From what success I have had– and other’s I’ve witnessed first hand –it seems to always come from this equation equating to 1, 100% success.

10% Luck + 20% Natural Talent and Intelligence + 70% Hard Work = 100% Success.

I truly believe that. Nothing comes easy, unless you are born into it.

I was going to give you some funny random thoughts form the day, but I want to compile more first. I am sitting here on a Friday, at 11 pm, doing more work on GILD. I will post my findings next.

I bought DDD with a cost basis of 31.52, looking for a squeeze into April. Last year in April it soared up 25%. My stop is right at the 200 day on this thing, as it is a wild, and volatile, beast.

Let’s look at RC’s #B0$$Move pair trade; long UA, short LULU. You can read his post here, and it just so happens that I am in this exact same trade. Before we look at their stock action today, please take into consideration that I truly believe there is a “Yoga Bubble,” and as established “active/athletic-wear” brands copy LULU’s designs, LULU is going to be a “hurtin’ unit” (no homo). Bring in UA, they’ve got the real athletes, and the the ladies of leisure out spending their trust funds.

Winship #1

Winship #2

Not a bad trade at all. Happy Friday.

LULU reported earnings today, I am doing my initial work on their reports. I don’t like what I see so far, but I really want to read some sell-side work on the subject before I make my decision to add to my short or buy some puts. I’d love to buy some weeklies first thing in the morning, and make an easy 50%, but it’s not that easy if the conviction isn’t there. It’s not that I am lazy and stupid that I want to wait for an updated sell-side report, it’s because sell-side folks often raise interesting points, from within their crystal balls. Here are some of my notes so far.

• Too easy to copy. UA and others have almost the same exact pant at a lower price point.
• There is just too much competition in the sector, at the same– and other –price points.
• Global expansion is too late, and saying that they will “partner” with others in other countries seems sketchy to me. They are already having quality control problems, and they don’t even have their merchandise in any department stores, or partner stores.
• The demand is gone. Lady Rhino is over them, she says that they just have much of the same clothes in different colors. Already having two of everything she likes, why get more? Lorna Jane has recently wowed her with their diversity and functionality of products, especially sports bras for little girls with not so little, that also look “cute.”
• High school girls in “Mid-America,” don’t have the spending money to afford much LULU, but they do have the money to buy UA, Gap Body, LTD’s VSX and PINK, and Target’s C9 active apparel. C9 is opening up their own individual stores in LULU’s territories, currently.
• There’s not enough growth for the current multiple, and what happens when the yoga bubble bursts? When “yoga apparel” becomes just “active apparel,” their high price point and high trading multiple are going to kick the stock price down the stairs.

This is just speculation at the current time, as I have to so more work. But I didn’t want you to think that I was ignoring the earnings beat today.

There’s many ways to trade and invest, whether you are a “technical trader,” or a a “fundamental investor,” that’s not necessarily the best way, but it’s your way. If you’re a football team, you might run a 4-3 defense, or a 3-4, neither are necessarily the best, but they are yours and they work for you. Now, if your way of doing things is failing you, there’s two reasons why; it’s not the “right way” of doing things, or your not working hard enough at it.

95% of the time it’s the later. Don’t kid yourself if you are shaking your head. If there was an easy way to do anything, then why isn’t everyone doing it? There’s no such thing as “20 minute abs,” an easy “Eat What You Want” diet, Tim Sykes “Quick Way to Becoming a Douchebag Who Wrecks a Lambo,” or “6 Easy Ways to Become a Millionaire.”   Why doesn’t everyone have a sixpack, while being a millionaire with a Lambo then? BECAUSE IT IS NOT THAT EASY!

The only easy way to be a douchebag millionaire like Tim Sykes, is to get lucky or get born into it– Paris  Hilton. EVERYTHING in life requires hard work  no one ever smashed a 40 yard dash, marathon time, trading year, or built a successful company by sitting on their ass on the couch, or in front of their computer. No one ever won the super bowl just by showing up, they WON or COMPETED, by putting all the work in in practice, and in the weight room. No great trader or investor ever became great just buy putting in market orders– with stops –blindly.

The ability to trade/invest successfully doesn’t come from putting in orders and tracking your lack of performance, it comes from reading financial statements, sell-side reports, write-ups, chart theory, back-testing procedures, Bollinger theory, etc. You cannot get big and strong by following some bull shit magazine workout. You have to convince your body to grow, and convince your central nervous system to commit to handling big weight. You have to train your brain and eyes to notice things in stocks and charts, and teach yourself to have the conviction to make the right call.

It’s not easy and it’s not for everyone, but you can grow your muscles, and you can beat the market, but you have to commit to it, and call on your heart, when you have to do the hard work and fight through the adversity.

looking to protect my largest long position, UA, I am very interested in NKE‘s numbers. Stay tuned, I will be updating this.

NKE‘s numbers are out

FQ1 EPS of $0.73 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $6.2B (+9% Y/Y) misses by $0.04B. Shares +5.3% AH.

This news has lifted UA 1.3% in AH trading.

I bought Xin, it’s up big today, but wants to keep going. Thanks for this RC!

I also bought FLY a few minutes ago, how could I resist such a holy name?

