As I mentioned here, you’ve got to respect the major moving averages.
In that post I stated,
We are now looking at the 50 day average, currently at 108.42, for support. If this level holds, I believe the market will make another attempt at breaking above the 200 day moving average over the next 3-5 days.
Bottom line- you’ve got to be bullish here.
If you are patient, wait for a pullback to the 200 day average, then dive in.
Would that mean “short ideas” are not a good thing here?
heheheheheheheh….
You know I love you, Emu Wood.
😉
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Jakey, you know I would never recommend a lot of shorting when the indices are trading above all their major moving averages! Go back and look at my short calls over the last several weeks. They have done very well. However, that window of opportunity appears to have closed/be closing.
So are we going with push up, pull ups, arm wrestling? 😉
What are you trying to tell me, Woodie, you’ve started an anabolic cycle or something?
Or is this just in preparation for Festivus?
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lol…none of that. Just with your comments previously about me being fat, I thought it might be fun this weekend to have some feats of strength.
Why would your fatness correlate with your strength or lack thereof?
I know a lot of strong fat guys.
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***Edit*** Ran out of available replys….
For fuck’s sake Jake, quit thinking so much.
Yay, back above 200 MA, woo hoo, I’m buying.
Oh shit, I just looked at the last time that we saw this….June 21st…shortly followed by an 11% fall in 12 trading days..fuck, oh well, I’ve bought now, I’m sure it’ll be ok, this guy psosting seems confident doesn’t he., and with all the great economic news around, surely up is the only way to go.
Fellow readers…..the top is as close as it ever will be, if you aren’t smart enough to sell now, you never will be….see you at 920 later this month!
Flash crash dead ahead, are you ready!
Slopey, you can “feel your way” through the markets using emotions, or you can use statistics. And of course there are the fundamentals.
So I must ask, other than a feeling, on what are you basing your idea that we are at a top?
You might also want to note that I said numerous times to let the moving averages be your guide. If we fall back beneath the 200 day, you get bearish. It is that simple. Someone who can’t take a loss, can’t take a loss. It doesn’t matter when or where they bought.
Where do I start….
Downtrend since April, with a series of lower lows, and corrective bounces. The bond market is not buying any of this rally. The upper bollinger band is dead ahead. Lack of volume on up days, huge volume on down days. The market ignores all bad news.
Complacency is rife, and we saw exactly the same in mid-June.
A nice rising wedge pattern, about to end (although could squeak to 1150).
Vix getting to complacent levels again.
The market may go a little higher, I’ll live with that, much above 1155 and I’ll take a loss, but seriously, we’ve now got more weight below the 200day MA than above, and just look at Dec 2007 for the next leg.
I could be wrong, so could you, but you post as if you know, and none of us know.
But we’re going down hard this month, bet ya!
I post as if I know when I have robust statistics to back it up. When I don’t, I don’t post absolutes. You’ll have to direct me to sometime when I’ve posted “as if I know” when I didn’t reference some stats or hedge with a support or resistance level.
Riding the upper Bollinger Band is very bullish. It happens all the time. Try to build a system off of Bollinger Bands bounces. They aren’t very successful. However, try to build a system for the indices riding the bands, and you’ll find some success.
The market ignoring bad news is bullish. It always has been bullish. Its called climbing a wall of worry.
Its only a rising wedge until we get a pullback, and then that pattern will be broken. Look, I trade pullbacks. I keep saying, and have said correctly, within a day or so, when the pullbacks will occur and how to trade them. I’ve also said there is a lot of resistance over head, especially with the June highs. It is all in print there for you.
It looks to me that the downtrend is broken, and we are trading above all the major moving averages.
A low VIX doesn’t mean much except that stocks can climb a lot farther than you would think. Remember low volatility means that stocks have a greater tendency to climb in a somewhat straight line- see most of 2009 for what this looks like. VIX can stay depressed for a long time. In fact, the VIX is more likely to stay low than stay high.
Yes, no one can see the future, but we can see the signs, and the signs have pointed towards a run at the June highs. Now we are seeing that run. We will pullback, and we will look for support from the 200 day. If we get support there, you are looking long, period. Don’t over think this.
I don’t get it. Is Slopey Dope a Timmah parody or is it actually Timmah?
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A parody, for sure. Timmah wouldn’t waste his time presenting a cogent argument. He would attempt to win by ad hominems.
went there for the first time,talk about a dude thats got a persecution complex. and a man pussy to boot. and i use the word man with much caution. what a dweeb. hay you 2. is that guy for fucking real. sissy is even too good a word. damn.
Unfortunately, he’s for real. I created an account over there today and dropped some comments with some spam for my blog, just to give Timmah a hard time.
Someone seems to be impersonating Le Docteur as well… calling himself “Tophat” and using Fly’s old avatar… and curiously, calling out half his current positions….
Hmmmm….
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small caps are under performing today. big time
odd, no?
good to see you back “at your roots” Wood and posting intra day
PS. what happened to the advn/decn screen?
Yes it is odd that small caps are under performing. Perhaps people are still feeling defensive, yet bullish? Who knows. I try not to think too much about that stuff.
Adv/Dec is still kicking. EVen though me and Danny were doing completely different measures of breadth, I didn’t want anyone to get confused, as Danny is launching his premium service. Some time soon I’ll do a post with the Adv/Dec and we can see what its been up to.
shedder,you think we gets follow through tomorrow ?
Honestly, I’d just be guessing.
Here’s my guess. Tomorrow we close within the upper half of todays bar. That means we would pullback a tad.
I think it is likely we fill in today’s gap before going much higher.
Well I nailed that call!
Nice “guess” Wood.
So, what’s on tap for tomorrow? 🙂