“So, the tax deadline has come and gone and the market is still elevated. What gives? I thought you said that we would crash the next day?”
Wrong. I’ve postulated that this key date is where the market puts in an intermediate-term top.
My thesis is that the elevation up to tax day is partially caused by and for the benefit of the odd-lotters who fuel the mutual fund and individual investor complex. It doesn’t mean that the money suddenly “dries up”, especially with the spectre of unlimited stimulus from the Free Money Regime.
As you have already surely noticed, the equity market is becoming highly fragmented. Indices continue to hang around their recent highs but it is getting “confusing”. From a technical perspective that is a sign of Distribution.
Fundamentally, Europe is in the shitter again and Lagarde is here with hat in hand and the talk is dour. After Bernanke told members of Congress that we won’t Bail Out the Eurozone, I don’t see how she will get what she needs.
So let’s “hurry up and wait” is the mantra for the markets as they work through distribution before the next temper tantrum over QE3. And that Apple is all over the map means The Street considers it fairly valued for now.
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You’re on point Scotty. “Chicken Salad on Rye, untoasted…and a cup of Tea!” – #Costanzamarkets
My preference is for it to be iced…
No sugar in the iced tea, but follow it up with strawberry cheescake.
So far, your call is looking most likely to occur.
The tax money (IRA associated) stays in there, but the “sell in May” folks will be doing their thing soon, and perhaps are already getting started.
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