Gain and Pain

40 something Global Director of Business Development for a Security Software Manufacturer. Trading stocks for 15+ years - using primarily technical analysis
Joined Oct 26, 2011
128 Blog Posts

Gain and Pain

Joined Oct 26, 2011
128 Blog Posts

Short of the day

2
594 views

 

VVUS Pharmaceuticals – their claim to fame has been a much hyped wight loss drug Qsvia.

Too bad it was just rejected for sale  Europe

5:31PM Vivus receives formal decision from CHMP: the CHMP recommended against approval of Qsiva as expected (VVUS) 21.06 -1.24 : Co announced that is has received the formal opinion from the European Medicines Agency’s (EMA) Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) following their October 15-18 meeting. As expected, the CHMP recommended against approval of the Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) for Qsiva (phentermine/topiramate ER) for the treatment of obesity in the European Union. The reasons for their decision were due to concerns over the potential cardiovascular and central nervous system effects associated with long-term use, teratogenic potential and use by patients for whom Qsiva is not indicated. The company currently intends to appeal this opinion and request a re-examination of the decision by the CHMP. “The lack of effective pharmacologic treatments for obesity remains a high medical need for many patients in Europe,” stated Peter Tam, VIVUS’ president. “We are committed to getting Qsiva approved in Europe and will work closely with the new rapporteur and co-rapporteur to make this happen.”

In after hours trading the stock is down to $20.55 on the bid / $20.95 on the ask.  This is after declining 5.5% ($1.24) today

Looking at the chart you can see they are  headed back to the pivot tomorrow and in high probablilty the recent swing low at $17.21. If that happens to break – it’s a long way down to fill the gap

 

The Dallas Earthquakes – Good for HEK?

594 views

 

According to Cliff Frohlich, associate director and senior research scientist at the University of Texas at Austin’s Institute for Geophysics, the earthquakes that occured this past weekend near Dallas appear to be connected to the past disposal of wastewater from local hydraulic fracturing operations.

During hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” millions of gallons of high-pressure, chemical-laden water are pumped into an underground geologic formation (the Barnett Shale, in the case of northern Texas) to free up oil. But once fractures have been opened up in the rock and the water pressure is allowed to abate, internal pressure from the rock causes fracking fluids to rise back to the surface, becoming what the natural gas industry calls “flowback,” according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

“That’s dirty water you have to get rid of,” said Frohlich. “One way people do that is to pump it back into the ground.”

In a study he recently published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Frohlich analyzed 67 earthquakes recorded between November 2009 and September 2011 in a 43.5-mile (70 kilometers) grid covering northern Texas’ Barnett Shale formation. He found that all 24 of the earthquakes with the most reliably located epicenters originated within 2 miles (3.2 km) of one or more injection wells for wastewater disposal.

The injection well just south of DFW airport has been out of use since September 2011, according to Frohlich, but he says that doesn’t rule it out as a cause of the weekend’s quakes. He explained that, though water is no longer being added, lingering pressure differences from wastewater injection could still be contributing to the lubrication of long-stuck faults.

“Faults are everywhere. A lot of them are stuck, but if you pump water in there, it reduces friction and the fault slips a little,” Frohlich told Life’s Little Mysteries. “I can’t prove that that’s what happened, but it’s a plausible explanation.”

Heckmann Corporation (HEK) operates as a services-based company focused on total water and wastewater solutions for shale or unconventional oil and gas exploration and production. The company offers water delivery and disposal, trucking, fluids handling, treatment, temporary and permanent pipeline facilities, and water infrastructure services for oil and gas exploration and production companies. It operates multi-modal water disposal, treatment, trucking, and pipeline transportation operations in select shale areas in the United States, including the Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Marcellus, Utica, Barnett, and Tuscaloosa Marine Shale areas

If a definitve link between the Dallas earthquakes and fracking is established I see two possible outcomes. The first is a moratorium on fracking. This doesn’t seem likely given the strong push for energy independence and overall fragile state of the economy. The second scenario is regulation that the water used in the fracking process must be thoroughy cleaned and used at / or transported to ground level.

That’s what Heckman does.

NO QE3 in Sept – 3 Reasons Why

1
288 views

If you’re of the opinion that QE3 will be announced at FOMC in Sept. – here’s 3 reasons why it won’t happen

1. YTD the market is up 12% – this along with a slightly improved unemployment picture is the single biggest reason Uncle Ben doesn’t need to turn the printing presses on. Retail sales improved in July as well. The next two points are solid indicators this thesis is correct.

2. If QE3 was imminent Gold would be rising – It’s not. Gold has been in consolidation for almost a year and 16% off it’s Sept. 2011 high

3. The strength of the USD –  If currency holders believed futher intervention was coming they would be sellinng – they’re not. Likewise if they actually believed the ECB was capable of fixing Europe you would see those dollars buying Euros – again they’re not.