So once again, Shawn Langlois, of the WSJ’s MarketWatch.com, mentioned me in a post. It’s a great honor to be connected to anything related to the WSJ. I am also very honored to be mentioned along with Micheal Gayed (@pensionpartners), he goes on CNBC and tells it like it is– without fear –I highly respect that.

He was, in fact, referencing my call on LULU‘s earnings this morning. Many of you are quick to call me wrong, but I am still up over 3% on my short, and the name is only up a little of 1% today. Huge earnings beat, huh? Not to mention, just look at the daily chart when their guidance was issued. I don’t see the name finishing strong today. LULU

My new favorite screen, the “Atchafalaya Basin Screen,” returned some interesting names last night, but most have been beaten down, except for one. Guess who called it? Mr @RaginCajun himself. XIN

Lastly, anyone seen STP and the rest of the Chinese Solar industry today? To refresh your memories, I am short all of these names, and currently profitable in all of them too:

STP +70.46%

JASO +12.71%

LDK +16.45%

TSL +0.24%

I’m going to eat some brisket– ‘Murica –then look for some names with strength to buy into the bell. I’m not happy with SPF today.

My friends and I come up with a lot of acronyms, moist likely for these two reasons: many of us are either ex-military, from military families, or have gotten the lingo through osmosis, and because we want to use fowl language without pissing of all the pathetic PC pussies around us. The format for this –and future — posts will be; acronym, bulleted description, short, then long, real life instance.

“PP” is short for “Porsche Pussies.”

• Drives and loves his porsche, 99.999% of the time it will be a 911 4S or Turbo, automatic. READ: the Porsches that drive themselves.
• Quotes Nürburgring numbers, yet cannot drive a manual, nor has he ever driven ANYTHING on a real race track.
• Instead of talking about the engine, transmission, etc, leads off any argument on the car’s abilities with “it was 6 figures.”
• Thinks the GT3 “isn’t a real Porsche,” AKA has no clue what a real Porsche is, or what the company was built on.
• Is scared to drive anything that isn’t AWD.
• College is the coolest/toughest thing he has ever done.
• Has a “CHP 11/99 Foundation” license plate cover on the back, has “XYZ Alumni” on the front.
• Is hung like a circus peanut.
• All he has to give his wife is money, because well, that’s all he’s got.
• Talks about how much “ass” his car would get him, if he was single.
• Frequently parks in the red with his flashers on.
• Acts as if he is above basic traffic laws, and always has the right of way.
• Often has designer dogs, because they are “hypo-allergenic,” really he is just too scared of a pussy to have a real dog around him, or his kids. As we all know, if the breed doesn’t end in “doodle” or “poo,” it’s a vicious blood thirsty beast.
• Drives the sports car, while his wife drives a luxury SUV, really just a glorified soccer mom van.

Short story:

While my friends and I were walking through a cross-walk on our way to to Fort Mason to enjoy the sun and celebrate our heritage on Sunday, this dick-mouth in a blue 4S convertible, punches it while taking a right through the green light. Being pedestrians IN a crosswalk, WITH a walk signal, we obviously had the right of way. This caused us all to jump back, and my buddy dropped and chipped his new bike that he had just bought minutes before. My buddy on the right, who used to own a GT3 RS and was a highschool pitcher, chucked his starbucks as hard as he could, nailing the passenger rear quarter, then said, “What a PP, and he didn’t even say shit.”

 

Long Story:

On my way home today– more on that later –I was going through the tunnel on Richardson/Presidio Parkway in the right lane, when this stupid woman, in her stupid Range Rover, with her stupid iPhone held up in front of her face. Why women feel the need to get on their phones every god damned time they get in the car is beyond me, but is it dangerous. I digress, see came completely across the line into my lane, these are extremely narrow lanes, mind you. I threw it in third and stabbed the gas going from 45 to 60 quickly, scrapping my back right tire on the curb, GOING 60 mph!

As she pulls up next to me at the next light, SHE ROLLS DOWN HER WINDOW, and STARTS TO YELL AT ME! I of course yelled back, and got “well follow me and my husband will take care of you!” I just looked at the sky and thought “THANK YOU ODIN!” I followed her up Scott Street into Pac Heights, as she pulled into the driveway of what was probably a $10mm house, this tiny man in khakis with Top Siders is standing in the driveway, next to a black 911 turbo, with his arms crossed.” I get out thinking, “please Odin, I will let him hit me at least twice before I rip his soul out and kick it down the hill into Cow Hollow.”

NO anger, no animosity, I’m standing in the street ready to smash this guy into bits. Instead, without asking any questions, he apologizes for his wife, and asks if we need to trade lawyer information, WTF? That is a PP, his wife just stood there fuming, knowing he didn’t even try to stand up for her, or even figure out what had transpired.

Now, go ahead and use it in a sentence!

10 years ago today I was sitting on a cot, in a tent, at TAA Champion. Champion was built on the outskirts of Kuwait International Airport and all of a sudden there were SCUDS incoming. More on that later.

Are you ready to be fired through the sky by Benjamin Shalom Bernanke? Or, are you choosing to bet against him?

I sold a few names to raise cash:

TRIP +1.08% (2.21% position)

LL +4.69% (3.66% position)

HERE HE COMES