Short of the day

71 views

 

VVUS Pharmaceuticals – their claim to fame has been a much hyped wight loss drug Qsvia.

Too bad it was just rejected for sale  Europe

5:31PM Vivus receives formal decision from CHMP: the CHMP recommended against approval of Qsiva as expected (VVUS) 21.06 -1.24 : Co announced that is has received the formal opinion from the European Medicines Agency’s (EMA) Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) following their October 15-18 meeting. As expected, the CHMP recommended against approval of the Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) for Qsiva (phentermine/topiramate ER) for the treatment of obesity in the European Union. The reasons for their decision were due to concerns over the potential cardiovascular and central nervous system effects associated with long-term use, teratogenic potential and use by patients for whom Qsiva is not indicated. The company currently intends to appeal this opinion and request a re-examination of the decision by the CHMP. “The lack of effective pharmacologic treatments for obesity remains a high medical need for many patients in Europe,” stated Peter Tam, VIVUS’ president. “We are committed to getting Qsiva approved in Europe and will work closely with the new rapporteur and co-rapporteur to make this happen.”

In after hours trading the stock is down to $20.55 on the bid / $20.95 on the ask.  This is after declining 5.5% ($1.24) today

Looking at the chart you can see they are  headed back to the pivot tomorrow and in high probablilty the recent swing low at $17.21. If that happens to break – it’s a long way down to fill the gap

 

RIMM Buyout Rumors – New Blackberry 10 / Dead Money or Comeback Kid? Chart

364 views

 

I’ve carried a blackberry for 12 years.

Why?

 

First off it was the phone my previous company told us we had to use when we entered the email age in the late 90s (yea we were a little slow rolling out technology).

But now I work for a different company and for the last 5 years I’ve still carried one because of all the other PDA/ Smart phones I’ve ever tried, it’s the only one that I can bang out a 3 sentence e-mail on in less than 5 minutes. That’s important to me and the 80 million other people still carrying blackberries around the world ( at least that’s what RIMM says the user base is in this article)

And the reason I can actually type a message on a berry is the ingenious little QWERTY pad that they invented and perfected. (If you ever wondered why it’s called a QWERTY just read the top row of letters on the berry or your keyboard). I’ve tried Apple and Android (Samsung and HTC) touch screens but never felt close to being able to work it like that stupid little keyboard. It’s why I have a love hate relationship with my Berry – I love it as an e-mail device (which is Job #1) but it sucks balls as a smartphone.

So it was with hope and trepidation and read that article – on the release of the new Blackberry 10 slated for early next year. Did they get it right? or will it be yet another piece of shit that does e-mail very, very well? – I don’t know but I’m willing to give it a try

Since this is IBC the Mother of all Stock sites, I should mention RIMM as an investment, or maybe more accurately a trade. There’s going to be buzz about BB10, and add in the rumors of IBM or amazon acquiring the enterprise services group .

It’s currently a dollar (14%) off it’s 52 week / 3 yr. low at $7.56. and the overhead supply of money losers is staggering. On the flip side, 18% of the float is short so if BB10 actually is something I could see a nice squeeze developing quickly.

First things first  it would have to bust through that 17 week EMA and it’s acted as a ceiling throughout the entire 15 month avalanche that saw it shed 90% of it’s value

 

 

 

Are the Transports ready to Rally? – $TRAN Chart

234 views

 

 

 

 

 

One of the indicators most of the Bears fall back on to shit on the current uptrend id the lack of participation by the Transports

Looking at a weekly view of the one year $TRAN chart it appears to be basing near it’s pivot point at 4866. It’s acted as very solid support, save for the breech at the June 4 lows

 

ADP & PAYX – with employment increasing let’s look at payroll processing firms

152 views

Job numbers came in at 163,000 for July, slightly less than the 172,000 jobs added in June. An improving job market is a positive sign for payroll processing firms so lets take a look at the results of the two biggest players:

Automatic Data Processing  (ADP) Q4 revenues grew 5.2% over the year to $2.64 billion, marginally shy of the Street’s projections of $2.65 billion. EPS of $0.53 was in line with the market’s targeted EPS and reported growth over previous year’s earnings of $0.48 for the quarter.

