finish my Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] accumulation today.   I am quite sure it will be more dear tomorrow.  

I was able to add 60 more June $40 [[GDX]] calls at $5.80.   They were a standing order, and I think I may have been able to get them even cheaper, but beggars, chooser, etc. etc.   I now have total 120 of those $40 June strike calls, and I think I’m done there.  

 The rest of my exposure will remain in liquid equities, and I hope to add to positions tomorrow in the usual suspects, and perhaps some NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] and Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] .   I also like Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] ‘s relative strength as of late.  

For silver I may dip my toe in the Chanci selection — [[SVM]] , as I’ve admired their price action recently.  I may also look to grab some additional [[PAAS]] .   If [[CDE]] stalls in the early trade, I may also add to that one.

Platinum is reviving tonight along with its brethren, so don’t forget about [[PTM]] and [[PAL]] . 

On the non-precious side, I may grab some [[ERX]] for a ride similar to that of [[AGQ]] .   I also continue to like Petroleo Brasileiro SA (ADR) [[PBR]] and Occidental Petroleum Corporation [[OXY]] .    I also happen to think SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] is undervalued here, and it is a perennial favourite (sic) of The PPT .

Last, don’t forget Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] , Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] and Titanium Metals Corporation [[TIE]] in the specialty metal names, and Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] , as their lithium is a bargain here as well.    I expect tomorrow will be a good day for we merry shipmates of the U.S.S Jackson.

All aboard!

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Truck O’ Molten Assets
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That beeping sound you hear is me backing up the truck, and grabbing some more lovely PM positions as the sun goes down on this day of dollar death.

I’ve mentioned that I love Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] for the long term, almost as much as I like Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] on the silver side. IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] cannot be ignored here either.   They are running on Greek kisses and Spanish wishes, but so what?   With the dollar (DXY) and it’s proxy, [[UUP]]   down 53 cents and 17 cents, respectively, as we speak, I think we may have that turn in the dollar we were looking for at last.  If we continue to stay below that magical $80.20 line, I’ll be even more sure of it.

Let’s face it folks, it would be great if the European Central Bank could maintain this Teutonic “austerity” charade with regard to it’s wayward little brothers to the South,  but the fact is, if they want to keep their phony baloney Starfleet Federation currency trading with any credibility, they will have to continue to subsidize the mistakes of the least common denominators.    And yes, this seems anti-intuitive, to save the Euro by weakening it with these bailouts, but the fact is the world markets prefer stability to necessary nut cutting.

Truth is, the Germans will some day emit a huge sigh of relief when they get their beloved Deutschmark back and they can once again run rampant over the rest of the Europe in currency blitzkrieg, if not via their formerly preferred method of  “Large Iron Rolling.”    Until then, they will stubbornly continue to try to make this European Union thing work,  and cope with continuing annoyance at those who would rather hang out in the sun, drink Ouzo  and go sailing, whilst dancing the mazurka and opening large menu diners.

All this brings me back to the punch bowl party over on this side of the pond.  With the Euro saved,  for this week at least, the robots at Goldman Sachs have been re-programmed to short the dollar and buy Barbie dolls and other such Mattel, Inc. [[MAT]] toys — Hasbro, Inc. [[HAS]] anyone?

We, the proleteriat, can now come back down off our panic chairs and continue with our most profitable line of employment — namely, fondling gold bars until their corners go smooth and sucking on silver ingot lozenges until our colds go away.

I continue to love, and accumulate the above mentioned names, and in addition I am grabbing, as I type (with my other hand) some [[EXK]] , Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] , Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] and the “N’s” — NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] and Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] .   

Last but not least, I like lithium (you know why, don’t you?) in Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]]  , and I like to say “molybdenum” ten times frontways and then ten times backways.   If Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] is not bought out by the likes of BHP Billiton Limited (ADR) [[BHP]] or Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] or even Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] (its fellow Jackson) within two years, then I’ll be greatly surprised unto paralysis.

Peace be upon you, my brethren, as our plan “comes together, right now, over me.”

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vimZj8HW0Kg 450 300]

Ahm gonna take this itty bitty world by storm…

And ahm just gettin’ warm….

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Just in case any of you are thinking this recent pullback has been anything but a dollar play, have a look at this piece by ETF Trader (and by extension, The Financial Times).   Yes, that’s an $8 billion plus short on the Euro, and that’s only what we peons are seeing.  It could be a lot worse, or it could be all for show.  

