I’m really juicing my returns!
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I know, I know, so few of you even watch baseball anymore… It’s more than likely that this reference is something of a stretch.
Better I should stick with the metaphor of football, with its place of honour (sic) and royalty amongst great American sports, and it’s apt illustrations of long bombs and crashing sprints to the goal line.
But for now, humour (sic) me, and act like you know what I’m talking about when I describe an increasingly obscure sport played by men in tight knickers carrying large whittled pieces of timber, who seek to knock a tightly wound and sewn sac of leather onto a perfectly mown lawn, preferably with no interference by opposing knicker-clad men who have handicapped themselves with enormous envelopes of leather appended to one hand .
It’s not unlike “the jai-alai,” in that respect.
In recent years these men, perhaps grown jealous of their larger athletic compadres playing in the NFL, have taken to augmenting their physiques with such muscle enhancing chemicals as horse hormones and testicular steroids. One such famed participant was Mark McGwire, a now near-forgotten and disgraced performer for the St. Louis Cardinals, who put on so much additional mass via home chemo-therapy that he began to resemble the famed Michelin Man of French tire hocking renown.
Then he broke Yankee Great Roger Maris’s single-season home run record and marked the beginning of the end for American baseball.
But enough of that funeral oratory, as I only bring up Mark McGwire to remark upon how easy it seems to have gotten to knock home-runs in the precious metal space. So easy, in fact, that I remarked in The PPT yesterday that it was like watching the aforesaid McGuire hitting warm up fungoes in batting practice, or better yet — easily winning the Major League All-Star Game Home Run Derby almost every year he entered it.
But in the market, things are not supposed to come this easily, and so my mind has strayed to areas of oncoming resistance much like a hobo seeking lights at the far end of a train tunnel. Remember, there will be pullbacks, and I think our friend “Baby $HUI”can be our guide again in this regaurd (sic):
My best guess is we run to that first line of resistance as depicted on the weekly above, and then fall back to the trend line. So if you are looking to unload phat options positions that have grown unwieldy with greasy profits, your window may be approaching.
There’s also a chance that the dollar dumps with the ferocity of an aging bull elephant beset with cholera. If that happens we may run all the way back to all-times highs as featured on Saint Paddy’s day of 2008 (and illustrated in red above), when oil was peaking at $147 a barrel.
Word to the wise — oil is half that now. Act accordingly.
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For specifics, silver is still lagging gold, which as we’ve discussed, has broken to all time highs and is now over $1,061 an ounce. Silver remains below $18, and it’s all time high is $49.45an ounce. That’s why I’m on those stocks like Woodshedder on a corn-dog.
In order of immediacy, I like [[PAAS]] on the sell-off, Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] on the pullback, [[EXK]] , Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] and finally the dog, Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] .
Also, on the gold side, I have to make a shout-out to favourite Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and new The PPT find Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] which is up about 25% since being singled out by The PPT early last week.
Last, I am accumulating [[TBT]] for the near inevitable rise in interest rates. I added 1,000 more yesterday.
Best to you all.
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Fly called you lazy? PFFFFT
Shit I always that Mcguire did that by doing bench presses and eating chicken breasts.
He can be a bastid when he cannot cuss.
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I bought BAA instead of XRA, and I kept thinking I should be buying XRA…oh well, water under the bridge.
Don’t you think that all will eventually fly, if gold stays above 1050?
Now, I can’t decide between SLW and PAAS.
SLW should be in your portfolio, period.
PAAS is on sale today (and probably tomorrow).
I was thinking of picking up some more BAA today and just didn’t get to it. XRA should pull back from this monster move, so there’ll be opportunity there.
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Okay. SLW it is, then. 🙂
Be cautious, it looks like we’ll get some pull back today, as both gold and silver are pulling back after many days in a row up.
Bulls will buck.
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I hate when that happens. I’ve been lucky with Jake’s picks, but it seems every time I try one of Henry’s…
BTW, Jake any thoughts on an entry price or fair value on PAL? I’m thinking of it as an economic recovery play.
I would only nibble on PAL here… it’s been tricky recently.. Work on just a starter position, as you’ll have plenty of time when it finally gets moving.
“Watch list.”
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Biotech is not lucky for me, either. I did well on Seattle Genetics awhile back, and on some AVII… but felt I was running blind, and I was. LOL Rooting for DVAX for you and MDA, and all the other holders. She’s a killer.
Jake and the his resource stocks have been the absolute best money maker for me. The best vote I ever cast!
And even his bank picks.
Come on, C!
