Home / Tag Archives: stock trading

Tag Archives: stock trading

12-27-2013 Trading Journal with emphasis on $KNDI

Market took a well-deserved breather today by staying neutral.

Meanwhile, I was sitting on a rocket that was going up, up and away…

Yes, $KNDI finally becomes relevant today.  How can it not be?  Take a moment to read the English Translation Transcript for the Q & A Session and Chairman’s Remarks for the 2013 Shareholders Meeting below at the bottom of this post.: (The bold areas are my own emphasis)

Below is the outline of the key points I’ve highlighted in the Q&A:

  1. The Company has made excellent Strides this year in expanding interest in the Car Sharing program through announced signed agreements in what appears to be at least five provinces to include Shanghai, totally covering over 250 million population.
  2. We expect there will be 2-3 cities launching the car sharing trials in 2014
  3. enable us to become the leading pure EV provider in China
  4. We expect this Car Share business model will be soon replicated into more cities throughout China

I’m sure there are many more key points in the Q&A but the above four are what I consider the most important to drive the $KNDI sales in 2014.  If anything, $KNDI may be conservative in their estimate; otherwise, why bother to expand manufacturing facilities as mentioned in Section 5 of the Q&A:

  • Q:The Company has announced new manufacturing facility building agreements in three other provinces-Hainan, Shandong and now Jiangsu – to add to our current reported total capacity of 130,000 EVs per year.

I do not know if price will continue to head higher from here or there will be profit-taking and a correction after today big-run.  However, any positive confirmations such as future earning reports, completion of car-sharing garages, implementation of car-sharing garages in new cities will definitely push price upward in the same manner as $TSLA meteoric rise we have witnessed this year.

Take a look at the daily chart below:


You can’t dispute the strength of today run-up. It cut thru the Sept 26 high like a hot knife thru butter.

And when you look at the monthly chart below; whoa! What we have is a new high for the last 6 years…


As you can see, even the 5 MA line has a hard time following the strong uptrend.

Not to be overshadowed by $KNDI, $GALE and $XONE both had a strong showing today.

Take a look at the $GALE daily chart below:


Price surely bounced off the 5 & 15 MA line with the 5 now ready to cross over the 15.  And from the two momentum indicators below, you can tell that the bounce is far from over.  Price looks like it may bounce higher soon.

$XONE performed miraculously in the 3D sector simply because it went up while the other two big siblings ($DDD and $SSYS) went down.


Price is near the resistance point of $64.70 established back in Nov 14th.  I like to see price takes out that resistance soon.

The rest of the stocks in the portfolio pretty much cancelled each other with their minor ups and downs; so I won’t bother you with the charts on them.

Today was a good day for me giving that yesterday 20% run-up of $INO was followed by $KNDI 26% jump.  It was as though $INO passed the baton to $KNDI in a relay race to push my portfolio higher before reaching the end of the year.  Now, I’ll really like to see the baton passes on to $LRAD.  That will be quite a sight since $LRAD is my largest position so far.  Nevertheless, if $KNDI continues to run hard and fast next week, $LRAD may be displaced to become the 2nd largest position.

But giving the look on the chart, I see $GALE has the potential to be the next runner after $KNDI or in concurrent with $KNDI.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, KGJI, CERS, INO, XONE, GALE, AMRN, TINY (full speculated); and yes, I still have my $PHOT on my other account.

My 2 cents.


Below is the English Translation Transcript for the Q & A Session and Chairman’s Remarks for the 2013 Shareholders Meeting below at the bottom of this post.: (The bold areas are my own emphasis)

The matters discussed at this shareholders meeting may include certain forward-looking statements that represent the Company’s expectations or beliefs. These statements by their nature involve substantial risks and uncertainties, which may be beyond the Company’s control. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements is contained in our Annual Report on Form 10-K and elsewhere in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We encourage you to read these materials.

