Short term cautions not withstanding, we are on the precipice of something great.

The entire structure of the global economy is shifting, slightly and slowly. But like all great change, the most striking of the movement comes all at once, at the end.

The United States is driving this assault of the balances of power, globally, as the energy revolution progresses on our shores. This country is set to become the biggest oil producer in the world – and we are now slowly removing the export restrictions that are the last remaining barrier to this end.

This isn’t just about US trade balances and deficits. Those numbers games matter, but they always matter less than you think.

This game is about power. Oil has been the source of power to our enemies for too long. Russia and the Middle East have fed well on global consumption of this product, erecting their cartels around the flow oil to global industry. It has made them powerful and a threat.

The move by the US to become the world’s largest producer of oil and gas can be viewed through a different lens than financial gain alone: this is also going to completely upend our adversaries. What wars and weapons and diplomacy and cooperation could not possibly have accomplished, given the entrenched interests we faced, this one mighty push on our part will quickly bring about.

This is a once in a lifetime opportunity. You must get invested in it, and stay invested in it. All US leadership sees the goal, and no one objects to it. The days of getting beat about by monarchies in Saudi Arabia, needing to cut backroom deals that undermine our own morals with foreign militant groups, having to sit through endless meetings while Russian oligarchs threaten our allies with gas supply shortages…these days are coming to an end.

As the US increasingly becomes energy independent, the argument to even have relations with half these villains becomes non sequitur. We can marginalize them while circling around our true allies and real friends.

I can’t see everything that is going to come from this. Naturally US power will follow. And the North and South American continents should improve, swinging towards democracy and capitalism. Outside of that, while I think US energy independence is a good thing, I wouldn’t be surprised if war also follows. Revolutions surely, but also open war between foreign, former energy exporters who find themselves being boxed into a corner. The Saudi’s days are surely numbered, in particular.

My bet is that Russia will not change much, but they will also have to cut less lucrative deals with China to make it. So at least they will be a less powerful, less interfering Russia. Good riddance there.

Suffice to say, this is unpredictability at its best. While I think I see the theme, I do not yet hear the notes. But I’ll take my chances with it anyway. The old order of things was repulsive. I won’t be crying any tears for OPEC, or for Russia.

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HCLP just blew through $60, as analysts raise targets in response to the HAL announcement.

BAS is back above $27. I guess I could have held onto all of those shares, but I have no regrets. Retaining a 15% position in BAS is more than reasonable.

SLW is pushing its way to $26.

My only position that is down noticeably today is UEC. And that remains my smallest position at 5% of assets.

Fracking investments remain the place to be. Oil names are doing well by extension (and a high price per barrel). I’m telling you, coal will be the next thing to run.

Have a wonderful afternoon.

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I made a large series of sales in BAS for $26.23 on average. These shares were sold for an average gain of 116% from my initial purchase price a few years ago.

This sale brings BAS back in line to a 15% position in my portfolio. It had been almost 25%. The 10% cash raise will sit on my books for now.

I ran some numbers, and from their last report, I’m thinking BAS was probably worth about $8 a share. This massive move higher has been from the company managing to stop the losses they were taking every quarter. However, the next major risk to the shares will be execution; can the company turn a profit?

I think I can see how the company could make $1.60 a year in earnings pretty easily. That puts an 11 year break even point, which is about the top end of my acceptable range. At this junction, the shares are a fair price, in my book.

But I love the company, so I’ll be keeping the 15% position I have in them. I think they don’t just turn $1.60. I think they surprise us all and make $2.50-3 per share annually, sending the shares into the $30-40 range.

I cannot justify keeping the massive ~25% of my portfolio in BAS though. That’s too much, and I do have a lot of money sitting on the table here. I’m only willing to take regular risks that Basic Energy Services makes the next step successfully, even though I’m confident they will.

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This sudden resurge of equities has propelled me back to all time highs; and nothing is “surgier” than Hi-Crush Partners LP (HCLP).

Last night, they announced an amended supply agreement with Halliburton (HAL), for the usual terms – more committed volumes, higher prices, certain benchmarks for yet greater volumes at even higher prices still…etcetera etcetera.

