Coming to a Store Near You – Personalized Pricing

581 views

According to this article in the NY Times, Supermarket chains like Kroger, Safeway and Ahold (Stop ‘n Shop) are experimenting with with personalized pricing for their customers.

What’s personalized pricing? It’s providing different pricing to customers based on their specific buying habits like this:

At a Safeway in Denver, a 24-pack of Refreshe bottled water costs $2.71 for Jennie Sanford, a project manager. For Emily Vanek, a blogger, the price is $3.69.

The difference? The vast shopping data Safeway maintains on both women through its loyalty card program. Ms. Sanford has a history of buying Refreshe brand products, but not its bottled water, while Ms. Vanek, a Smartwater partisan, said she was unlikely to try Refreshe.

So Ms. Sanford gets the nudge to put another Refreshe product into her grocery cart, with the hope that she will keep buying it, and increase the company’s sales of bottled water. A Safeway Web site shows her the lower price, which is applied when she swipes her loyalty card at checkout.

Safeway added the personalization program to its stores this summer. For now, it is creating personalized offers, but it says it has the capability to adjust prices based on shoppers’ habits and may add that feature.

Basically it’s “on the fly” coupons targeting customers likely to try a specific product.

So what’s the downside?

If your a regular customer of a brand or product, say Tide for example, you may have to pay more for a box of the detergent than someone buying the product at the exact same moment. The pricing model is expected to extend to other grocery chains — and over time could displace standardized price tags.

Joseph Turow, a professor at the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Pennsylvania, said shoppers should be cautious. The pricing at grocery stores and other retailers is not transparent enough to give consumers any real power or choice, he said, and “there’s a sense of fairness that’s derailed here.”

In a 2005 survey conducted by Professor Turow, most adult respondents did not know that retailers could legally charge different prices, and more than 90 percent said they would dislike it if their supermarket charged different prices to different people within the same hour.

Retailers say the groundwork has been laid with individualized coupons, which are resoundingly popular. Sites like Amazon have also made consumers comfortable with custom offers and varying pricing, they say

So if personalized pricing is the future for retail, how can you win?

Some shoppers are already figuring out ways to beat the system. Two women, both of whom live in the Denver area, were among the first customers that Safeway asked to test its pricing program in return for a $50 gift card.

Like any good shoppers, these ladies are already starting to game the system: One noticed that she received cheaper prices on ground coffee when she alternated between Starbucks and Dunkin’ Donuts brands rather than buying just Starbucks.

Either way wih technology , retailers are trying to get the shirt of your back

Rationalizations of Bulls & Bears

222 views

Read a very entertaining thread at Tradertalk. It started out about sentiment but evolved (disintegrated?) into  rationalizations.

The crux of it is whenever a trader is on the wrong side of the charts… ..there must be a reason.

The Bear Rationalization:  Rallies are a result of Fed, ECB, QE, POMO, Repo, Twist, Dollar debasement, Goldman. Any temporary down-drafts in the markets are heralded as the return of free markets and vindication of old school TA, only to followed by cries of manipulation when the reversal occurs. Even on a technical basis most rallies are either on fumes, breadth not confirming, volume MCO lagging, VIX too low, too much complacency, overextended/parabolic, divergent, dangerously topping, three peaks and domed house, hindenburg omen, imminent pole flip, dangerous planetary combinations, et al. And when the technicals are too strong, the fundamentals which are in a perpetual gutter, are always there to help. So there is always a reason to suspect any up move in the markets

The Bull Rationalization: blaming the Fed or the ECB for not doing enough when there are major sell offs or crashes. There’s Naked shorting and no regulations and it’s all a rigged game by the big boyz. And, we can also throw in excuses like the “Fat Finger” and computer glitches and flash crashes.  All sell offs are buying opportunities because there’s a lot of money on the sideline, stocks are cheap, it’s a market of stocks, I’m a long term investor, and the return on T-bills won’t beat inflation.