I must say, when I was able to hang on iBC for big stretches a few months back, I found that while my Jake buys were smoking it was a great time to trim back and buy biotechs. When those were hot I’d trim and buy metals. That worked like a dream for a couple of months. The current stretch seems familiar, some good small cap biotech names are on sale – if you can stomach the volatility and risk – small basket allocation type investment probably the way to go unless you really have an idea of what you’re looking at. That’s not any insurance anyway of course.
Hey, Docsparks!, there is a small biotech I used to own and follow called Senesco Technologies (SNT), that had isolated a group of genes that slowed down cell death. They have work going on with both human applications and agricultural applications. They are working with Bayer AG on rice and with some big banana grower is South America. Also with the Mayo clinic on their human research side.
Christopher Forbes is heavily invested and last I looked a beneficial owner of the company, but I don’t know how much more money they have or need to get to continue their research.
If you ever come across this company and have some opinions, could you post it? I thought the whole thing was really a great discovery when I first started reading about it, but couldn’t stomach to keep holding the stock as it kept going down.
Yikes, that’s not a microcap, that’s a nanocap at 9 mill. Managment / directors lineup nice, not much tech info, but all those licensing agreements over the decade are only worth a 1/4 million a year….I like the fact that Monsanto licensed some tech from the them in 2007, but that’s all I could put together. Running on vapors, but still able to scrounge up dough.
Sept. 09 published stuff about Factor 5 – beating up cancer and keeping plants looking good. 41 pages of blah, blah with impressive pictures and animal data. Looking for phase l/ll trial entry point.
Bottom line – another lotto play with the current investors (real names) still willing to front money and some bump on the multiple myeloma data from before the published report. Intriguing, but a real throw of the dice.
They are interesting, but you are right. Probably one to just keep watching, just in case.
Thank you for checking them out.
JG,
The all-time high price of silver needs to put into context when looking at historical highs – that high occurred during the Hunt Brothers’ go at the silver market, and in the space of two months was back under $25/oz. That high (and, by extension, the high made by gold simultaneously) should be taken dubiously as resistance points, price targets, or other technical measures given the extremely unusual fundamentals and market drivers in place during that time period.
That said, silver still has a bit of room to run – the early 2008 highs ($20-$21/oz) would be the area to watch as the first target and important resistance. Above that, it’s relatively blue sky in terms of technical measures.
KTB
Well, I’d take the other side of that, from a monetary standpoint.
True, there are still going to be “technical resistances” at key areas (including your $21 area), but technical levels from 30 years ago don’t mean much, in my opinion, as the dollar was worth almost 3 x as much then as it is today.
And trader’s know that… especially commodity traders. Therefore, a real equivalent silver blowoff would be more in the $150 area in today’s dollars.
Same with gold and it’s recent “high.”
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Speaking of “kill the banks” — I just saw somewhere that JPM was short some 30% of all deliverable silver?
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Dollar continues to get beaten like a rented mule tonight. Just read the recent edition of Elliot Wave posted on Zero Hedge. Those numb nuts see gold going to 680 and a dollar rally exceeding the recent high back early in the year.
E8 (Teahouse on the Tracks) had a guy with some kind of super Elliott thing going. He seemed to be doing okay.
The one you mention sounds like a regular on the Lemming Blogs.
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here’s the linkage…it’s the crew from Pretcher’s site.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/some-elliott-wave-observations
OEW tonight:
“The third wave up from the SPX 1020 low clearly established itself today: Minute wave 1 SPX 1079, Minute wave 2 SPX 1067, Minute wave 3 underway. The SPX and now the DOW have both rallied into the middle of the Oct 2008 two week crash. Quite a retracement. The EURUSD and the USD index both hit their fibonacci targets today.”
Weekend OEW:
Gold made new all time highs as it gained 4.6% on the week. Both Gold and Silver remain in uptrends.
Hey Jake,
Appreciate all your thoughts that go in to your posts. Can you comment on the price deferential between SLW and SSRI, I own both, (cost on SLW 6.54) they do not seem to trade in a parallel as one would expect. ???
Well, they are all different companies with different floats, market caps, earnings dates and results, etc.
They are not going to trade in lock step with one another, although over time they will likely rise along with the price of silver — some faster than others.
SLW is the better long term play, fwiw.
Jake, I thought you might like this, though if you remember these things, it might be a ‘tell’.
Had tons of those things. In fact, we had ’em when they used to come with the Wonder Bread loaves, before they started packaging them like baseball cards.
Remember the commie one, in fact it was one of many that made my “headboard of honour (sic)” as a kid.
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