This follows an announcement on the 17th of June for much the same deal with Liberty Oilfield Services.

The culmination of these announcements has sent HCLP to $58.50, at time of this correspondence, gracefully and effortlessly taking out new all time highs of its own.

For the year, I have only one bad investment, and that is NRP. At least, for now. Aside from that, it has been all gravy trains and cocaine buffets.

Up next on the menu: the EPA announcement of new power plant regulations will be recognized as the exact floor for coal stocks.

Get some while the getting is good.

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If not for Basic Energy Services turning on a dime and sprinting away from the rest of the trash that comprises this trading session, I would be having a pretty bad day.

UEC is down over 50% since I bought it. Mind you, as I have stated repeatedly, it is a small position. At its peak, it was under 5% of my account. So I’m not panicked here. But damn it, that was my 5%.

Give me my money back.

The trouble with the uranium miners (and the reason I’ve been very adamant up until now to just keep it simple and avoid the smaller businesses) is pretty forwardly summed up in UEC’s latest filing. They sold $0.00 in revenue in the first three months of 2014.

That’s $0.00.

The 2014 YEAR OF URANIUM BLISS (or whatever the hell I called it) …has been cancelled. Uranium spot just nosedived this week and, even though I suspect this flash crash is nearer the end of the turmoil, that kind of godless price action can only portend one thing.

Somebody is about to get liquidated.

I just pray it isn’t UEC.

CCJ is treading water daily. It’s all she can do to hold the line, but one false move and it’s a quick list to the side and down she goes.

The rest of my positions are holding up fairly well, actually. The multifamily theme remains tantalizing, particularly now that the primary argument against them – a resurgence in homeownership rates and a drop in occupancy for rentals – is such obvious bunk. AEC and MAA should continue to perform.

NRP has held up decent enough, following the 25% washout it took this year. That’s probably been my worst idea so far in 2014. But they are getting things under control, I have a hunch coal may be a terrific investment here, and I get to collect 8% annually while I wait.

I’m definitely not +10% for the year anymore, but there’s another 8 months to make something happen yet. My fear isn’t my positions, it’s what consequence an entire index of investors getting their combined comeuppance will have on me.

The NASDAQ traders got stupid. Real stupid. Will that spill over to me? It’s looking likely.

Like it or not, the stock market tends to take on a real flare of the vineyard effect. You pop up five vineyards next to each other, they all do well. Plenty of room to visit each, for the patrons. In fact, it draws in more business.

But if one of those bastards let’s an infestation go unattended; suddenly you have nothing but tears and reek wine.

Tesla earnings are out after the bell. Let’s see what happens there.

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I’ve been keeping up on earnings for my companies as they post, but I haven’t quite had the spare time to translate everything I’m thinking into posts. It’s been a rapid series of reports and not quite enough time to write out my thoughts on the subject.

Rest assured, if there had been any big deviations from the plans, I’d tell you.

As HCLP has been a particularly precious position and given how closely I’m tracking, it merits special consideration.

The company guided in on revenues and missed on earnings (depending on who you ask). But neither of that matters. This is what is actually important:

The company continues to see rapid increases in demand for product. Tonight, in addition to reporting earnings, they also announced another amended contract that, and I quote, “…significantly increases the annual committed volumes under the agreement signed in March and extends the term by two more years.”

No, you’re not seeing things. HCLP just amended this same contract two months ago. I guess realities on the ground have already changed so much that they were afforded the luxury of re-renegotiating.

I look at the last press release from March, where they announced the original amendment to the Weatherford contract, which was to be in place for a further three years, at a specified (then higher) volume of sand, for a higher price.

So two months later, that contract has become a five year contract for even higher volumes.

Yes I do like the sound of that. You can bank on these developments flowing through the natural gas producers and well servicing sectors soon enough. High demand for sand means high demand for gas.

Natural gas inventory is at eleven year lows and there is lingering concern that adverse weather this year could put real pressure on refilling storage. This would translate to pressure on users for higher prices and alleviate much of the residual pessimism surrounding natural gas from 2011.

The natural gas game is on.

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