My 1,001st Post – It’s About BAS

To think the post before this one was my 1,000th since joining the site. I would have had more fanfare if I had realized. But then the best tribute I can make is to march onward with the good work.

BAS reported earnings last night of $0.06 a share – $0.13 excluding one time items. So far this morning, BAS is gapping down 10% (and counting).

This is honestly a pretty good showing. They lost $0.10 a share last quarter, so they swung $0.23 cents into profits.

The company has grown revenues 12% from this time last year. Revenues are 8.5% higher from last quarter.

At the moment, the CEO is anticipating another 4-6% lift in revenues in the third quarter. That should be good for another $3-4 million in profits for shareholders, so I’d expect earnings to lift another $0.20 or so at the next report. That would put us at ~$1.30 annually with a full quarter left to go in 2014.

Beyond that, I see more shareholder value being unlocked as the cost of capital continues to come down and natural gas adoption progresses.

The stock is cratering this morning on profit taking (it’s priced pretty fairly right now, in line with the rest of the market), but I’d guess it recovers soon enough. We’re on track to make that $1.60 annually I mentioned, and the $2.50-3.00 surprise I also hoped for is not out of the question. Barring some sort of major stumble, the stock should be in the vicinity of $35 by Christmas.

After all, if they keep this tempo, they’re at $2.00 yearly earnings by the start of 2015.

Bought Back More HCLP for $59.39

Over the past week or so, I raised cash to 25%. This was good fortune, as HCLP, my mantelpiece position, has dropped 8% since I let up.

Today, I repurchased half of those shares, which I sold at $64.19 each, for $59.39.

It seems like good enough of a bet to me. HCLP is growing so fast… it’s trading at just over 17x Q3 2014 earnings estimates. I have no good way to guess what HCLP’s earning’s potential is over time; but 17x doesn’t seem unreasonable, particularly with a steady announcement of 5 year supply agreements being announced and 200% revenue growth last year. When you’ve managed to get in on the ground floor of such a high flying position, it just makes sense to hold long a core stake, and ride the waves.

This 8% drop is just another opportunity to make extra money, until such time as that logic is challenged. For the moment, HCLP just managed to touch its 20 day moving average for the first time since early June.

Next earnings announcement is in August. So tell me, who wants to stand in the way of this thing?

BAS Just Saved My Day

If not for Basic Energy Services turning on a dime and sprinting away from the rest of the trash that comprises this trading session, I would be having a pretty bad day.

UEC is down over 50% since I bought it. Mind you, as I have stated repeatedly, it is a small position. At its peak, it was under 5% of my account. So I’m not panicked here. But damn it, that was my 5%.

Give me my money back.

The trouble with the uranium miners (and the reason I’ve been very adamant up until now to just keep it simple and avoid the smaller businesses) is pretty forwardly summed up in UEC’s latest filing. They sold $0.00 in revenue in the first three months of 2014.

That’s $0.00.

The 2014 YEAR OF URANIUM BLISS (or whatever the hell I called it) …has been cancelled. Uranium spot just nosedived this week and, even though I suspect this flash crash is nearer the end of the turmoil, that kind of godless price action can only portend one thing.

Somebody is about to get liquidated.

I just pray it isn’t UEC.

CCJ is treading water daily. It’s all she can do to hold the line, but one false move and it’s a quick list to the side and down she goes.

The rest of my positions are holding up fairly well, actually. The multifamily theme remains tantalizing, particularly now that the primary argument against them – a resurgence in homeownership rates and a drop in occupancy for rentals – is such obvious bunk. AEC and MAA should continue to perform.

NRP has held up decent enough, following the 25% washout it took this year. That’s probably been my worst idea so far in 2014. But they are getting things under control, I have a hunch coal may be a terrific investment here, and I get to collect 8% annually while I wait.

I’m definitely not +10% for the year anymore, but there’s another 8 months to make something happen yet. My fear isn’t my positions, it’s what consequence an entire index of investors getting their combined comeuppance will have on me.

The NASDAQ traders got stupid. Real stupid. Will that spill over to me? It’s looking likely.

Like it or not, the stock market tends to take on a real flare of the vineyard effect. You pop up five vineyards next to each other, they all do well. Plenty of room to visit each, for the patrons. In fact, it draws in more business.

But if one of those bastards let’s an infestation go unattended; suddenly you have nothing but tears and reek wine.

Tesla earnings are out after the bell. Let’s see what happens there.

HCLP Earnings Are Out

I’ve been keeping up on earnings for my companies as they post, but I haven’t quite had the spare time to translate everything I’m thinking into posts. It’s been a rapid series of reports and not quite enough time to write out my thoughts on the subject.

Rest assured, if there had been any big deviations from the plans, I’d tell you.

As HCLP has been a particularly precious position and given how closely I’m tracking, it merits special consideration.

