Category Archives: Corporate Earnings
The most popular (and esoteric) argument for gun stocks being overpriced seems based largely on a riddle that goes something like this:
“You tell me, what happens when gun legislation passes and the buyers realize everything will be okay?”
Which is lovely. I enjoy riddles. And word games. And the works of Nabokov. But this isn’t about playful respite; this is about making money and being right. It becomes my duty, therefore, to thrash you.
I now present three illuminating bullets (I just proofread this and realized I made a pun):
* Stocks like RGR are only trading where they were before sales went crazy
* This legislation will not be hindering gun makers – background checks are perfectly doable because they will most likely have maximum waiting periods attached (1 month or less or else all clear); that’s a minimum to get the measure through the House (if anything even can)
* And, the big shebang…RGR hasn’t raised gun prices and I’m not sure the others have either
Yeah, see that’s the big open secret here. Guns are selling out of stock, but RGR’s CEO was adamant that his company would not be raising prices because, as he phrased it, “gun buyers as a group have long collective memories.” He doesn’t want to prey off his customer base, so RGR hasn’t raised weapons prices at all.
Ergo, once this bill passes and people go “oh, wait, that’s not so bad,” there will be no price incentive for them to cancel their order (“I could sit back and wait for prices to calm down…”). That, right there, isn’t happening. The guns that have been jumping in price are private sales. So, in RGR’s case (and I suspect the other manufacturers as well), there’s no clear financial edge to back out.
There is, however, still the looming possibility that Republicans could lose more seats (remind me, what is the popularity of the GOP at the moment?)…
(I told you I like riddles too)
And so, I am afraid (I’m not actually afraid) that this robust bounty of profitability RGR and the gun market at large are seeing is very much sustainable for a duration of at least a year (possibly two). While eventually and inevitably these orders will slow down, I really couldn’t care less. You see, the stocks are not pricing in this raw influx of cash, and one solid year of the orders they’re experiencing is the equivalent of several years worth of business, all front loaded and with minimum inventory risk attached.
Alright, I’ve reached the conclusion that I won’t have time to sit down and just carve out the entire culmination of my thoughts on BXG and what drove me to buy the name. I don’t have the uninterrupted gap of time to make that happen – and it needs to get done.
So instead we’re taking the modular construction approach here; I’m carving this thing up into pieces and I’ll let you assemble it all when I’m done.
The introduction to the name is as follows: Bluegreen is a timeshare corporation. They weren’t always timeshare, they used to be just a regular real estate company of some kind, if I’m remembering, but then in the 90’s they got into timeshare in a big way. They sort of pioneered the modern timeshare concept, taking the real estate deed/title holder model but building an exchange based travel agency on top of it, so you could go to other owner’s properties at different times of the year – before, you were restricted to the destination you purchased at the time you purchased for.
Alright, so Bluegreen got absolutely rocked in 2008/2009. But they had some management changes and the operation was cleaned up spectacularly. I’ll get into that in more intricate detail later.
Now, the company presently has limited upside of $10 a share…exactly. That’s because the chairman of BXG, an, er…interesting figure by the name of Alan Levan with possible Jeffrey Fastow-type tendencies has accepted an all cash offer to take the company private from a financial group by the name of BankAtlantic Bankcorp (BFCF), which is also chaired by, um…Alan Levan. BFCF presently owns 51% of Bluegreen stock.
The offer was originally for 8 shares of BFCF for every 1 share of BXG, but that was headed for a complete shutdown so Levan changed the offer for what is now a pure cash play.
Now, in my next piece I’ll get more detailed on the possible developments I see with the offer and the company in a minute, but I’ll leave you with this to start: at the current $10 offer, with the stock trading for ~$9.80, there’s a simple arbitrage here that nets about 2%.
In my next post, I’ll argue that that’s probably the minimal outcome and explain what I’d rather see happen.
RGR is reporting its first crop of earnings since the Sandyhook tragedy and the major push for gun control got underway. I’m looking around the room, and I’m seeing earnings getting lifted by 10% from the last round. And after that? Some analysts are even showing EPS dropping within the year. Look, let me ask you something, point blank.
Are you people out of your fucking minds?
You need to understand, Mr. Bloomberg analyst; I hate your guts.
It’s not that I
have anything against your business don’t like you disrespect you…okay you know what, I’ve tried starting this sentence three times, so I’m just gonna call it quits here.
The problem is that you are a gigantic pussy. God it feels good to finally say that! Enough of this PC bullshit.
You are a gigantic bitch. You little New York dwellers hang out on your tiny little island with your thirty five thousand armed guards and no sense of how the rest of the country operates. You get all caught up in ten thousand fake Twitter handles that #DemandChangeNOW and miss, subsequently, what is staring you right in the face.
And why do you let this happen to yourselves? So that one day, maybe, Mike Bloomberg will say “hmm” to you while you shuffle breathlessly out of his way to the bathroom.
Now let me show you why your estimates are complete garbage
Now, do you notice how I can almost count on two hands how many guns they have left in this case?
