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Monthly Archives: June 2012

Did somebody yell “The Sky is falling!”

I thought I heard something; but then it could be my imagination.  Just for fun so that I will only get an itch if I’m wrong again.  Again!  I bought a very small starter position on TVIX, TZA, and SKF.

If a cloud falls off the sky tomorrow, I will add more.  If more clouds disappeared, I will add even more.

And if market open gap up tomorrow (no surprise here), I will just scratch my sore and be done with it.

In a way, this yo-yo market can be kind of fun if you can be quick about it.

Good Hunting!

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Here is an example why it pays to cut your loss (pain) quickly

Yesterday, I bought DDD as part of my portfolio build-up betting that the market will continue upward.  Nevertheless, by the end of the yesterday, DDD released news that they will do a secondary offering of $100 million.   While this amount can be “argued” to be relatively small compared to their market cap; a dilution is a dilution no matter how you look at it.  Sometimes you have to look at the reason why there is even a need for dilution at all.

Thus, for those who doesn’t want to cut the loss quickly (or to acknowledge that they may be wrong), they can argue that the secondary offering amount of $100 million is not enough to be worrisome.  So they continue to hold.

Meanwhile, I learned long ago that it is not worth the effort to rationalize away the bad news.  Whether the price action can recover from the bad news is not something I want to entertain myself with while I’m holding the position.  I just want to get the fuck out of the position as soon as possible.  I put a market order to sell at the open and got filled $1 below my entry point.  I’m actually very happy with my fill.  And even more happier now because DDD price has gone down to $3.25 against my entry point as I’m typing this post.

That additional $2.25 per share against me would have hurt my pocketbook quite a bit since I bought in size.

It is from numerous times of seeing how cutting my losses quickly saved my day (like today with DDD) that it becomes very easy for me to develop the habit of cutting losses.  Yes, there will be times that after I cut my losses, the stock will go back up forcing me to pay a higher price to get back in.  But in the long run, I still come out ahead because these small gap of paying higher price to jump back in is insignificant compared to the gigantic losses of not cutting your losses quickly.

Good Hunting!

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Wrong again! Ouch! here and Ouch! there…

Well, one can never tell but only see if the probability will play out the way one sees it.  One thing I don’t like is having the market open against my layout plan.  I expected the market to go up and instead it opened with bad economic news.  Retail numbers are down.  This is not good news.

Talking about ill-timing, DDD news flash on secondary offering right after  bought; but that the way it is.  You never know what is going to transpire but I still have 100% control of what I can do with the stock.  Needless to say, I sold DDD at the open and got a small bite on my ass.  Ouch!

SSYS- with bad economic news and DDD dilution, I expect this will also go down in sympathy.  Out at the market with a smaller Ouch.

CCJ- Out at almost breakeven.  No Ouch.

LNG- Out with a little Ouch.

MCP- Out at almost breakeven.  No Ouch.

SZYM- This one was down against me at the close yesterday; so the Ouch is as loud as the DDD.

YELP- If there is no bad economic news, I may give YELP a little longer time with my 38% stop loss; but with bad economic news, everything has to go.  Due to horrible spread, this Ouch is the same as DDD and SZYM.

Overall, the damage is not as bad as I thought.  I may as well got out at the bottom and market may turn back up at this point due to higher probability of QE3 being implemented.  Frankly, I don’t care at this point.  Safety comes first before my ego and the need to be right.  I’m hoping to buy back at lower prices.

Back to 73% cash.

Such is another day at the stock market.

Good Hunting!



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Why I’m uptrend bias after today up day- weekly chart analysis of Dow Jones

Take a look at the Dow Jones weekly chart below.  Notice that this week bar still has an upward bias due to a higher high and a higher low with the low still at the upper range of last week green bullish engulfment bar (my version- not counting candlestick tails).  If today was another big down day; we would have a red weekly bar with a low that fell into the bottom range of last week bar which would exhibit a downward bias.  But we didn’t have a big down day to continue the pattern of yesterday bearish engulfment bar.

To me, a failure to continue on the path of the engulfment bar is as much a loud message as a continuing trend bar.  Since engulfment bar has a high probability of continuing; its failure to continue the trend in the next day means that there is a very strong opposite force come into the play.   This opposite force cannot be discount and can possibly change the direction of the trend.  In our weekly perspective; I believe we are still on track for our price action to head to the area (B).  I expect we may see some resistance at the 13,136 area; if price action could not penetrate this resistance, a downward trend may begin to complete wave C of this correction wave.

Since it looks like we are heading to point B to complete wave B, I’m feeling positive about moving 35% of my cash into equities today.  I’m always about 20%-25% invested in the visionary portfolio that I don’t trade with; thus, my 35% additional investment today.