The real question isn’t whether QE3 will happen or not in the fall.

It’s what happens to the equity markets when it doesn’t.

RIMM Buyout Rumors – New Blackberry 10 / Dead Money or Comeback Kid? Chart

3
1,374 views

 

I’ve carried a blackberry for 12 years.

Why?

 

First off it was the phone my previous company told us we had to use when we entered the email age in the late 90s (yea we were a little slow rolling out technology).

But now I work for a different company and for the last 5 years I’ve still carried one because of all the other PDA/ Smart phones I’ve ever tried, it’s the only one that I can bang out a 3 sentence e-mail on in less than 5 minutes. That’s important to me and the 80 million other people still carrying blackberries around the world ( at least that’s what RIMM says the user base is in this article)

And the reason I can actually type a message on a berry is the ingenious little QWERTY pad that they invented and perfected. (If you ever wondered why it’s called a QWERTY just read the top row of letters on the berry or your keyboard). I’ve tried Apple and Android (Samsung and HTC) touch screens but never felt close to being able to work it like that stupid little keyboard. It’s why I have a love hate relationship with my Berry – I love it as an e-mail device (which is Job #1) but it sucks balls as a smartphone.

So it was with hope and trepidation and read that article – on the release of the new Blackberry 10 slated for early next year. Did they get it right? or will it be yet another piece of shit that does e-mail very, very well? – I don’t know but I’m willing to give it a try

Since this is IBC the Mother of all Stock sites, I should mention RIMM as an investment, or maybe more accurately a trade. There’s going to be buzz about BB10, and add in the rumors of IBM or amazon acquiring the enterprise services group .

It’s currently a dollar (14%) off it’s 52 week / 3 yr. low at $7.56. and the overhead supply of money losers is staggering. On the flip side, 18% of the float is short so if BB10 actually is something I could see a nice squeeze developing quickly.

First things first  it would have to bust through that 17 week EMA and it’s acted as a ceiling throughout the entire 15 month avalanche that saw it shed 90% of it’s value

 

 

 

Leaked – iphone 5 photos

864 views

from the macrumors website – photos of the i 5 phone / logic board – Expected release date of Sept. 12

The photos appear to be the front and back of the next generation iPhone logic board which houses the processor and other support chips for the device.  The board is distinct from both the Apple’s iPhone 4S and iPhone 4 logic boards.

 

 

Nowhereelse notes that the screw holes of the logic board lines up exactly with those of the previously leaked shells  The site even created this animated GIF which shows how the holes line up.  The image appears to be mirrored, presumably for clarity.

 

How much is a brand worth? Infographic AAPL, DIS, NKE, MCD, KO

617 views

After IKEA estimated and sold its trademark at $9 billion Euros (US$11 billion), The Wall Street Journal decided to find out the worth of some of the world’s most popular brands.

For the infographic entitled ‘What’s a Brand’s Worth?’, created by Alberto Cervantes, The Wall Street Journal looked to research firms to find out the worth of companies, such as Apple, IKEA, McDonald’s and Nike.

According to research firm Millward Brown the most valuable brand in the world is Apple Inc., with a worth of US$183 billion.

However, Interbrand judges Apple’s brand worth to be only US$33.5 billion—and that Coca-Cola Co. and McDonald’s are worth more at US$71.9 billion and US$35.6 billion respectively.

The firms disagreed less on the value of IKEA and Nike—Interbrand valued IKEA at US$11.9 billion and Nike at US$14.5 billion, while Millward Brown valued IKEA at US$9.2 billion and Nike at US$16.3 billion.

Which is more accurate? That depends on the branding firm. Different firms use different methods are used to come up with values of the companies.

Allen Adamson, a managing director of a branding firm owned by WPP, Landor Associates, told The Wall Street Journal that the value of brand is both art and science.

He said: “It’s simple in theory but hard to pin down in reality. It’s really about how much would a consumer pay for a caramel-colored soda versus how much they would pay for a Coke.”

Are the Transports ready to Rally? – $TRAN Chart

6
1,264 views

 

 

 

 

 

One of the indicators most of the Bears fall back on to shit on the current uptrend id the lack of participation by the Transports

Looking at a weekly view of the one year $TRAN chart it appears to be basing near it’s pivot point at 4866. It’s acted as very solid support, save for the breech at the June 4 lows

 

With the Ryan announcement as Romney’s VP – Will markets rally Monday?

6
425 views

 

 

 

 

Obviously Mitt made this choice to energize a rather lackluster GOP constituency who seem to have “settled” on his candidacy as “Not Obama”

Ryan, known for slashing budgets, could be just the thing to ignite a rally Monday – if the markets think he can help push the GOP over the top in November.

Opinions?