You are busy lifting earnings estimates for gun manufacturers by a paltry 10% and meanwhile, gun inventories have been sacked by >80%. In this particular store, this was one case. They had another five that looked exactly like this. I can count on one hand how many Ruger handguns were left for sale. And meanwhile, you can only bring yourself to lifting EPS estimates by 10%, while viciously penning that “Bloomberg employee loyalist” piece hyping the ‘dangers’ to gun stocks that will just absolutely materialize from legislation and judiciary action. And of course reminding everyone that these sales levels cannot continue indefinitely.
DO YOU THINK I CARE IF THEY EXTEND INDEFINITELY!?
The company just sold a years’ worth of firearms in a fucking month. And, I revel in revealing this to you, but you’ve got two years until the midterm elections, and at the moment Republicans are looking vulnerable. That’s two years during which gun enthusiasts can panic and buy as many weapons as their budgets can handle. Two years, before you have any chance of stemming the flood, too…
RGR is backlogged with demand. They have so much F-ing demand, they need to expand their borrowing capacity just to try and keep up with it. Why, just Thursday they signed an agreement with Bank of America to expand one of their lines of credit by $15 million. You can expect more of that sort of thing, I can assure you. That’s at least 30,000 more weapons being made, all on sales that are being satisfied, really, before manufacturing or wholesale.
Think about that in shame the next time you think of writing up one of these moralizing trash pieces.
CCJ’s 2012 revenue attributable to shareholders plummeted 41% from last year. The 4th quarter was an absolute bloodbath, with revenue off 83%. Most of the carnage is from a massive write down the company took on a project called Kintyre. The rest is from uranium prices being cut down mercilessly.
However, you should have known this was going to be ugly, if only from the most recent sales prices of uranium-308.
When prices go into free fall like that, it means one thing: no actual sales are occurring.
The end of 2012 was horrible for uranium sales. Because reactors don’t require a continuous feed of fuel, there exist periods where their operators may elect to sit back and not come to market. So really, almost nothing was done at the end of the year. This makes sense – with two major elections (Japan and the US), global uncertainty, looming recession, and no imminent need for uranium, producers were in the uncomfortable position of having no buyers. If you were a lowly player, desperate for some sales to keep the doors open, the last three months were not a good time for you.
But that’s all drawing to an end soon. Japan and the US have reaffirmed nuclear energy. Emerging markets are going full bore. Russia is done flooding the market with cheap HEU stock.
We are preparing for an epic resurgence of nuclear fuel prices.
Would you care for a second opinion?
I’ve been hammering on this point since the Fukushima reactor was still busy melting down. I’ve mentioned all the points myself – expectations of the ability of countries to drop nuclear power are unrealistic. One does not simply drop 30% of their grid. And with the immense competition for power sources globally, ignoring such a potent fuel is madness.
Now, slowly, all of my predictions, as laid out literally in the middle of the tsunami crisis, are playing out. Japan is backtracking. The US has confirmed they intend to move forward with construction of the first reactors built in this country is 30 years. The emerging markets are embracing nuclear to diversify their grids. Environmentalists have even begun marginalizing the anti-nuclear activists in their ranks – crushing their ability to be heard; mocking them openly.
Next up, Europe starts caving, led by Germany; which has no choice but to acknowledge that there is no way they can replace their nuclear facilities with windmills and solar panels.
And as these realizations hit, the price for nuclear fuel is going to skyrocket. With it, CCJ’s earnings will go from the worst in its history, to the very best.
Bring it, kids. I have your numbers. It’s time to pay up.
For all the analyst pessimism; for all the downtrodden complaints about cap rates and cash flow; for all the smirks that a company would ever bother “repaying what it owes” rather than leveraging up (more); AEC once again smashed earnings.
FFO gorged itself, plus >30%. Profits swelled. The operations of this multifamily improved considerably. And their flashy new credit rating shows off those improvements.
And through it all, occupancy held 96%.
It’s time for the REIT analysts to face the music – they were wrong. They were wrong about the company. They were wrong about the profitability of AEC being hindered by a paltry few percent in cap rates. They were wrong about an exodus of renters leaving the market.
None of those things happened.
Or you can keep your head in the sand. I’ll just keep watching FFO build at a 30% clip, add at these ridiculous prices, and take a fat payday down the road.
The short sellers, far too early to the water, have received a surprise blast to the chest today as the melt up defiantly continued from an early reversal. Many of you had been expecting that inauguration day would be the mark, in hindsight, of the top.
Then this pony kicked you in the throat.
We are not done going higher. Diligent reports delivered to the 9th floor, contained in secret manila envelopes on my desk, detail that we will be making new highs by mid-February.
Short seller capitulation is demanded by the longs. Profits must be extracted by pain. Scott Bleier’s theory of retail market allocation is in full effect here – anyone leaning against equities here is eligible to have their spine broken in twain.
Only real numbers being reported will stop this freight train. Nobody cares about disappointing economic numbers because CEO guidance remains high. Thus, CEO’s have a few more months to deflect trouble and keep their heads down. And there is nothing that can get in the bull’s way.