Good Hunting!

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Loading the boat for eventual sail (am I crazy or what?)

Although yesterday down bar was quite a monster engulfment bar; its failure to continue was quite disappointing.  After reaching a new high, TZA could not maintain its momentum and instead gave me a red candlestick bar instead.  Luckily, I got out with a profit because my trading plan demanded that I do not turn a profit into a loss.

Lo and Behold, right after I got out of both SKF and TZA with profit, the wind suddenly blew even harder against the tide of TZA.  Meaning the market wanted to go up.  Despite the bear pulling their supersonic wind blower to counter this festive wind, it could not turn the TZA red bar into a green bar.   So, what should a guy like me do?

Since I like to be happy and festive more than being sad and despair, it is a no brainer for me to start buying up some party favors for the coming sail.  Ok, I’m betting that there will be a sail.

Currently, I loaded up on AMRN, CCJ, DDD, LNG, MCP, SSYS, SZYM, and YELP and still have 40% cash.

What about the Euro-Zone nightmare?  Geez, since there is no follow-up on TZA or SKF, I assume the general consensus think the market is overplaying the fear factor in the Euro crisis.  Like the Fly said, why would the global G men wants another 2008 again?

Of course, all bet made in the stock market comes with risk.  Therefore, if I’m wrong “again!”, my stop losses will take care of me.  Yeah, I may give back a few percentage points in my YTD gain; but on the other hand, I may even gain a few more percentages as well.  It is all about your willing to accept risk and return based on your personal risk tolerance.

Good Hunting!

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Yelp! I finally bought me some YELP

With AAPL in bed with YELP (or is it the other way around?); there have to be something to it.

I also like the fact that there is a bullish engulfment bar (as of now and based on my version which rely only on solid bar and ignoring the candlestick tails).  The chart is showing resiliency since it bottomed out on 6/4.

In a way, this is a thinly traded stock with ridiculously spread, I’m putting a generous stop loss (below 38% retracement from recent high to 6/4 low) to give it room to fluctuate.

My position size is relatively small compared to what I usually traded with; so I’m not going to sweat over this if it takes out my stop.  Nevertheless, I may add if momentum continues upward per The Fly’s precognition… (grin).

Good Hunting!



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Back to the Future! The wonder world of 3D printing

Now that I’m out of my TZA and SKF, it is time to go long!  And what better choice than to go back to the future?

DDD and SSYS have always been my favorite; and since Research Donkey latest news flash reminded me of the 3D printer, it is time for me to jump back in.

Bought 1/2 position of DDD and SSYS.

And as a antithesis, I bought TNA as well!

“What?  Nahh, TZA and SKF are no friends of mine; they are just drinking buddies when I’m feeling down.  For some reason, I’m feeling quite exuberant right now!”

Good Hunting!


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The two trucks buy signal on TZA (update: Bullish Engulfment candlestick today as well!)

Take a look at the daily TZA chart below.  What did you see?  Well, I saw two up trucks sandwiching the down bar.  To me, that is good enough for me to buy TZA today.  I bought starter position.  I will add if Friday high is taken out. Stop will be at today low for now

Also, did you see the dashed line below today bar?  That is the 50 ma which show good support to me.


Whoa!  We got the Bad Ass Bullish Engulfment bar today!  Double signals (2 trucks and bullish engulfment)!  What more can I ask for???

This is not an advice; but merely my daily trading journal.

Good Hunting!

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Dropping my AAPL here to test Newton’s gravity theory

I’ve a sudden urge to test Newton’s law of gravity; so I drop an AAPL to see if the gravity does apply to AAPL as well.  Lo and behold, it falls like every object.  However, since this is supposed to be a magical AAPL, I’m putting a trailing stop just in case it bounces in mid-air and knock me out silly.

Good Hunting!

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Heeerrrrreeee is SKF! Honey, I’m home!

Yeah, we had a little fight last Friday but I’m over it.  After watching the boring and low-budgeted Spanish movie over the weekend together, SKF and I decided it makes sense to get back together.  I think we can make a good team.

SKF told me secretly last night that she thinks she may do some running this week.  Now, that really get my blood going.  What else can I do but to be enraptured by this delightful encounter?

Needless to day, I bought SKF this morning with a stop at today intra-day low.

Be careful though, SKF is known to be very feisty and can bring out the guillotine that everyone seemed to mention around here at iBank these day.  Naah, no worry, I watched Braveheart last night and I’m all “Psyche up” for the challenge (Shhhh… don’t tell SKF, but I get really queasy about the ending in Braveheart…).

Good Hunting!

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