For months I’ve been talking about “April 15th”. Then I realized that occurred on a Sunday. The point is that I have long expected the markets to peak on the deadline of 401k/IRA money that is due to be allocated to tax deferred accounts. ‘
My hard date of the 15th or the 16th is simply semantics. That day is today, the 17th.
One thing about money managers; they put money to work just as soon as they get it and today is no different. The pressure on market leadership is gone, poof. And after a quick 75 point fall over about a week, Apple is 30 points off today’s lows in just about an hour.
All feels back to normal, with everything that should be happening, is. Just remember that the rush of money ends with today’s deposits. That doesn’t mean that I expect a sell off to commence tomorrow. Just that the market is peaking right about now.
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or it could be a better than expected spanish debt auction….just sayin’
First Question: You really think everyone waited till today to deposit their $5,000?
Second Question: You really think this rally is from all of the deposits?
Yes, and yes! Of course, it’s that simple! I really wish that there could be a move away from this obsession with “making bold calls” and “nailing the top.” Does that actually add any value? I would be much more impressed if someone could state a thesis, and also state how they intend to actually make money on it. Then follow up after the fact with a post on what went right and wrong.
It’s a low volume rally, and there is some merit to people putting off things as the large majority wait until the last minute. Case in point, you are given a course syllabus in college with entire assignment for the entire year. Did(or do) you do all reading assignments and prepare for tests that aren’t for months, or did/do you just stay on schedule when it’s “due”? Market runs on liquidity. If there are no buyers, sellers are in control and can determine the price.
I think there are plenty of reasons to remain somewhat bullish here into June. A lot of capital GLOBALLY that will continue moving in and what about all the capital going into BONDS. This could be a selloff in BONDS and a movement to RISK on just after retirement money goes into BONDS. So it doesn’t have to be a top in stocks, yet and capital could flow out of bonds and into stocks.
The opportunities in market will begin to close into the summer I think, and just like your course syllabus, the majority will put it off until then.
Market could have entered into 401ks but perhaps is not put into a particular fund just yet.
Turning point in JUNE.
wrong
I hate people that just post something like “wrong” on a blog. If you have nothing else to offer Why the F*ck even post a comment?!?
That said, I appreciate your opinion Scott and willingness to stand by your prediction. Doesn’t mean you or anyone will always be right, but you get paid to make predictions and thats what you do. F*ck all the nay sayers, they don’t have a blog and no one gives a sh!t about their opinion..Haters gonna hate.
I for one am very interested to see what May brings.. I feel like we are over heated and should soon be in the summer doldrums..
were not over heated,we still have 2k in points for the dow to p/u where it left off in 07. when we get there,then we can say we are heating up.
thanks scott,
VGK eurostocks and EEM BRIC’s are in the driver seat. And EWI Italy and EWP Spain are the smoking unreliable engine. Its overseas that decides when we rollover again
I see that point a bit above SPY 140 .
But, its hard to pick an exact top for this EUFN euro financial squeeze. I am long some STD banco santander from last week, and hoping for another 3 to 4% . But, looking to raise stop soon
they have until today to get those monies in,and for some,that means they will be the ones that put their taxes in the mail by midnight,dependent on how much they got to sock away, and finish the paperwork. so short term,there wont be any b.s. i think the b.s. shenanigans that scott hints at will commence when everyone gets their refunds back,things will be ripe for pickens by then. just like 2011,how many folks have had their 401’s and such siphoned away a bit at a time through out 11. and just like clockwork, the 15th comes around every year.
What about the Facebook IPO – doesn’t the “market” have to rise in front of that? As I recall, GS was spurned on the Facebook deal – so maybe not?
Salient point Scott. Risk on….Risk off.. Spanish 3 year sells good, Spanish ten year? Bernanke speaks, Gov. labor survey….The HFT algo’s are always a step ahead of the retail investor who gets slapped back and forth across the face by the big blocks. Flow is the go, price means nothing. Jerk me up, then jerk me upside down, last of my coins tinkling to the floor. Can there be any pleasure in a high speed fuck?
Keep in mind one could mail in their IRA deposit today and it wouldn’t hit the account until the check has cleared. This could take up to a week or so after the deposit, depending on the firm. Unless it was a wire transfer of course. So any “IRA deposit effect” could last for another week or so.
Just saying…
I tried to warn you Scott!
“But aren’t they supposed to be tricking me into pouring every last cent into stocks and mutual funds in my IRA to get the tax deduction before it’s too late? I guess one more rip roaring rally tomorrow afternoon will have to do. We have until 11:59 pm est to file.”
I think Scott’s point wasn’t so much about individual clowns putting 5000 dollars into mutual funds precisely this afternoon, it was more about the “smart money” bidding up stocks and driving up the whole market to create a PERCEPTION, one that encourages the small potatoes investor to put away that cash into his 401K and mutual funds and stocks because afterall, it’s “going up.” That impression got a bit of an exclamation point today just in case anyone had doubts. Scott has been saying all along it’s designed to sucker in the small guy. So if that happens exactly today, or 3 days from now when the contribution is invested or used to purchase actual assets rather than just sitting in the account, the perception is being created and getting all of us pleb’s to trickle in to the market.
The timeframe for a “top” could still be further down the line according to that view. I don’t assume Scott is definitely wrong, but it strikes me as a bit too conspiratory.