Q: Geely and Kandi’s a 50-50 JV Partnership. How has Geely contributed to the JV in terms of distribution and marketing expertise?

A: The JV partnership with Geely is to develop EV programs in China; therefore, all the related EV programs will be included in JV. The goal for the JV is to implement Public EV sharing system. The resources of Geely and Kandi are available to be fully utilized for JV’s needs.

Q: Geely has said it was turning over its extensive EV R & D to Kandi to lead Geely’s EV expansion; however Kandi has expressed no public interest to date in the “Full Sized EV” market. Is Kandi working with Geely or Volvo in developing “Full Size” EV’s for either Private or Taxi use and if so, is it as a “consultant” or will these cars be part of the JV?

A: The JV’s current panda 7001 pure EV is remodeled based on Geely’s original panda vehicle. There are also other models from Geely that are in the process of being remodeled. Volvo is a part of Geely; at the current stage, we aren’t working on any of Volvo’s vehicle models.

Q: Is there some future expectation of bringing the JV public and if so would it be in Hong Kong or Wall Street?

A: One of the major milestones we set up this year is the Joint venture with Geely Auto. We just completed the ownership transfer of Kandi Changxing to the JV Company. We truly believe this JV represents tremendous opportunities and values to Kandi’s shareholders going forward. At this point, we do not have any plan to list this company anywhere; our only plan is to make the best out of the JV partnership. , In the future, if there are any strategic benefits of listing the JV in Hongkong or mainland China, we will certainly update the market accordingly.

Q: The JV Agreement is very much like a black box – so far I see more Kandi activity than Geely activity. Can you provide a more detailed picture?

A: So far the joint venture agreement has illustrated the detailed collaboration between Kandi and Geely in terms of EV business in China. Our partnership has been working very well so far. All the news and effort you have seen in the press has been collectively from both Kandi and Geely.

Q: To date there seem to be two EV’s included in the JV, the JNJ6290 and JL7002 Panda. The JNJ6290 while manufactured and sold by Kandi, is licensed under an agreement with Zoyte where it is understood that a small (300rmb) fee per car is paid to Zoyte.

A: JNJ6290’s license is now provided by Geely after the joint venture; this model will be renamed to be SMA7000BEV at the end of this month

Q: Will the Manufacturing and Sales of the JNJ6290 remain with Kandi, or will it be fully included in the JV where all future sales will be booked by the JV? If maintained by Kandi, but built in JV owned Changxing, how is the JV paid for the use of the facility?

A: Kandi will sell entire sets of parts of JNJ6290 to the JV, and the finished vehicle will be sold to the customers by the JV.

Q: Is it correct to assume that the co-developed Panda will be split 50-50 through the JV?

A: Yes, you may understand any EV under JV will be split 50/50.

Q: What is the average expected sales price of the JNJ6290?

A: The average expected sales price is about RMB 40,000 without batteries

Q: What is the average expected sales price of the JL7002?

A: The average expected sales price is about RMB60,000 without batteries

Q: What is the expected Service Life of each EV in a car sharing or leasing environment?

A: The subsidies term is 3 years, but we expect the service life will be approximately 5 years

Q: Since September, the PRC Ministries have made two long awaited announcements regarding the subsidy programs. The first outlined the amount parameters and last monththe Ministries named the first 28 approved cities, which included Hangzhou, Jinhua, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Haiku, all cities that Kandi has an announced established presence. Has the actual payment of subsidies begun yet? If not, how soon is it expected?

A: We expect subsidies will begin to pay in the first quarter of 2014

Q:Can you tell us how manufacturers are to be paid the subsidies and are there additional subsidies provided by the Cities?

A:On September 17, 2013, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission (the “Four Ministries”) jointly issued Notice No. 551 of 2013, titling “Regarding the Continuous Promotion and Application of New-Energy Vehicles for the years from 2013 to 2015”. According to the new subsidy policy:

1. The subsidy payments will be distributed to the manufacturers on a quarterly basis in advance and the subsidies will then be paid by the manufacturers directly to the consumers.