A really good trader named Jess Livermore once said “when the facts change, I change my mind”

Sage advice indeud

“We know about this” – Something you don’t want to read on the damaged wing of your plane

594 views

 

 

 

 

For those of you who travel, seeing the words “We Know About This” scrawled on the damaged wing of your aircraft, as you taxi down the runway probably sounds like something from “the Twilight Zone”

But that’s just what happened to a passenger on this Alaska Air flight bound for Seattle from Burbank:

According to Alaska Air the flight was perfectly safe…

Alaska Airlines spokeswoman Bobbie Egan said that the photo showed a permanent approved trim repair to the corner flap of the right wing, and that the plane was absolutely safe to fly.

“The small indent shown in the photo was reported multiple times in multiple flight crew reports. A maintenance technician wrote on the wing to acknowledge to flight crews that the repair was made, documented and that the plane was airworthy,” she said.

Egan said the airline immediately removed the message from the wing upon hearing about it, and apologized for any alarm it may have caused.

uhh… gee… Thanks Alaska Air (ALK)

Cue the scary music………

 

 

 

What to do in case of a Malware Attack

2,480 views

What prompts me to write this is today I clicked on a link in Digg and I launched a malware attack on my computer. Luckily when the pop up happened I knew what to do – which was NOT click on anything in the webpage, open my task manager and stop Internet Explorer. I’m fortunate it was a lower grade attack and that solved the problem.  I’ve dealt with shit before so hopefully this may be helpful to some of you

For those not familiar with Malware – it is a malicious software that can attack your computer via an e-mail attachment or script running on a web page. Malware includes computer viruses, worms, trojan horses, spyware, adware, and other malicious programs.

 

One of the most common attacks I see lately is when a web page seizes control of your browser (like Internet explorer) telling you your PC is infected – here is a screenshot of one of the variety of different attacks also known as scareware. Once infected your machine will be locked out of websites, your antivirus turned off and most, if not all, internet communications blocked.

The goal of this particular product is not just to load your PC with virus, but to also con you into paying the website for the “cure” to fix the Malware. You’d be surprised at how many people actually do this.

Here are a few easy steps to prevent Malware attacks and also to deal with them if you become infected

Prevention

Not getting the Malware is the best possible option, but you’ll find it hidden in some of the most popular websites including Digg, Reddit and Google image search results. Here are a few tools, listed in no particular order you may want to install

1. Firefox Browser – No Script and Adblock + pop-up – Both of these tools are pretty effective in preventing scripts from running on web pages

2. Internet Explorer – No scripting plug ins available but you can filter active x components and has a pop up blocker that works sometimes

3. Web of Trust  – a plug in warning system that blocks known Malware websites (also works well for Parental controls) in IE or Firefox

4. Malwarebytes – a Free Malware identification and elimination tool. Running a scan weekly is a good way to identify and kill malicious software. This is a great product and they even offer forums full of people very willing to try and help

5. Spybot Seek and Destroy – Another free Malware tool that works very well

Some of the Malware out there can totally disable any of these tools. In those cases there are a couple things you can try.  Restart the machine in Safe mode then run Malwarebytes or Spybot is the first. Depending on the Malware it may fix the problem or you may have to try to restore to a previous date.

The worst case scenario is a total wipe of your machine and starting over. This is quite painful and, if you have to do it, hopefully you have all of our files, documents, pictures, etc. backed up

Good Luck and please feel free to ask any questions

 

Your Social Security Update

313 views

 

 

 

 

In the No Shit Sherlock category AP reports Social Security “Not the deal it once was” for workers.

People retiring today are part of the first generation of workers who have paid more in Social Security taxes during their careers than they will receive in benefits after they retire. It’s a historic shift that will only get worse for future retirees, according to an analysis by The Associated Press

If you retired in 1960, you could expect to get back seven times more in benefits than you paid in Social Security taxes, and more if you were a low-income worker, as long you made it to age 78 for men and 81 for women.

As recently as 1985, workers at every income level could retire and expect to get more in benefits than they paid in Social Security taxes, though they didn’t do quite as well as their parents and grandparents.

Not anymore.

A married couple retiring last year after both spouses earned average lifetime wages paid about $598,000 in Social Security taxes during their careers. They can expect to collect about $556,000 in benefits, if the man lives to 82 and the woman lives to 85, according to a 2011 study by the Urban Institute, a Washington think tank.

Social Security benefits are progressive, so most low-income workers retiring today still will get slightly more in benefits than they paid in taxes. Most high-income workers started getting less in benefits than they paid in taxes in the 1990s, according to data from the Social Security Administration.