Gain and Pain

40 something Global Director of Business Development for a Security Software Manufacturer. Trading stocks for 15+ years - using primarily technical analysis
Joined Oct 26, 2011
128 Blog Posts

Gain and Pain

Joined Oct 26, 2011
128 Blog Posts

Short of the day

2
594 views

 

VVUS Pharmaceuticals – their claim to fame has been a much hyped wight loss drug Qsvia.

Too bad it was just rejected for sale  Europe

5:31PM Vivus receives formal decision from CHMP: the CHMP recommended against approval of Qsiva as expected (VVUS) 21.06 -1.24 : Co announced that is has received the formal opinion from the European Medicines Agency’s (EMA) Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) following their October 15-18 meeting. As expected, the CHMP recommended against approval of the Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) for Qsiva (phentermine/topiramate ER) for the treatment of obesity in the European Union. The reasons for their decision were due to concerns over the potential cardiovascular and central nervous system effects associated with long-term use, teratogenic potential and use by patients for whom Qsiva is not indicated. The company currently intends to appeal this opinion and request a re-examination of the decision by the CHMP. “The lack of effective pharmacologic treatments for obesity remains a high medical need for many patients in Europe,” stated Peter Tam, VIVUS’ president. “We are committed to getting Qsiva approved in Europe and will work closely with the new rapporteur and co-rapporteur to make this happen.”

In after hours trading the stock is down to $20.55 on the bid / $20.95 on the ask.  This is after declining 5.5% ($1.24) today

Looking at the chart you can see they are  headed back to the pivot tomorrow and in high probablilty the recent swing low at $17.21. If that happens to break – it’s a long way down to fill the gap

 

SPX Decision Point is Here – Chart

2,449 views

 

Right here – Right now.

We wither break the trendline from the June 9 lows or we go higher.

RSI and MACD both say it’s headed south

 

The Dallas Earthquakes – Good for HEK?

594 views

 

According to Cliff Frohlich, associate director and senior research scientist at the University of Texas at Austin’s Institute for Geophysics, the earthquakes that occured this past weekend near Dallas appear to be connected to the past disposal of wastewater from local hydraulic fracturing operations.

During hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” millions of gallons of high-pressure, chemical-laden water are pumped into an underground geologic formation (the Barnett Shale, in the case of northern Texas) to free up oil. But once fractures have been opened up in the rock and the water pressure is allowed to abate, internal pressure from the rock causes fracking fluids to rise back to the surface, becoming what the natural gas industry calls “flowback,” according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

“That’s dirty water you have to get rid of,” said Frohlich. “One way people do that is to pump it back into the ground.”

In a study he recently published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Frohlich analyzed 67 earthquakes recorded between November 2009 and September 2011 in a 43.5-mile (70 kilometers) grid covering northern Texas’ Barnett Shale formation. He found that all 24 of the earthquakes with the most reliably located epicenters originated within 2 miles (3.2 km) of one or more injection wells for wastewater disposal.

The injection well just south of DFW airport has been out of use since September 2011, according to Frohlich, but he says that doesn’t rule it out as a cause of the weekend’s quakes. He explained that, though water is no longer being added, lingering pressure differences from wastewater injection could still be contributing to the lubrication of long-stuck faults.

“Faults are everywhere. A lot of them are stuck, but if you pump water in there, it reduces friction and the fault slips a little,” Frohlich told Life’s Little Mysteries. “I can’t prove that that’s what happened, but it’s a plausible explanation.”

Heckmann Corporation (HEK) operates as a services-based company focused on total water and wastewater solutions for shale or unconventional oil and gas exploration and production. The company offers water delivery and disposal, trucking, fluids handling, treatment, temporary and permanent pipeline facilities, and water infrastructure services for oil and gas exploration and production companies. It operates multi-modal water disposal, treatment, trucking, and pipeline transportation operations in select shale areas in the United States, including the Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Marcellus, Utica, Barnett, and Tuscaloosa Marine Shale areas

If a definitve link between the Dallas earthquakes and fracking is established I see two possible outcomes. The first is a moratorium on fracking. This doesn’t seem likely given the strong push for energy independence and overall fragile state of the economy. The second scenario is regulation that the water used in the fracking process must be thoroughy cleaned and used at / or transported to ground level.

That’s what Heckman does.

NO QE3 in Sept – 3 Reasons Why

1
288 views

If you’re of the opinion that QE3 will be announced at FOMC in Sept. – here’s 3 reasons why it won’t happen

1. YTD the market is up 12% – this along with a slightly improved unemployment picture is the single biggest reason Uncle Ben doesn’t need to turn the printing presses on. Retail sales improved in July as well. The next two points are solid indicators this thesis is correct.

2. If QE3 was imminent Gold would be rising – It’s not. Gold has been in consolidation for almost a year and 16% off it’s Sept. 2011 high

3. The strength of the USD –  If currency holders believed futher intervention was coming they would be sellinng – they’re not. Likewise if they actually believed the ECB was capable of fixing Europe you would see those dollars buying Euros – again they’re not.