2. Each local government is working on its own local level of supporting subsidy policy. We believe the local governments will soon announce their subsidy policies.

Q: Could you break down the amount of subsidies expected on each the JNJ6290 and JL7001?

A: Our understanding is that both car models will receive a subsidy of RMB 45,000 for each vehicle sold from the national government in 2014

Q: If subsidy payments have not yet started, can sales now be made before the actual start and subsidies still paid on these sales?

A:We believe as long as the car is sold during the subsidy period under the policy, it can receive the subsidy.

Q: The Company has announced new manufacturing facility building agreements in three other provinces-Hainan, Shandong and now Jiangsu – to add to our current reported total capacity of 130,000 EVs per year. Are these all to be constructed within the JV?

A: Yes

Q:How are the capital requirements for the Hainan and Shandong manufacturing facilities to be/being met?

A: The JV will be responsible for raising the capital

Q:Will there be car leasing or car share programs in Hainan and Shandong and are they to remain as Kandi only or become JV programs? When do you anticipate to start?

A: All EVs that are manufactured by the JV will be used for the micro public transportation EV sharing program in China and they are getting ready to start.

Q:Are any facilities under construction yet and if so, when is completion expected on each?

A: The facility in Hainan is under construction now and is expected to be completed at the end of 2014 with the local support and assuming the weather and everything go well as planned.

The facility in Jiangsu is in the process of preparation and is also expected to be completed at the end of 2014 with the local support and assuming the weather and everything go well as planned.

As far as Shandong, we are making some strategic planning adjustments.

Q: The Company has made excellent Strides this year in expanding interest in the Car Sharing program through announced signed agreements in what appears to be at least five provinces to include Shanghai, totally covering over 250 million population. What is the status of Shanghai which was announced a few months ago with anticipation of a trial program starting this year?

A: We have just launched the Carsharing program in Hangzhou and so far it has been well-received. At this point, there is no definite schedule for the trial program in Shanghai. Shanghai government is still working on selecting the location and other preparations.

Q:How many cities do you expect will at least have Car Sharing trials underway in 2014?

A: We expect there will be 2-3 cities launching the car sharing trials in 2014

Q: Please give an estimate of EV deliveries in 2013-Q4 from Kandi alone and from the JV?

A: We are expecting that there will be approximately 2,800 EVs to be delivered in Q4

Q:While 30 garages were originally anticipated to be completed in Hangzhou this year, future updates in August by the Company reported two open and 18 under construction. How many are now expected to be completed by December 31?

A:We expect there will be around 10 garages completed before Dec 31, 2013

Q: In terms of EV’s per location, what is the minimum and maximum?

A: Minimum is 30 and maximum is 300

Q: In percentage, what is the anticipated mix ratio between two and four door EVs? (ie. 80%-20%)

A: The current plan is 50/50 for each parking garage

Q: Have there been any problems getting all the needed systems to work as far as billing, etc for the garages?

A: So far everything goes well, as expected

Q:How many locations are expected in Q1 and by the end of 2014?

A: We expect to be over 50, but may be impacted by the weather and spring festival holidays

Q: While the growth potential of Car Sharing easily numbers in the millions of cars over the next few years, little has been said about the long expected Hangzhou 20,000 Long Lease Program recently.

A: The 20,000 EV long term lease program is involved with the State Grid, China Aviation Lithium Battery Co., Ltd. and other related parties. The project has been progressing very slowly. The schedule is out of Kandi’s control and what we can do is to follow the State Grid’s plan. Our focus will turn to the micro public transportation EV sharing project.

Q: Has further development of this program simply been delayed by the delay of the PRC subsidy program, or is it being replaced by long term leasing through the Car Sharing Program?

A: We believe both have impacts

Q: Hong Kong Exchange listed Sinopoly and Kandi jointly announced in April that Sinopoly would be buying 1900 EVs from Kandi by this year end for the lease program. Will this still happen by this year end, or will it be extended into 2014?