Obviously all of us that really counted on a Govt. backed Ponzi Scheme to fund our lavish retirement are both shocked and saddened at this sudden and unforeseen turn of events:

The trustees who oversee Social Security say its funds, which have been built up over the past 30 years with surplus payroll taxes, will run dry in 2033 unless Congress acts. At that point, payroll taxes would provide enough revenue each year to pay about 75 percent of benefits.

To cover the shortfall, future retirees probably will have to pay higher taxes while they are working, accept lower benefits after they retire, or some combination of both.

“Future generations are going to do worse because either they are going to get fewer benefits or they are going to pay higher taxes,” said Eugene Steuerle, a former Treasury official who has studied the issue as a fellow at the Urban Institute.

So how can we game the system…. why the answer is perfectly clear…..

Live longer. Benefit estimates are based on life expectancy. For those turning 65 this year, Social Security expects women to live 20 more years and men to live 17.8 more

Because that is of course something we have total control over. It also reminds me of this joke:

Why do husbands die sooner then their wives?

Because they want to 

GOOG vs. AMZN

3,193 views

According to a recent report published by Forrester 30% of all online shoppers now begin their search at Amazon rather than Google.

According to this article 86% of Americans who have bought something online said they’ve purchased from Amazon before and pressures on competitors as Amazon now controls more than 19 percent of all U.S. e commerce revenue, compared to 9 percent in 2001.

Google attracted only 13 percent of potential buyers as the first stop shop for product research. This is noteworthy change from 2009, when Google led Amazon among consumers 24 percent to 18 percent.

The downside for Amazon comes at the expense of retailers selling through the amazon marketplace:

There have been reports of sellers going into extreme pricing wars to win buy boxes (competing against other sellers and Amazon themselves). On top of that, there have been multiple retailer reports of Amazon reaching out direct to manufacturers that sellers on Amazon use (since retailers give up rights to all sales data that takes place on Amazon, Amazon can easily look at the big picture of their sales data and pick and choose where to expand their own fulfill by Amazon product line). Amazon may soon feel the pain as more retailers leave to list their product elsewhere.

A quick look at the Stock performance of GOOG vs. AMZN over the past 9 months shows GOOG the clear winner. Obviously this is based solely on ad and click through revenues as some things will never be sold via AMZN. What is interesting is that AMZN has set it’s sites on Groupon (GRPN) and similar competitors with their Amazon Local program.

Protect Yourself from Credit Card & ATM Skimming

1,105 views

Identity theft, via Credit / Debit cards and ATM skimming is now a billion dollar a year crime.

If you’re not aware how the crime works, crooks can buy a magnetic stripe reader like this off the Internet for as low as $20. They can affix the device to a gas pump or ATM and when you insert your card, they read all of the information. In some cases a camera may be installed to watch the pinpad (where you enter your PIN ) or your zip code. Sometimes they will just loiter in the vicinity and watch you punch in the numbers.

Once the data is stored they download it to a computer and will either order product from merchants that don’t require extra information like the 3 digit CVV code on the back or they can simply buy blank cards and load your credit card information to it. Once they have a loaded card, they’ll use it at gas stations or self check-out at various stores.

Another way the scam works is they will give the skimmer to a waiter / gas station attendant / clerk and pay them to harvest the information. In this scenario the accomplice will write down the CVV after the skim has happened making it even easier for thecrime to happen. So how can you protect yourself?

Here are a few easy steps:

  1. If using an ATM, gas pump or any other manual device – grab the plastic area where the card inserts, If it feels loose or looks different than other readers – Don’t use it and alert the store / bank branch etc.
  2. Shield the keypad as you enter your PIN #. Simply place your hand over the pad and block it from view
  3. At bars or restaurants walk with the staff to the credit card terminal when it’s time to pay. Seriously. Explain to them “why” and you may be doing them a favor so they don’t get ripped off.
  4. Use cash – although as someone who travels for a living I know this isn’t always practical or safe in every instance.
  5.  Have your bank or card provider put you on alert for any suspicious activity. Many do this already but in some smaller banks you’ll need to request this service.

