Shit Wrapped As a Gift

That is precisely what this market is. Through September, a notoriously bad month for stocks, we have been given several 1%+ up days. However, those up days have seen breadth average at best, and wild cross currents that could cast doubt on the most staunch of permabulls. Fights like AAPL vs. FCX, Tech vs. Industrials, Small cap vs. Large cap, etc., are crowding the marketplace with enough evidence for both the bear and bull that literally no one knows where to go. And on a more macro scale, we have inflation freaks vs. deflationistas, both with smoking gun’s of their own. Or, we have those who see an accurate value on the S&P at 1400+, and those who see 30% EPS revisions, to the downside, coming around the mountain.

I’ve been a victim as well. Typically, my style is to capitalize on the hot parts of the market on up moves, capturing some % points here and there, and then locking in profits and protecting the downside via inverse ETFs. I’m not one for shorting, usually. Nor am I one for operating a “neutral” book. I pride myself on, and bank coin by correctly stipulating where interim market tops and bottoms occur. So since my return from summer travels, and initiation of this blog, I’ve been relatively numb, unable to formulate a thesis for any day, let alone a week. Today is no different, as again I’m handicapped by several stocks that just won’t fucking perform, despite the market being +1%. In fact, my best trades this month have been the hedges I’ve put on, correctly protecting myself from the downside action we’ve witnessed thus far this month. For that reason, proper hedging, I’ve been able to keep my losses at a minimum, the book only being down less than 1%.

I’m presented with a problem, though. If my style isn’t working, I need to adapt. More to come….