A: It is a part of a long term lease project, and it’s slowly progressing. We will follow the State Grid’s plan on this project.

Q: The Company should be congratulated by the recent battery purchase agreement with Premium supplier Wanxiang, particularly the excellent purchase terms. Which programs will they be supplying batteries for?

A: The majority of EVs of the current micro public transportation EV sharing project are using Wanxiang batteries.

Q: As is the case with Sinopoly, is it possible that Wanxiang will participate further than just supplying batteries?

A: We really value the opportunity of working with Wanxiang. We hope to work with them further in the future. However, currently we don’t have any plans.

Q: Will the Company start providing quarterly investor conference calls and some “guidance”, once sales start to normalize?

A: While we have confidence in launching our EV product offering in China, our progress is still in the early stages. The management is not ready to provide financial guidance at this point. However it’s our intention to keep shareholders well informed on the progress. The Company will provide quarterly investor calls when the time is appropriate.


Q: Since Kandi’s EV manufacturing capacity exceeds the demands of the Car Share and Car Leasing Programs, why are you not marketing plug-in EVs to individual buyers nationwide? Possibly via Geely’s showrooms? Can you see huge potential in this market?

A: Our EV manufacturing capacity has begun to rollout in 2013. Going forward in the near future, we believe our current manufacturing capacity is adequate to meet the market demand.

Q&A session ended


Final Remarks from Chairman and CEO, Mr. Hu Xiaoming:

Please allow me to make some ending remarks. Let me close by thanking you all for the support and patience you continue to give Kandi. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank all of the directors and management for their efforts and contribution this year. We are a company that tries our best to maximize our shareholders’ value. 2013 has been an excellent year for Kandi from many fronts:

First is the 50/50 joint venture with China’s largest privately owned auto manufacturer Geely Auto and we are grateful that Mr. Li Shufu serves as the Chairman of the JV Company, which we feel very proud about. In this JV, Kandi contributed many valuable assets, including the new full-scale EV production and assembly line in Changxing. Also, Geely’s subsidiary Shanghai Maple Guorun will soon complete the reform and reconstruction and become another EV production base for the JV Company, which will enable us to become the leading pure EV provider in China. Second is the micro public transportation EV sharing project in Hangzhou which was launched this year and has progressed pretty well. In 2014, we expect our EV business may surpass our legacy go-cart business and become a major revenue generator for the Company. We expect this Car Share business model will be soon replicated into more cities throughout China. Third is the national government subsidy policy renewal in September. With the government’s support, we expect EV sales will start to take off soon. We anticipate steady increasing demand for EVs in the coming year.

Finally, on behalf of the board of directors and the management, I would like to once again appreciate the support of all our shareholders. I assure all of you that Kandi’s management will work even harder in the coming year to enhance our product portfolio offering and further improve our communications, internal control, as well as the company transparency. I welcome you to visit our facilities in China and look forward to talking to you soon. With that, I would like to adjourn this 2013 annual shareholder meeting. Thank you very much! Wish all of you a wonderful holiday season.


Comments »

The Resurgence of the Oil Service Industry

Let’s start with the Oil Service sector chart: $OIH, shall we?


The above is a weekly chart.  One quick look and you know it is on a strong uptrend.

Fundamentally speaking, there are strong demand for oil service in the coming future.  Do you know why?

The Permian Basin region

Believe it or not, the ongoing speculation is that the Permian Basin has the potential to be the world second largest oil field behind Saudi Arabia.  This speculation is also my reason in owning $PXD.

With that kind of oil reserve underneath, oil service industry is going to be quite busy, don’t you think?

Personally, I like to trade $WG.

Take a look at the weekly chart below:


While there are zig-zag on the price movement, the general direction is still up. Recent correction from earnings report provided the “zag”/correction for me to buy in for the ride.

