Things Have Changed

Fri Apr 25, 2008 4:51pm EST 4

Wow, what a week. Fly turns super bullish, my partner in crime gives up his tab, and my iBC machine is in Barcelona. No wonder my portfolio was destroyed. In all seriousness, I took a few blows this week playing the earnings game. My [[AMZN]] strangle was disastrous, [[MSFT]] didn’t pan out, and I failed at a few other trades.

It’s funny because I started out 2008 saying this will be the year I leave earnings alone. In early January, I was disciplined. I sold [[MON]] right before earnings, but they blew away estimates and I missed the run. Lately, I have been playing earnings, and I am paying the price yet again.

Last week I was bullet proof, this week I’m filled with hollow tips.

Note: the iBC screener is still a work in progress, I will be updating it this weekend.

Note II: My small bag of trash is looking pretty good, see twitter widget.

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MA: Bought @ 237.78

Fri Apr 25, 2008 2:00pm EST 8

[[MA]]

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GU: Update

Fri Apr 25, 2008 1:46pm EST 4

Judging by my comments, it seems a lot of people are involved [[GU]]. My thoughts on the stock: Today’s action in the name has everything to do with technicals, if you were in this name for a quick profit, the trade is over. Nothing is fundamentally wrong with the company, it just broke down. It is a recent IPO, and thinly traded, so expect wild movements.

Why I like the company: This year the company is expected to grow 80%, the next five years the company is expected to grow 50% (per annum). The stock only trades at 24 times earnings, very cheap. The company is engage in the production and distribution of bio-diesel, and has the Chinese market on lock.

This remains one of my favorite picks, and I will be adding on future weakness.

Chris has a good article on the company: The next Chinese IPO

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