The company guided in on revenues and missed on earnings (depending on who you ask). But neither of that matters. This is what is actually important:

The company continues to see rapid increases in demand for product. Tonight, in addition to reporting earnings, they also announced another amended contract that, and I quote, “…significantly increases the annual committed volumes under the agreement signed in March and extends the term by two more years.”

No, you’re not seeing things. HCLP just amended this same contract two months ago. I guess realities on the ground have already changed so much that they were afforded the luxury of re-renegotiating.

I look at the last press release from March, where they announced the original amendment to the Weatherford contract, which was to be in place for a further three years, at a specified (then higher) volume of sand, for a higher price.

So two months later, that contract has become a five year contract for even higher volumes.

Yes I do like the sound of that. You can bank on these developments flowing through the natural gas producers and well servicing sectors soon enough. High demand for sand means high demand for gas.

Natural gas inventory is at eleven year lows and there is lingering concern that adverse weather this year could put real pressure on refilling storage. This would translate to pressure on users for higher prices and alleviate much of the residual pessimism surrounding natural gas from 2011.

The natural gas game is on.

BAS Taken Out Back And Shot

Basic Energy Services blew past analyst expectations, recording a smaller than expected loss, announcing above average revenue growth expectations, and that they were so excited by all of this that they will be jacking up investment activity even more than prior announcements.

The stock is off 8% after the open.

I don’t know what shareholders were expecting…but given the run from $16 to $28 followed by this, I have to suspect it was ‘the moon’.

The company is afforded the benefit of the doubt in my opinion. I’ll look at the SEC filing then decide if I want to lock in some gains or let it ride. But I’m predisposed to let it ride.

Mind you, today’s plunge doesn’t even take the stock back to the 50 day moving average. My guess is this will resolve quickly, affording a good buying opportunity.

Natural gas is going to be huge this decade.

BAS Earnings After The Close

Basic Energy Services, one of my most favorite positions, is reporting Q1 earnings after the close.

The stock is up ~80% since the start of the year. Accordingly, it is being afforded a little break today, while longs lock in some gains.

Cain Hammond Thaler will not be among the profiteers, as he is resting self-assuredly in his 9th floor office, indifferent to the prospect of a BAS sell off. Cocky, even.

Natural gas spot pricing is back to $4.70. That is a huge rebound from the mighty flush out that first put the natural gas sector on ice. Since which time, BAS and strengthened their corporate entity, engaging in buy outs and solidifying the balance sheet.

Let’s see what they can do.

My 1,001st Post – It’s About BAS

To think the post before this one was my 1,000th since joining the site. I would have had more fanfare if I had realized. But then the best tribute I can make is to march onward with the good work.

BAS reported earnings last night of $0.06 a share – $0.13 excluding one time items. So far this morning, BAS is gapping down 10% (and counting).

This is honestly a pretty good showing. They lost $0.10 a share last quarter, so they swung $0.23 cents into profits.

The company has grown revenues 12% from this time last year. Revenues are 8.5% higher from last quarter.

At the moment, the CEO is anticipating another 4-6% lift in revenues in the third quarter. That should be good for another $3-4 million in profits for shareholders, so I’d expect earnings to lift another $0.20 or so at the next report. That would put us at ~$1.30 annually with a full quarter left to go in 2014.

Beyond that, I see more shareholder value being unlocked as the cost of capital continues to come down and natural gas adoption progresses.

The stock is cratering this morning on profit taking (it’s priced pretty fairly right now, in line with the rest of the market), but I’d guess it recovers soon enough. We’re on track to make that $1.60 annually I mentioned, and the $2.50-3.00 surprise I also hoped for is not out of the question. Barring some sort of major stumble, the stock should be in the vicinity of $35 by Christmas.

After all, if they keep this tempo, they’re at $2.00 yearly earnings by the start of 2015.

Bought Back More HCLP for $59.39

Over the past week or so, I raised cash to 25%. This was good fortune, as HCLP, my mantelpiece position, has dropped 8% since I let up.

Today, I repurchased half of those shares, which I sold at $64.19 each, for $59.39.

It seems like good enough of a bet to me. HCLP is growing so fast… it’s trading at just over 17x Q3 2014 earnings estimates. I have no good way to guess what HCLP’s earning’s potential is over time; but 17x doesn’t seem unreasonable, particularly with a steady announcement of 5 year supply agreements being announced and 200% revenue growth last year. When you’ve managed to get in on the ground floor of such a high flying position, it just makes sense to hold long a core stake, and ride the waves.

This 8% drop is just another opportunity to make extra money, until such time as that logic is challenged. For the moment, HCLP just managed to touch its 20 day moving average for the first time since early June.

Next earnings announcement is in August. So tell me, who wants to stand in the way of this thing?

BAS Just Saved My Day

If not for Basic Energy Services turning on a dime and sprinting away from the rest of the trash that comprises this trading session, I would be having a pretty bad day.