Today, $WG bounces off the daily 5 MA and takes out the high of the last five days; this is good enough for me to start a position.


If price can close above the 79 & 89 MA lines today, it will be further confirmation that $WG can rebounce from here and move on higher through out 2014.

My 2 cents.

Comments »

Wakening of the Golden $NUGT

Here we go again, my x number of times to catch the bottom of $NUGT.  I had a good run back in August and a few attempts afterward that didn’t quite work out.  Now I’m trying again for the $100 roll by getting back in yesterday.

Today is a good sign that $NUGT may be getting ready to run hard.   With a strong gap-up and a persistent momentum that hasn’t shown any weariness yet, the odd of $100 roll is increasing.

Take a look at the daily chart:


The 5 SMA has finally crossed over the 15 SMA today and a solid green bar even after the gap-up.  I like to see price action takes out the upper Bollinger band to show proof of strength.  There are two overhead resistances however- the 79 SMA and the 89 XMA.  In due time, both of these resistances may be turning up in direction as well.  If that is the case, the resistances may be weakened for $NUGT to pierce thru.

Now take a look at the hourly chart:


Did you see the cup and handle breakout?  Statistically speaking, I’ve made more money trading cup & handle breakout than other methods.  This strong break out bode well for $NUGT today.

My 2 cents.

Comments »

Can $KGJI be the girls’ best friend?

Why not?

Kingold Jewelry, Inc. ($KGJI) engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of gold jewelry, ornaments, and investment-oriented products in the People’s Republic of China (the PRC). It provides a range of gold products, including gold necklaces, rings, earrings, bracelets, pendants, and gold bars. The company sells its products under the Kingold brand name directly to retailers, distributors, and wholesalers covering 25 provinces and municipalities in the PRC. Kingold Jewelry, Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Wuhan, the People’s Republic of China.

Although I am late to the party, I don’t think the run is over yet.

Take a look at the daily chart:


Yesterday, price had a correction to the downside but was stopped by the support of the daily 5 SMA.  With the 15 SMA right below the 5 SMA and both are still heading upward in direction, I took today as an opportunity to initiate position looking for trend continuation.

Take a look at the weekly chart:


Price action has taken out both the 79 SMA and the 89 XMA with the 5 and 15 SMAs pointing upward.  There may be a long-term bull run here.

My 2 cents.

Comments »

Should you take this $CALL?

I took this $CALL because it broke out of the consolidation range last Friday.  I bought a starter position after it took out the opening range and then added after it was able to maintain above the opening range.

Take a look at the daily chart below:


While Friday was an up day for $CALL, the pause here would be that the price action was hitting against the 79SMA and 89XMA at Friday close.  Noticed that both the 79 and 89 were lumped together on this resistance.  If price action could take out this double MAs resistance, price could rally hard since this one got a high short interest per Yahoo Finance:

Shares Short (as of Sep 30, 2013)3: 4.18M
Short Ratio (as of Sep 30, 2013)3: 22.20
Short % of Float (as of Sep 30, 2013)3: 26.60%

Below is the weekly chart:


Did you see how the weekly price is bouncing off the long-term support line?  Currently, even the weekly chart has a 15 SMA resistance against current price.  So, there exist a possible failure in the rally due to the weekly and daily resistances.  On the other hand, a breakout of these two time-frames resistance could mean a continued rally.

Fundamentally speaking, I use MagicJack myself so I know the benefit directly. I used to have Verizon land-line and the monthly charge to me was an average of $30+ per month.  Now,I pay less than $50 per year!  On top of that, I’ve the benefit of using the land-line number on my Android mobile phone by installing the MagicJack APP so that I can take or make call on my mobile phone on the go.

The convenience and the saving of of having MagicJack is fantastic to me; so I have to assume it applies to whomever use the service as well.  I can see there are other competition to MagicJack but I only know what I’m using.

Anyway, MagicJack expansion to oversees may be the next catalyst for the price rally.