By segment, Employer Services’ revenues grew 7% over the year to $1.88 billion, with the number of employees whose payrolls were processed by ADP in the U.S. rising 3.2% over the year. During the quarter, ADP bought back 6.4 million shares of its stock at a cost of $342 million.

ADP ended the year with revenues growing 8% over the year to $10.67 billion and EPS of $2.82. For the year 2013, the company projects revenues and earnings to grow 5%-7% over the year. The market is looking for 8% growth on revenues and 9% growth on earnings.

ADP remains focused on small and medium businesses and continued to expand service offerings for this segment. Recently, the company announced an integration with online accounting software provider, Xero. Through the tie-up, Xero’s general ledger solution will be integrated with ADP’s RUN Powered by ADP payroll platform. ADP’s RUN is a cloud-based solution that delivers compliance tools for payroll, tax administration, and employee management.

The integrated solution is tailored to small business owners. Xero provides SMB owners with real-time visibility into their financial positions. The solution also helps online collaboration with clients, virtual teams, and prospects for accounting professionals. The integration will enable both businesses and accounting professionals to transfer data in a simple and secure manner to Xero’s cloud-based software.

The stock is trading at $57.61 with a market capitalization of $27.99billion. The stock provides a $1.58 dividend = 2.8%. The chart shows ADP pulling back slightly from it’s 52 week high but still in strong uptrend

Paychex (PAYX)  Q4 revenues grew 6% over the year to $551.5 million, short of the Street’s projections of $558.0 million. EPS of $0.34 was in line with market expectations and grew 4% over the year.

By segment, payroll service revenues grew 4% to $369.5 million and Human Resource Services revenues grew 12% to $171.2 million.

The company ended the year with revenues up 7% over the year to $2.19 billion and EPS up 6% to $1.51. For the current year, Paychex expects payroll revenues to grow from 3%-4%, just shy of the market’s projected growth of 4.5%.

As part of its expanding product offerings, Paychex recently released a smartphone app for its solutions. The smartphone app for iPhone, Android, and BlackBerry will offer clients and clients’ employees a tool to stay connected to their Paychex payroll, benefits, and retirement information.

Paychex’s closed Friday near it’s one year highs – $33.18, with a market capitalization of $12.04 billion. The stock provides a $1.28 dividend = 3.9% The Chart continues to show a strong uptrend:

 

 

Apple Customer Demographic Shift – Pandering Commercials Target 35+

2,246 views

According to Brandindex – since mid-July 2011, Apple’s biggest supporters are consumers 35 years and older. Meanwhile, the younger age group of 18 to 34 — once the demographic most smitten with Apple — has trended downward. This reverses the positions of the two age groups before last July.

From early 2008 through mid-July 2011, Apple scored higher with the 18- 34 demographic but this group no longer constitutes Apple’s biggest banner wavers. There is another group, which may just need a “Genius” to help with their Apple products, as the new commercials imply.

Apple ran the ads, which featured a “Genius”  helping customers in high-pressure situations. The spots touted the Mac and appeared during the early days of NBC’s broadcast of the 2012 Olympics. They were discontinued within several days. The reaction among the Apple faithful was devastating:

“I honestly can’t remember a single Apple campaign that’s been received so poorly,” said Ken Segall, whose LinkedIn profile says he worked as the creative director for ad firm Chiat/Day and on that firm’s 1997-2002 “Think Different” campaign for Apple.

“These ads are causing a widespread gagging response, and deservedly so. This thing is so upsetting, it has me talking to myself,” said Segall in a post to his personal blog last week.

Judge for yourself – Here’s the Apple spots featuring 24-year-old comedian Josh Rabinowitz:

 

Rationalizations of Bulls & Bears

58 views

Read a very entertaining thread at Tradertalk. It started out about sentiment but evolved (disintegrated?) into  rationalizations.

The crux of it is whenever a trader is on the wrong side of the charts… ..there must be a reason.

