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Crisis

Well That Ended Anticlimactically

Here I was thinking CCJ would go on an epic run, and instead it decided to reverse 4.6% on a lazy Friday afternoon.

On the plus side, it and my other main positions (BAS, AEC, HCLP) all seem to be resting just above the higher moving averages. I’m going to pretend like I care about TA for a minute and assume that means paved glory in my future, next week.

China sucks and I’m sitting around just praying PGJ gets assaulted. The BRIC thing is just really a load of garbage. They’ve been shoveling this shit to private retail money for twenty continuous years now; meanwhile, to this day, three of the above four letters in said acronym don’t even have primitive shareholder legal protections in place worth a damn.

Pathetic.

Putin is bringing down US drones and generally showing off now, as if the inability to feed and cloth his own people (or other such humiliating realities of that Russian Exceptionalism lifetstyle) were somehow forgettable next to the nostalgic grandeur of a grey haired, 62 year old man suffocating on his own bullshit.

Suffice to say, if Bush were still in office, Putin wouldn’t have the balls to be trying any of this. I know you Obama apologists will be leaping around like faggots now, whining at me for being “unfair”. What’s unfair is us living in this day and age and still needing to explain how incentives and behavior work to you stupid assholes. Choke on some humility coming off the trio of failures that are Obamacare, Foreign Policy, and the DOJ before you open your mouths in my comments section. Unless I’m mistaken, outcomes still matter more than pathetic excuses and “intent”.

The only one of the BRIC’s I would even look at is Brazil. Even there though, no need to get tangled up in the state owned populism. I’m content to just sit back, crack a beer, and watch Venezuela and Argentina burn to cinders.

I’m 25% cash, a little less cocky from this week, and certainly not up 14.5% anymore (though doing quite well).

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Russia Threatens to Confiscate Foreign Owned Property

Well they went and did it now.

This is a bold move, and one that is sure to escalate things quickly. Think about how much has been put at stake trying to lift Russia out of the pit of communism, over the past two decades. Think of Goldman Sachs’ Blankfein making cross continental trips all through the ’90’s, setting up access for foreign investment into Russia’s economy.

The move is crazy, of course. If Russia started hard confiscation of assets, you’re looking at a basic replay of what happened when they defaulted on their bonds in ’98. Economic stagnation, a plunge back into hard poverty, and all. Worse, even.

The trouble is, the Russian’s are just crazy enough not to care. The ’98 default itself didn’t make any sense. It was a clear blunder – to everyone – that would only hurt Russia and those who were trying to help support the country.

And they did it anyway. And the whole time, Russia’s “leadership” looked on with straight backs and the visage of complete confidence.

Threatening to confiscate assets to get your way is a lot like threatening to shoot yourself in the face. Sure it splatters the audience in blood and inconveniences them…but you’re the one that’s dead, idiot. Yet, here we are, watching “new” Russia follow in the footsteps of “old” Russia – plus Argentina and Venezuela – and you can’t help but wonder, do the people clutching the capacity to throw this switch know something that we don’t?

Like that keeping Russia-at-large somewhere just between the stone age (fighting polar bears with empty vodka bottles) and Flint, MI is personally the best outcome for them?

There’s a small part of me that’s tempted to jump around and start hunting for deals; scouting around for people willing to take $0.50 on the dollar for their now very much imperiled Russian stakes. But that small part is quickly squelched by the much larger part of me that wants nothing to do with gangster thugs running a cross between a cult and a crime syndicate.

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