In summary, it depends on how price action behave the coming week against the weekly and daily MAs resistances; if it break out higher, I may add more; and if it fails, I will probably bail out for small losses or small gain.

My 2 cents


Comments »

The moment of truth will come upon $AMRN soon

Folks, we are heading into Oct 16th FDA advisory committee meeting.  Place your chips either at the center of the table or put it back into your pocket.  As for myself, I moved a sizable amount into the center.

Well, what cards do I have that I’m willing to risk such amount on this $AMRN bet?  you may wonder.

Here are my cards:

I’ve been taking Vascepa everyday (4 grams a day) since March.  Although I was fearful of the large size of the capsule in the beginning, now I’m looking forward to taking them at meal time.  Believe me when I said it is actually my body that looks forward to taking Vascepa.  Despite its large size, I swallowed the pill as if it was nothing.  It went down my throat smoothly with no reflex of gagging as some might have feared.  I can see that $AMRN is using the best quality capsule to contain the EPA ingredient inside which make it so much easier to swallow.  I had swallowed over-the-counter (OTC) fish oil capsules before and I can tell you the quality of the capsule used by Vascepa is far superior.

Why would my body looked forward to taking the capsules?  I believe because the EPA ingredient in Vascepa is doing something good inside my body.  So far, I’ve no side-effect whatsoever from the months of taking Vascepa.  My latest blood test from my doctor has reflected significant improvement on my trig level.  And I’m feeling fine where my heart is concerned.

Is it psychological that I’m looking forward to taking Vascepa or is it really my body who craves it?  Does it really matter?  When you think about this, you know I will always get my refill.  Imagine all the other people who is taking Vascepa or is going to be taking Vascepa feel the same way that I’m feeling.  Go figure.

Next, why will FDA Advisory committee meeting have anything against a specialized fish-oil with high concentration of EPA that can provide the benefits that over-the-counter fish oil cannot?  Think about this, by taking a favorite stance on Vascepa on the Anchor indication, FDA may be encouraging people to stay away from the OTC fish oils with questionable purity and go for the healthier fish-oil that have been proven in Phase 3 trials with multitude of benefits.

Have you been to Costco lately?  If you wander into the aisle where the Omega-3 fish oils are stocked, you will be surprised how many different brands of Omega-3 are available.  In other words, there are huge demand for Omega-3 fish oil.   Offer these people a prescription grade Omega-3 fish oil with proven benefits and how many do you think will jump over from OTC brands?

There you have it, my fundamental reason for believing $AMRN’s Vascepa will get a nod from the FDA Advisory committee.  If it is good for the population, why withhold it?  It is my opinion that there is simply no risk for the FDA Advisory committee to clear the road for Vascepa.

Now, take a look at the daily chart:


Currently, from the daily chart, price action has cleared all the MAs (5, 15, 79, and 89).  Price action has obviously taken a positive turn and is on the way to take out the recent high at $7.40.

Now, take a look at the weekly chart:


As you can see, the downtrend line has been broken. Price action has taken out the 5 and 15 SMA lines.  There are two overhead resistances from the 79SMA and 89XMA.  With any good news from the FDA, these two resistances will be taken out quite effectively.

Now, stand back and look at both of the charts again, the daily and the weekly.  Did you see the cup and handle pattern being developed?  Does it look like a break out is about to take place?

Am I crazy to bet big on $AMRN?  Maybe I am; but what is the point of not betting big when I “personally” perceive a statistically advantage here?  After all, isn’t why we “speculate” in the stock market?  Searching for a stock with a probability of making a run to the upside?  To me, it is a calculated risk I’m willing to take.

But don’t forget, I’ve been wrong and have taken big losses before; on the other hands, I’ve also made a few successful bets as well.

My 2 cents.

