Best Case Scenario: Everyone is drunk on America and decadence after “The Oscars.” If you read my previous posts you’d know how I feel about this event. Japan is going “full samurai” on the expectation that the new BOJ Governor is going to keep up the easing to spur growth. If US markets can take a minute or two to forget the stupid sequester, and focus on Asia and the great American day of worship known as “The Oscars,” then maybe we can get an up day with decent volume. I think that the odds of this scenario happening and the odds of the next scenario happening are about 50/50.
Worst Case Scenario: The White house starts releasing their “numbers and facts” about what happens under sequestration. The market ceases to care about Asia anymore and goes into a tail spin. I hate to be the conspiracy theory type, but doesn’t it seem funny that the democrats seem to be manipulating the markets in order to get the republicans to concede? It’s a stretch of course, but politics is a ruthless game. In either case, I believe it will be a day to sit and watch, at least at this point in time. Thus, I can’t make any real predictions with conviction for tomorrow except for the following:
Long YCS and short CCL
Charts here