You’ve probably seen videos like these on your local TV news. In case you haven’t I’ve picked out some of the better ones:

 

 

Coming to a Store Near You – Personalized Pricing

581 views

According to this article in the NY Times, Supermarket chains like Kroger, Safeway and Ahold (Stop ‘n Shop) are experimenting with with personalized pricing for their customers.

What’s personalized pricing? It’s providing different pricing to customers based on their specific buying habits like this:

At a Safeway in Denver, a 24-pack of Refreshe bottled water costs $2.71 for Jennie Sanford, a project manager. For Emily Vanek, a blogger, the price is $3.69.

The difference? The vast shopping data Safeway maintains on both women through its loyalty card program. Ms. Sanford has a history of buying Refreshe brand products, but not its bottled water, while Ms. Vanek, a Smartwater partisan, said she was unlikely to try Refreshe.

So Ms. Sanford gets the nudge to put another Refreshe product into her grocery cart, with the hope that she will keep buying it, and increase the company’s sales of bottled water. A Safeway Web site shows her the lower price, which is applied when she swipes her loyalty card at checkout.

Safeway added the personalization program to its stores this summer. For now, it is creating personalized offers, but it says it has the capability to adjust prices based on shoppers’ habits and may add that feature.

Basically it’s “on the fly” coupons targeting customers likely to try a specific product.

So what’s the downside?

If your a regular customer of a brand or product, say Tide for example, you may have to pay more for a box of the detergent than someone buying the product at the exact same moment. The pricing model is expected to extend to other grocery chains — and over time could displace standardized price tags.

Joseph Turow, a professor at the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Pennsylvania, said shoppers should be cautious. The pricing at grocery stores and other retailers is not transparent enough to give consumers any real power or choice, he said, and “there’s a sense of fairness that’s derailed here.”

In a 2005 survey conducted by Professor Turow, most adult respondents did not know that retailers could legally charge different prices, and more than 90 percent said they would dislike it if their supermarket charged different prices to different people within the same hour.

Retailers say the groundwork has been laid with individualized coupons, which are resoundingly popular. Sites like Amazon have also made consumers comfortable with custom offers and varying pricing, they say

So if personalized pricing is the future for retail, how can you win?

Some shoppers are already figuring out ways to beat the system. Two women, both of whom live in the Denver area, were among the first customers that Safeway asked to test its pricing program in return for a $50 gift card.

Like any good shoppers, these ladies are already starting to game the system: One noticed that she received cheaper prices on ground coffee when she alternated between Starbucks and Dunkin’ Donuts brands rather than buying just Starbucks.

Either way wih technology , retailers are trying to get the shirt of your back

Rationalizations of Bulls & Bears

222 views

Read a very entertaining thread at Tradertalk. It started out about sentiment but evolved (disintegrated?) into  rationalizations.

The crux of it is whenever a trader is on the wrong side of the charts… ..there must be a reason.

The Bear Rationalization:  Rallies are a result of Fed, ECB, QE, POMO, Repo, Twist, Dollar debasement, Goldman. Any temporary down-drafts in the markets are heralded as the return of free markets and vindication of old school TA, only to followed by cries of manipulation when the reversal occurs. Even on a technical basis most rallies are either on fumes, breadth not confirming, volume MCO lagging, VIX too low, too much complacency, overextended/parabolic, divergent, dangerously topping, three peaks and domed house, hindenburg omen, imminent pole flip, dangerous planetary combinations, et al. And when the technicals are too strong, the fundamentals which are in a perpetual gutter, are always there to help. So there is always a reason to suspect any up move in the markets

The Bull Rationalization: blaming the Fed or the ECB for not doing enough when there are major sell offs or crashes. There’s Naked shorting and no regulations and it’s all a rigged game by the big boyz. And, we can also throw in excuses like the “Fat Finger” and computer glitches and flash crashes.  All sell offs are buying opportunities because there’s a lot of money on the sideline, stocks are cheap, it’s a market of stocks, I’m a long term investor, and the return on T-bills won’t beat inflation.

