I could post some studies showing that the market tends to bounce after 5 consecutive down days, or I could post some breadth studies that show we are due to bounce. There are probably many other studies that would suggest conditions are ripe for a bounce.
Buy why bother?
The market is pile of tender and kindling right now. A spark will create a mighty conflagration.
The thing is, will this spark be further deterioration in Europe? Or will it be the announcement of an actual plan to deal with the EuroZone crisis? In other words, will it create a meltdown or a melt-up?
Ignoring the crisis overseas, markets can bounce simply due to sentiment. With the high number of bears right now, we could see a bounce, just because. And then there is the Turkey Day seasonality.
I don’t wish to be a hero right now, nor a prophet. Perhaps the only bets worth making are on volatility, and that is not my expertise. Other than that, I’m content to sit and watch. The stakes right now are too high for me to play.
Chinas turn to move are markets down now.
The drama during each cyclical market correction is fascinating to watch. I am getting ready to buy. I just need a confirmntion in the form of a bottom volume blowout, or a nice steady rise from here.
Yes, the low volume has been perturbing. I’m not seeing anything that looks like capitulation. A volume blowout with a hammer would be nice.
the low volume suggest there are no buyers in this market and almost always the major bottoms on the $spy were made with lower volume then the bottom before..
and I dont know anything basically, but i’m sure that who wanted a way out find it when the S%p was above 1250..
I disagree. Low volume shows there are no sellers in the market.
check July 2010 low made with lower volume march 09 low made with lower volume than previous …
All three days leading to the July 2010 bottom had volume above the 50 day average.
All 7 day before the March 09 bottom were above the 50 day average. Indeud, the exact March 09 bottom was also above the 50 day average.
In contrast, of the last 8 days, only one was on volume above the 50 day average.
You may want to ask Le Fly to mint more coins for Europe. The Dutch boy can only stand there for so long in front of the dam. If you would now please excuse me, I’ll be getting back to my fiddle.
As Ass. to Mint in Pres. LeFly’s 2020 swearing in, your, recent, but presently E-legal, counter fitting ideas are always welcome.
Much better designs (for the world “FTW”), comming soon.
0D
A person can never know anything. You can only suspect with an appropriate amount of confidence.
Hi Woodshedder,
Always enjoy your blog and keep you on my blogroll. Sorry to ask this question here but I couldn’t find an email address. What platform/s do you use for running your mechanical models and back testing? I have a system that I plan on giving away on my blog and thought it would help if I had it coded for a few popular platforms but don’t know what people are using. Any suggestions?
Keep up the good work
Cheers
Derry
I use Amibroker, and except for a few small things, I love it and recommend it without hesitation. Pair it with data from Norgate Premium Data and I believe it is the best out there for the price.
Thanks for your thoughts.
Derry
Happy Thanksgiving Derry. If you choose Amibroker, let me know and I’ll help get you started. I cannot emphasize enough pricing in Norgate data. Trying to manage data yourself is a nightmare.
Wood, It’s headline after headline. Already in the overnight, bad China econ numbers, Failed 10 yr. Bund auction, and then more bailout talk.
This is one of those outlier times. I had a boss with a great line, “Yogi, sometimes you just lie in the ditch and keep your head down so it don’t get chopped off.” I believe this is one of those times.
Yep, that sums it up, and that is what I am doing.