The real question isn’t whether QE3 will happen or not in the fall.

It’s what happens to the equity markets when it doesn’t.

RIMM Buyout Rumors – New Blackberry 10 / Dead Money or Comeback Kid? Chart

3
1,374 views

 

I’ve carried a blackberry for 12 years.

Why?

 

First off it was the phone my previous company told us we had to use when we entered the email age in the late 90s (yea we were a little slow rolling out technology).

But now I work for a different company and for the last 5 years I’ve still carried one because of all the other PDA/ Smart phones I’ve ever tried, it’s the only one that I can bang out a 3 sentence e-mail on in less than 5 minutes. That’s important to me and the 80 million other people still carrying blackberries around the world ( at least that’s what RIMM says the user base is in this article)

And the reason I can actually type a message on a berry is the ingenious little QWERTY pad that they invented and perfected. (If you ever wondered why it’s called a QWERTY just read the top row of letters on the berry or your keyboard). I’ve tried Apple and Android (Samsung and HTC) touch screens but never felt close to being able to work it like that stupid little keyboard. It’s why I have a love hate relationship with my Berry – I love it as an e-mail device (which is Job #1) but it sucks balls as a smartphone.

So it was with hope and trepidation and read that article – on the release of the new Blackberry 10 slated for early next year. Did they get it right? or will it be yet another piece of shit that does e-mail very, very well? – I don’t know but I’m willing to give it a try

Since this is IBC the Mother of all Stock sites, I should mention RIMM as an investment, or maybe more accurately a trade. There’s going to be buzz about BB10, and add in the rumors of IBM or amazon acquiring the enterprise services group .

It’s currently a dollar (14%) off it’s 52 week / 3 yr. low at $7.56. and the overhead supply of money losers is staggering. On the flip side, 18% of the float is short so if BB10 actually is something I could see a nice squeeze developing quickly.

First things first  it would have to bust through that 17 week EMA and it’s acted as a ceiling throughout the entire 15 month avalanche that saw it shed 90% of it’s value

 

 

 

Leaked – iphone 5 photos

864 views

from the macrumors website – photos of the i 5 phone / logic board – Expected release date of Sept. 12

The photos appear to be the front and back of the next generation iPhone logic board which houses the processor and other support chips for the device.  The board is distinct from both the Apple’s iPhone 4S and iPhone 4 logic boards.

 

 

Nowhereelse notes that the screw holes of the logic board lines up exactly with those of the previously leaked shells  The site even created this animated GIF which shows how the holes line up.  The image appears to be mirrored, presumably for clarity.

 

How much is a brand worth? Infographic AAPL, DIS, NKE, MCD, KO

617 views

After IKEA estimated and sold its trademark at $9 billion Euros (US$11 billion), The Wall Street Journal decided to find out the worth of some of the world’s most popular brands.

For the infographic entitled ‘What’s a Brand’s Worth?’, created by Alberto Cervantes, The Wall Street Journal looked to research firms to find out the worth of companies, such as Apple, IKEA, McDonald’s and Nike.

According to research firm Millward Brown the most valuable brand in the world is Apple Inc., with a worth of US$183 billion.

However, Interbrand judges Apple’s brand worth to be only US$33.5 billion—and that Coca-Cola Co. and McDonald’s are worth more at US$71.9 billion and US$35.6 billion respectively.

The firms disagreed less on the value of IKEA and Nike—Interbrand valued IKEA at US$11.9 billion and Nike at US$14.5 billion, while Millward Brown valued IKEA at US$9.2 billion and Nike at US$16.3 billion.

Which is more accurate? That depends on the branding firm. Different firms use different methods are used to come up with values of the companies.

Allen Adamson, a managing director of a branding firm owned by WPP, Landor Associates, told The Wall Street Journal that the value of brand is both art and science.

He said: “It’s simple in theory but hard to pin down in reality. It’s really about how much would a consumer pay for a caramel-colored soda versus how much they would pay for a Coke.”

Are the Transports ready to Rally? – $TRAN Chart

6
1,264 views

 

 

 

 

 

One of the indicators most of the Bears fall back on to shit on the current uptrend id the lack of participation by the Transports

Looking at a weekly view of the one year $TRAN chart it appears to be basing near it’s pivot point at 4866. It’s acted as very solid support, save for the breech at the June 4 lows

 

With the Ryan announcement as Romney’s VP – Will markets rally Monday?

6
425 views

 

 

 

 

Obviously Mitt made this choice to energize a rather lackluster GOP constituency who seem to have “settled” on his candidacy as “Not Obama”

Ryan, known for slashing budgets, could be just the thing to ignite a rally Monday – if the markets think he can help push the GOP over the top in November.

Opinions?

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