A really good trader named Jess Livermore once said “when the facts change, I change my mind”

Sage advice indeud

“We know about this” – Something you don’t want to read on the damaged wing of your plane

594 views

 

 

 

 

For those of you who travel, seeing the words “We Know About This” scrawled on the damaged wing of your aircraft, as you taxi down the runway probably sounds like something from “the Twilight Zone”

But that’s just what happened to a passenger on this Alaska Air flight bound for Seattle from Burbank:

According to Alaska Air the flight was perfectly safe…

Alaska Airlines spokeswoman Bobbie Egan said that the photo showed a permanent approved trim repair to the corner flap of the right wing, and that the plane was absolutely safe to fly.

“The small indent shown in the photo was reported multiple times in multiple flight crew reports. A maintenance technician wrote on the wing to acknowledge to flight crews that the repair was made, documented and that the plane was airworthy,” she said.

Egan said the airline immediately removed the message from the wing upon hearing about it, and apologized for any alarm it may have caused.

uhh… gee… Thanks Alaska Air (ALK)

Cue the scary music………

 

 

 

What to do in case of a Malware Attack

2,480 views

What prompts me to write this is today I clicked on a link in Digg and I launched a malware attack on my computer. Luckily when the pop up happened I knew what to do – which was NOT click on anything in the webpage, open my task manager and stop Internet Explorer. I’m fortunate it was a lower grade attack and that solved the problem.  I’ve dealt with shit before so hopefully this may be helpful to some of you

For those not familiar with Malware – it is a malicious software that can attack your computer via an e-mail attachment or script running on a web page. Malware includes computer viruses, worms, trojan horses, spyware, adware, and other malicious programs.

 

One of the most common attacks I see lately is when a web page seizes control of your browser (like Internet explorer) telling you your PC is infected – here is a screenshot of one of the variety of different attacks also known as scareware. Once infected your machine will be locked out of websites, your antivirus turned off and most, if not all, internet communications blocked.

The goal of this particular product is not just to load your PC with virus, but to also con you into paying the website for the “cure” to fix the Malware. You’d be surprised at how many people actually do this.

Here are a few easy steps to prevent Malware attacks and also to deal with them if you become infected

Prevention

Not getting the Malware is the best possible option, but you’ll find it hidden in some of the most popular websites including Digg, Reddit and Google image search results. Here are a few tools, listed in no particular order you may want to install

1. Firefox Browser – No Script and Adblock + pop-up – Both of these tools are pretty effective in preventing scripts from running on web pages

2. Internet Explorer – No scripting plug ins available but you can filter active x components and has a pop up blocker that works sometimes

3. Web of Trust  – a plug in warning system that blocks known Malware websites (also works well for Parental controls) in IE or Firefox

4. Malwarebytes – a Free Malware identification and elimination tool. Running a scan weekly is a good way to identify and kill malicious software. This is a great product and they even offer forums full of people very willing to try and help

5. Spybot Seek and Destroy – Another free Malware tool that works very well

Some of the Malware out there can totally disable any of these tools. In those cases there are a couple things you can try.  Restart the machine in Safe mode then run Malwarebytes or Spybot is the first. Depending on the Malware it may fix the problem or you may have to try to restore to a previous date.

The worst case scenario is a total wipe of your machine and starting over. This is quite painful and, if you have to do it, hopefully you have all of our files, documents, pictures, etc. backed up

Good Luck and please feel free to ask any questions

 

Your Social Security Update

313 views

 

 

 

 

In the No Shit Sherlock category AP reports Social Security “Not the deal it once was” for workers.

People retiring today are part of the first generation of workers who have paid more in Social Security taxes during their careers than they will receive in benefits after they retire. It’s a historic shift that will only get worse for future retirees, according to an analysis by The Associated Press

If you retired in 1960, you could expect to get back seven times more in benefits than you paid in Social Security taxes, and more if you were a low-income worker, as long you made it to age 78 for men and 81 for women.

As recently as 1985, workers at every income level could retire and expect to get more in benefits than they paid in Social Security taxes, though they didn’t do quite as well as their parents and grandparents.

Not anymore.

A married couple retiring last year after both spouses earned average lifetime wages paid about $598,000 in Social Security taxes during their careers. They can expect to collect about $556,000 in benefits, if the man lives to 82 and the woman lives to 85, according to a 2011 study by the Urban Institute, a Washington think tank.

Social Security benefits are progressive, so most low-income workers retiring today still will get slightly more in benefits than they paid in taxes. Most high-income workers started getting less in benefits than they paid in taxes in the 1990s, according to data from the Social Security Administration.