What we do know is that the Euro is just another failed fiat waiting to happen.   Whether it occurs before the dollar (likely) or after, they all meet the same end, in tears.  Right now, the dollar is strengthening against it, after dropping to test support at the $80.09 level, and back to $80.34, after opening at $80.40.  

As you know, I think anything over $80.20 is a bad sign, and that combined with the large selling on strength from Fridays trade (some $675 million in the SPYs), we may be in for testing that 1,035 level on the [[SPX]] after all.    The silver stocks, after showing some promise this morning, are tipping their heads in obeisance to a further weakening in the POS (currently hanging above it’s $15.03 open at $15.11) and even the POG (currently $1,065.60).

I will be focussing on opportunistic gold plays today, as I’ve gotten quite a bit of silver in [[AGQ]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] the last couple of days, and only got half my [[GDX]] calls on Friday.  I’ll be looking at some of that under $41 and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] on any more weakness like this morning (which I missed, dammit).    I may bend for more [[EXK]] as I still have room for another 2k shares in that name.

The overall word is caution, but be ready to jump on an alert, because if Soros or some other whale wants to squeeze these Euro shorts, it’s going to be five alarm time for the PM’s.   Same will be true if the Euro really cracks, although I’m not sure the effect on gold will be as harsh as the effect on my poor silver horde.

Best to you all.

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A Really, Really Good Football Player vs. A City’s Karma

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That’s the way I see this Bowl, btw.   As I’ve mentioned, I think the Vikings should be playing in the game, but for the asteroid-like karma of the City of New Orleans.   Let’s see if that’s enough to beat probably the greatest QB in the game, and maybe… ever.

Picking up after Manning just took the Colts 95+ yards with a mixture of passing and clutch running from Addai.   Already looking kind of bleak for the Aints, but we know they have a fast strike offense, so there’s a lot to go, heah.  

Commercials thus far — kinda lame.   The Go Daddy guys need to pack it in with the exact same commercial from last year.  For that they paid $2.5mm?  End of First Quarter… Colts 10, Saints 0.    the rest of the game will be continued in comments.   Feel free to add your two drachmas.

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Mr. Limm, Out on A Limb
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The dollar is currently right in the “crunch zone” at $80.24 as I type this. As you recall that was right in my “Wall of Death” from the previous dollar chart, as it ran into two separate strong fib lines:

So, today, on any sign of weakening in the $USD (you can keep an eye on it at [[UUP]] if you can’t get the DXY quote), I will be adding to my [[AGQ]] position one more time.

If we break through this area on more dollar strength, I will be hedging my positions again, and likely cutting down on some of my Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] calls.

Best to you.

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Freeeeeeee-ddddoooooooooooommmmmmmm!!!

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Just wanted to let you know that I’m still here, albeit with my guts wound around a spool and looking forward to that “Can’t-Get-Here-Soon-Enough” beheading.

I kid, of course.  But I didn’t want you to think I had abandoned you all, or my positions.  No, I’m sticking hard here, and have not deployed any more money today, although a couple of things are looking very tasty. Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] is one of them, already up more than a buck off it’s lows of the day. I may dabble in that one more time before the day is out.

[[AGQ]] is presently suffocating me, by means of a large rock laid across my larynx, choke-out style. This is the way this stock trades, though, so you have to be ready for “double draw-downs” as it is a double ETF. I will be looking to add that final 600 shs here, however, and it may be today or tomorrow. Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] is equally as ugly, but has (as a kind reader mentioned on the previous thread) quite a reputation from pulling back hard off of highs. Whether it gets all the way to 35%, I cannot say, but I’m also waiting to see how that on develops.

For golds, RGLD aside, Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] is performing the best of my three cabelleros. Next IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and dragging up the rear is the less liquid Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] . I continue to think Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] will provide the best long term bang for your buck, but I’d only nibble until a turn is confirmed.

The dollar (DXY) is most frustrating here, as it ran all the way to $79.97 only to fall back to the $79.84 region. I was hoping it would clear out all the way to $80.50 or so, but it looks like we may have to wait on that action again, at least until tomorrow.  

There’s also a possibility that $79.97 was the high water mark, but I’m not counting any of those quail’s eggs yet.   

Note — 1,035 or so is a 10% retrace on the S&P (or $103.5 on the [[SPY]]  — that could be a nice target for any resumption in the overall cyclical bull.  I imagine we’ll all be pretty exhausted at that point.

Hang in there, folks.  

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 Special Update:  

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcoVxbutl8g 450 300]

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Best to you all.

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