Tourney Update – Round of 32

The Sweet 16 is now set, after some close escapes (UCLA, Stanford, Memphis, Texas, Tennessee), several blowouts (UNC, Louisville, Wazzu, Kansas), and a few surprises. Three Cinderellas are left, including ‘Nova, W.Kentucky, W.Virginia, and Davidson. Here’s Andy Katz’s sneak peek.

Davidson are my new favorites…that Stephen Curry kid is amazing! MVP of the first 2 rounds?

UNC looks unstoppable, by the way, but I will of course continue rooting for the Cougars. It’ll be a match-up of stifling defense vs. amazing offense.

Also, note that UCLA plays next on Thursday @ 6:45 PDT. Write that down.

In the iBC pool, Patrick continues his reign at the top, with 35 correct picks (73%). However, he has lost a Final Four team in Pitt, so the 2nd place & tastefully named ‘smegma’ is the leader in the potential points category.

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Thanks for playing. Better luck next year!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fHP2jiyzmY 450 300]

So Sorry. D-R-O-G-B-A!!!

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Patrick & ‘client #1’ maintain their positions at the top, but are joined by the ‘Asshats’ of Joseph T. 

Also, Vladimir Mandingo, who I can only assume is The Fly’s real persona, is close behind (although he has already lost a Final Four team in Drake).

There were a couple 4 vs. 13 upsets yesterday, including the San Diego boys from the WCC saving the honor of the conference. 

It helped that they played in Tampa, where all 4 lower seeds advanced (San Diego, Siena, Villanova, Western Kentucky), thus making Tournament history!  Amazing.  This also means that we’re guaranteed at least 2 double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16, due to the two 12 vs. 13 match-ups we’ll be having this weekend.

Should be a great one!

NOTE:  Due to my natural hatred of the state of Indiana, my affiliation with the state of Washington, and my man-crush on the Pac-10, I will be rooting for Washington State to beat down the Irish.

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Congratulations to Patrick & ‘client #1’ for picking all but 1 of the games so far correctly in the inaugural iBC March Madness.

Of course, on a day with few upsets, there are many nipping right on their heels.  Except Ragin’, whose overall winner, Kentucky, is already out!  Belmont tried to make things interesting against Duke, but choked somewhat disappointingly.  I was most looking forward to the USC vs. K.State game, but it did not live up to the hype.

In fact, just about the most exciting thing about today were the UCLA cheerleaders. Which is why they will always emerge victorious:

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For those stuck at work & not aware, this is the greatest thing since sliced bread:  http://ncaasports.com/mmod

Watch all the games, live, for free, and without annoying commentary (Gus Johnson excluded).

NOTE:  Commentary is now back.  Where’s that volume button!?

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I meant to post this earlier in the week, but it should still be applicable tomorrow, and in subsequent months.

As I wrote last week, an option’s price is determined by its intrinsic + time value.  And since time value decays to zero as the option moves close to expiration, the day & week of expiration are the time to take advantage of reduced option pricing complexity.  Here are a couple ways to do so:

Buying ITM options:

With reduced extrinsic value, buying these options imitates actually owning the stock (to a certain degree).  This further reduces risk (less to lose to time decay), yet retains the leverage advantage of options vs. stock. 

ITM options at expiration allow profits to be gained from slow moves in the underlying stock’s price.  Slow, low volatility moves usually spell trouble for option values…but with no/very low time value to affect, volatility gets taken out of the equation.  Even if the stock remains flat, all that will be lost are commission fees. 

Buying OTM/ATM options:

As always, these options carry higher risk than the ITM flavors.  The underlying has to move in the right direction and in the right time-frame.  And obviously the time-frame gets grossly reduced during expiration week/day.  However, with the reduced time-frame come cheaper OTM options, greatly increasing leverage and potential profits.  A volatile market, like the one we are currently experiencing, also increases the likelyhood of profitability.

This strategy should not be used too overzealously as it can deplete your account real quick-like.  But a few good bets in the right direction can make you a rich (wo)man.

NOTE:  Potential Target?  Can lightning strike twice?

NOTE, Part II:  Others that I’m looking at:

• Calls:  [[LIFC]] 40.0; [[SPSN]] 2.50; [[TCB]] 20.0
• Puts:  [[BSC]] 5.00; [[PRU]] 70.0

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