UEC is down over 50% since I bought it. Mind you, as I have stated repeatedly, it is a small position. At its peak, it was under 5% of my account. So I’m not panicked here. But damn it, that was my 5%.

Give me my money back.

The trouble with the uranium miners (and the reason I’ve been very adamant up until now to just keep it simple and avoid the smaller businesses) is pretty forwardly summed up in UEC’s latest filing. They sold $0.00 in revenue in the first three months of 2014.

That’s $0.00.

The 2014 YEAR OF URANIUM BLISS (or whatever the hell I called it) …has been cancelled. Uranium spot just nosedived this week and, even though I suspect this flash crash is nearer the end of the turmoil, that kind of godless price action can only portend one thing.

Somebody is about to get liquidated.

I just pray it isn’t UEC.

CCJ is treading water daily. It’s all she can do to hold the line, but one false move and it’s a quick list to the side and down she goes.

The rest of my positions are holding up fairly well, actually. The multifamily theme remains tantalizing, particularly now that the primary argument against them – a resurgence in homeownership rates and a drop in occupancy for rentals – is such obvious bunk. AEC and MAA should continue to perform.

NRP has held up decent enough, following the 25% washout it took this year. That’s probably been my worst idea so far in 2014. But they are getting things under control, I have a hunch coal may be a terrific investment here, and I get to collect 8% annually while I wait.

I’m definitely not +10% for the year anymore, but there’s another 8 months to make something happen yet. My fear isn’t my positions, it’s what consequence an entire index of investors getting their combined comeuppance will have on me.

The NASDAQ traders got stupid. Real stupid. Will that spill over to me? It’s looking likely.

Like it or not, the stock market tends to take on a real flare of the vineyard effect. You pop up five vineyards next to each other, they all do well. Plenty of room to visit each, for the patrons. In fact, it draws in more business.

But if one of those bastards let’s an infestation go unattended; suddenly you have nothing but tears and reek wine.

Tesla earnings are out after the bell. Let’s see what happens there.

HCLP Earnings Are Out

I’ve been keeping up on earnings for my companies as they post, but I haven’t quite had the spare time to translate everything I’m thinking into posts. It’s been a rapid series of reports and not quite enough time to write out my thoughts on the subject.

Rest assured, if there had been any big deviations from the plans, I’d tell you.

As HCLP has been a particularly precious position and given how closely I’m tracking, it merits special consideration.

The company guided in on revenues and missed on earnings (depending on who you ask). But neither of that matters. This is what is actually important:

The company continues to see rapid increases in demand for product. Tonight, in addition to reporting earnings, they also announced another amended contract that, and I quote, “…significantly increases the annual committed volumes under the agreement signed in March and extends the term by two more years.”

No, you’re not seeing things. HCLP just amended this same contract two months ago. I guess realities on the ground have already changed so much that they were afforded the luxury of re-renegotiating.

I look at the last press release from March, where they announced the original amendment to the Weatherford contract, which was to be in place for a further three years, at a specified (then higher) volume of sand, for a higher price.

So two months later, that contract has become a five year contract for even higher volumes.

Yes I do like the sound of that. You can bank on these developments flowing through the natural gas producers and well servicing sectors soon enough. High demand for sand means high demand for gas.

Natural gas inventory is at eleven year lows and there is lingering concern that adverse weather this year could put real pressure on refilling storage. This would translate to pressure on users for higher prices and alleviate much of the residual pessimism surrounding natural gas from 2011.

The natural gas game is on.

BAS Taken Out Back And Shot

Basic Energy Services blew past analyst expectations, recording a smaller than expected loss, announcing above average revenue growth expectations, and that they were so excited by all of this that they will be jacking up investment activity even more than prior announcements.

The stock is off 8% after the open.

I don’t know what shareholders were expecting…but given the run from $16 to $28 followed by this, I have to suspect it was ‘the moon’.

The company is afforded the benefit of the doubt in my opinion. I’ll look at the SEC filing then decide if I want to lock in some gains or let it ride. But I’m predisposed to let it ride.

Mind you, today’s plunge doesn’t even take the stock back to the 50 day moving average. My guess is this will resolve quickly, affording a good buying opportunity.

Natural gas is going to be huge this decade.

BAS Earnings After The Close

Basic Energy Services, one of my most favorite positions, is reporting Q1 earnings after the close.

The stock is up ~80% since the start of the year. Accordingly, it is being afforded a little break today, while longs lock in some gains.

Cain Hammond Thaler will not be among the profiteers, as he is resting self-assuredly in his 9th floor office, indifferent to the prospect of a BAS sell off. Cocky, even.

Natural gas spot pricing is back to $4.70. That is a huge rebound from the mighty flush out that first put the natural gas sector on ice. Since which time, BAS and strengthened their corporate entity, engaging in buy outs and solidifying the balance sheet.

Let’s see what they can do.

Previous Posts by Mr. Cain Thaler