Comments »

Why $GALE should be your best friend

I like $GALE.  Besides the potential disruptive biotechnology that can eradicate breast cancer, it is launching the sales of ABSTRAL® (fentanyl) sublingual tablets which are indicated for the management of breakthrough pain in cancer patients 18 years of age and older who are already receiving and who are tolerant to opioid therapy for their underlying persistent cancer pain.

Basically, while we are waiting for the development of their breast cancer treatment to come to fruition, they have the mean to start generating revenues from the specialized painkiller.  This is the kind of painkiller that will provide faster pain relief than the usual opiate drug such as morphine.

I was lucky to sell before the secondary offering and then giving the opportunity to buy them back after the secondary offering.

Sidebar: I’ve learned to take advantage of the opportunity of a dip provided by secondary offering.  If the company has a solid fundamental, secondary offering is an “offering” of an opportunity for investors to either add or buy at a discount.  I had been waiting for a chance to get back on the 3D printer and $SSYS gave me the opportunity with a secondary offering.

Now, I’m waiting for the fundamental to take effect to drive the $GALE back up based on the future revenues of Abstral or the possibility of a take-over.

Take a look at the daily chart below:


There is a breakout to the upside today from the consolidation after the secondary offering.  This signifies that the momentum is still bullish despite a gap-down.  There may be some resistance from here due to the overhang of the 79SAM and 89XMA.  If price can take out these two MAs, then we are heading up.

Take a look at the weekly chart below:


Did you see that the uptrend is still intact?  Did you see the price is bouncing off the 79SMA and 89XMA?  This bounce off is more significant than the short-term daily 79SMA and 89XMA resistance I mentioned earlier from the daily chart.

Now, you know why $GALE should be your best friend, eh?

My 2 cents



Comments »

$TTWO takes two punches before speeding ahead

When I found out that $TTWO’s new Grand Theft Auto V (GTAV) game raked in over $1 billions in three days after launching, I was pleasantly surprise to see price actually softened instead of a spike up.  I was pleased because I didn’t have to chase the stock to buy it.

Take a look at the daily chart below:


Did you see how price kept bouncing off the 79SMA as well as the 89XMA?  When both 79SMA and 89XMA are coming close to each other, the support is even more effective per my observation. 

I was able to buy some at low $17.xx before people start to take notice that the revenues stream from GTAV has ONLY just begun (my opinion only of course).  There are still money coming in for the computer PC version that has yet to launch.  There are about 136 million units of current consoles of XBox 360 (59.4 million) and Playstation 3 (77 million) out there with only a little over 12% of these console owners who have already bought the GTAV (based on $1 billion dollars sales divided by $59.99 retail price).  With word-of-mouth going on how great the game is, I’m betting another 7-8% of the uncommitted console owners will eventually buy the game between now and X’mas time.

I’m not so sure about the sales on the new consoles XBox One and Playstation 4 since $TTWO’s Rockstar has not announced any plans to develop the game to support the new consoles.  But the lack of sales on these new consoles can be made up by the revenues stream from the online version of GTAV which will be launching in October.

Take a look at the monthly chart below:


From the monthly chart, you can see that there is a breakout from May 2011 high.  Remember, the longer the time-frame (monthly in this case), the more prominent is the breakout.

Can $TTWO restores its former glory by retaking $27.95 achieved back in 2008?  If the money keeps on dropping by $TTWO door with continuing sales of GTAV, I believe it can.

In other words, selling on news may be premature due to $TTWO surprisingly strong sales on its new GTAV game.

My 2 cents.


Comments »

Don’t underestimate the services offered by $CERS

I’ve been accumulating $CERS again recently after a rough start earlier in the year.  This time, I think I will just hold it for the fundamental reason that, in my opinion, the services offer by $CERS’ products may become a standard requirement for all blood banks in the future.

Why not?

As our population grows, it increases the need for more blood in the blood banks.  By utilizing $CERS products, blood banks can eliminate the risk of contaminated blood.

It is this simple.