Obviously all of us that really counted on a Govt. backed Ponzi Scheme to fund our lavish retirement are both shocked and saddened at this sudden and unforeseen turn of events:

The trustees who oversee Social Security say its funds, which have been built up over the past 30 years with surplus payroll taxes, will run dry in 2033 unless Congress acts. At that point, payroll taxes would provide enough revenue each year to pay about 75 percent of benefits.

To cover the shortfall, future retirees probably will have to pay higher taxes while they are working, accept lower benefits after they retire, or some combination of both.

“Future generations are going to do worse because either they are going to get fewer benefits or they are going to pay higher taxes,” said Eugene Steuerle, a former Treasury official who has studied the issue as a fellow at the Urban Institute.

So how can we game the system…. why the answer is perfectly clear…..

Live longer. Benefit estimates are based on life expectancy. For those turning 65 this year, Social Security expects women to live 20 more years and men to live 17.8 more

Because that is of course something we have total control over. It also reminds me of this joke:

Why do husbands die sooner then their wives?

Because they want to 

GOOG vs. AMZN

3,193 views

According to a recent report published by Forrester 30% of all online shoppers now begin their search at Amazon rather than Google.

According to this article 86% of Americans who have bought something online said they’ve purchased from Amazon before and pressures on competitors as Amazon now controls more than 19 percent of all U.S. e commerce revenue, compared to 9 percent in 2001.

Google attracted only 13 percent of potential buyers as the first stop shop for product research. This is noteworthy change from 2009, when Google led Amazon among consumers 24 percent to 18 percent.

The downside for Amazon comes at the expense of retailers selling through the amazon marketplace:

There have been reports of sellers going into extreme pricing wars to win buy boxes (competing against other sellers and Amazon themselves). On top of that, there have been multiple retailer reports of Amazon reaching out direct to manufacturers that sellers on Amazon use (since retailers give up rights to all sales data that takes place on Amazon, Amazon can easily look at the big picture of their sales data and pick and choose where to expand their own fulfill by Amazon product line). Amazon may soon feel the pain as more retailers leave to list their product elsewhere.

A quick look at the Stock performance of GOOG vs. AMZN over the past 9 months shows GOOG the clear winner. Obviously this is based solely on ad and click through revenues as some things will never be sold via AMZN. What is interesting is that AMZN has set it’s sites on Groupon (GRPN) and similar competitors with their Amazon Local program.

Protect Yourself from Credit Card & ATM Skimming

1,105 views

Identity theft, via Credit / Debit cards and ATM skimming is now a billion dollar a year crime.

If you’re not aware how the crime works, crooks can buy a magnetic stripe reader like this off the Internet for as low as $20. They can affix the device to a gas pump or ATM and when you insert your card, they read all of the information. In some cases a camera may be installed to watch the pinpad (where you enter your PIN ) or your zip code. Sometimes they will just loiter in the vicinity and watch you punch in the numbers.

Once the data is stored they download it to a computer and will either order product from merchants that don’t require extra information like the 3 digit CVV code on the back or they can simply buy blank cards and load your credit card information to it. Once they have a loaded card, they’ll use it at gas stations or self check-out at various stores.

Another way the scam works is they will give the skimmer to a waiter / gas station attendant / clerk and pay them to harvest the information. In this scenario the accomplice will write down the CVV after the skim has happened making it even easier for thecrime to happen. So how can you protect yourself?

Here are a few easy steps:

  1. If using an ATM, gas pump or any other manual device – grab the plastic area where the card inserts, If it feels loose or looks different than other readers – Don’t use it and alert the store / bank branch etc.
  2. Shield the keypad as you enter your PIN #. Simply place your hand over the pad and block it from view
  3. At bars or restaurants walk with the staff to the credit card terminal when it’s time to pay. Seriously. Explain to them “why” and you may be doing them a favor so they don’t get ripped off.
  4. Use cash – although as someone who travels for a living I know this isn’t always practical or safe in every instance.
  5.  Have your bank or card provider put you on alert for any suspicious activity. Many do this already but in some smaller banks you’ll need to request this service.

You’ve probably seen videos like these on your local TV news. In case you haven’t I’ve picked out some of the better ones:

 

 

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