European countries are already using $CERS’ products.  Cerus is now waiting for FDA to approve the use of its product in the US.  What is the odd of FDA disapproving it when the products have already been in use by other countries?

In summary, there is a large market in the US for Cerus to tap into once FDA gives its nod.  Thus, the risk in this play is really the decision of the FDA.  Oh wait, this is nothing new here in the land of biotech…

But then I’m willing to wager that the FDA approval of Cerus product is as “fill in the blank” as approving $AMRN for their mid-trig (200-500) level use.

Now you see why I’m betting on this one, eh?

Take a look at the monthly chart below.  I like to see the $10 target reach in the early 2014 if not sooner.


Today price action took out $6 resistance; naturally, I added a bit more because of this breakout.

My 2 cents.

Below is information from $CERS website on how its product works:


The INTERCEPT Blood System for platelets and plasma employs the unique properties of our amotosalen HCl molecule to block the replication of DNA and RNA, preventing the proliferation of susceptible pathogens. For red blood cell pathogen inactivation, a similar treatment process has been developed using a different molecule called S-303.

Platelets and red blood cells are not inactivated by the crosslinking process because they do not require nucleic acids to function.  Plasma is not inactivated by the treatment because it is an acellular product (proteins and liquid).

Controlled Reaction
The interactions of amotosalen and S-303 with DNA and RNA are highly specific and occur with high frequency even at low concentrations of nucleic acids (Fig.1).  Once inside a pathogen, the compounds dock in between the nucleic acid base pairs.  Upon illumination with ultraviolet A light (amotosalen) or a change in pH (S-303), an interstrand crosslink is formed, “locking” the DNA or RNA together so that it can no longer replicate.  These reactions require UVA light or pH change, and will not continue in the absence of these conditions.

 Figure 1 

Broad Spectrum of Inactivation

The crosslinking activity of amotosalen and S-303 is not limited to particular nucleic acid sequences or specific families of pathogens, so unlike testing procedures this blood safety method does not rely upon advance identification of potentially harmful organisms. The replication of a broad spectrum of viruses, bacteria and parasites, as well as leukocytes, can be inactivated with these treatment processes.

– See more at: http://www.cerus.com/Products/how-intercept-works2/default.aspx#sthash.66Z5KwFt.dpuf

Comments »

A case for the $KNDI Dec $7.50 Call

Yes, I bought a boat load of this calls this morning.  Here are my reasons:

  1. – On September 17th, the Chinese Ministry of Finance announced the long anticipated renewal of China’s New Energy Vehicle (i.e. electric vehicle or EV) subsidies.
  2. – China’s first car-sharing scheme starts in Hangzhou
  3. – JINHUA, China, Aug. 9, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Kandi Technologies Group, Inc. (the ‘Company’ or ‘Kandi’) (Nasdaq:KNDI), today announced that the construction of pure EV smart vertical parking and charging facilities for public EV sharing system (the ‘Project’) is right on schedule. According to the updated progress report, there will be five pure EV smart vertical parking and charging facilities completed in the coming September. By the end of 2013, 30-40 pure EV smart vertical parking and charging facilities are expected to be built in Hangzhou City. In a year from now, 5,000 to 10,000 Kandi pure EV ‘JNJ6290EV’ model and Kandi-Geely co-developed Brand ‘JL7001BEV’ will be deployed in Hangzhou City based on the progress.
  4. – The pilot project for Public EV sharing project is very well received by Jinshan District of Shanghai and the local government is in the process of the location selection. The trial operation of Shanghai’s public EV sharing system is expected to be launched before the end of 2013.

Notice that on point 3 and point 4, if business is progressing as planned which I’m betting that it will, $7.50 will be easily taken out before December comes around.

Chartwise, the daily chart looks like a cup & handle breakout is about to happen as soon as the $5.72 high is taking out.


Of course, this is a highly speculative play where if there is no progress in the business development per above, you can lose all your option premium.

My 2 cents.

Comments »