The Bear Rationalization:  Rallies are a result of Fed, ECB, QE, POMO, Repo, Twist, Dollar debasement, Goldman. Any temporary down-drafts in the markets are heralded as the return of free markets and vindication of old school TA, only to followed by cries of manipulation when the reversal occurs. Even on a technical basis most rallies are either on fumes, breadth not confirming, volume MCO lagging, VIX too low, too much complacency, overextended/parabolic, divergent, dangerously topping, three peaks and domed house, hindenburg omen, imminent pole flip, dangerous planetary combinations, et al. And when the technicals are too strong, the fundamentals which are in a perpetual gutter, are always there to help. So there is always a reason to suspect any up move in the markets

The Bull Rationalization: blaming the Fed or the ECB for not doing enough when there are major sell offs or crashes. There’s Naked shorting and no regulations and it’s all a rigged game by the big boyz. And, we can also throw in excuses like the “Fat Finger” and computer glitches and flash crashes.  All sell offs are buying opportunities because there’s a lot of money on the sideline, stocks are cheap, it’s a market of stocks, I’m a long term investor, and the return on T-bills won’t beat inflation.

A really good trader named Jess Livermore once said “when the facts change, I change my mind”

Sage advice indeud

Simple Trading Plan – Short SSO – Chart

211 views

 

 

 

 

$SPX via SSO has been moving in a very defined channel since the June 4 bottom.

A very simple trade – Short SSO – stop at $57.84 channel breakout

Target:  Approx $53.30 area bottom of Bolinger band / channel

Short of the day

71 views

 

VVUS Pharmaceuticals – their claim to fame has been a much hyped wight loss drug Qsvia.

Too bad it was just rejected for sale  Europe

5:31PM Vivus receives formal decision from CHMP: the CHMP recommended against approval of Qsiva as expected (VVUS) 21.06 -1.24 : Co announced that is has received the formal opinion from the European Medicines Agency’s (EMA) Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) following their October 15-18 meeting. As expected, the CHMP recommended against approval of the Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) for Qsiva (phentermine/topiramate ER) for the treatment of obesity in the European Union. The reasons for their decision were due to concerns over the potential cardiovascular and central nervous system effects associated with long-term use, teratogenic potential and use by patients for whom Qsiva is not indicated. The company currently intends to appeal this opinion and request a re-examination of the decision by the CHMP. “The lack of effective pharmacologic treatments for obesity remains a high medical need for many patients in Europe,” stated Peter Tam, VIVUS’ president. “We are committed to getting Qsiva approved in Europe and will work closely with the new rapporteur and co-rapporteur to make this happen.”

In after hours trading the stock is down to $20.55 on the bid / $20.95 on the ask.  This is after declining 5.5% ($1.24) today

Looking at the chart you can see they are  headed back to the pivot tomorrow and in high probablilty the recent swing low at $17.21. If that happens to break – it’s a long way down to fill the gap

 

RIMM Buyout Rumors – New Blackberry 10 / Dead Money or Comeback Kid? Chart

364 views

 

I’ve carried a blackberry for 12 years.

Why?

 

First off it was the phone my previous company told us we had to use when we entered the email age in the late 90s (yea we were a little slow rolling out technology).

But now I work for a different company and for the last 5 years I’ve still carried one because of all the other PDA/ Smart phones I’ve ever tried, it’s the only one that I can bang out a 3 sentence e-mail on in less than 5 minutes. That’s important to me and the 80 million other people still carrying blackberries around the world ( at least that’s what RIMM says the user base is in this article)

And the reason I can actually type a message on a berry is the ingenious little QWERTY pad that they invented and perfected. (If you ever wondered why it’s called a QWERTY just read the top row of letters on the berry or your keyboard). I’ve tried Apple and Android (Samsung and HTC) touch screens but never felt close to being able to work it like that stupid little keyboard. It’s why I have a love hate relationship with my Berry – I love it as an e-mail device (which is Job #1) but it sucks balls as a smartphone.

So it was with hope and trepidation and read that article – on the release of the new Blackberry 10 slated for early next year. Did they get it right? or will it be yet another piece of shit that does e-mail very, very well? – I don’t know but I’m willing to give it a try

Since this is IBC the Mother of all Stock sites, I should mention RIMM as an investment, or maybe more accurately a trade. There’s going to be buzz about BB10, and add in the rumors of IBM or amazon acquiring the enterprise services group .

It’s currently a dollar (14%) off it’s 52 week / 3 yr. low at $7.56. and the overhead supply of money losers is staggering. On the flip side, 18% of the float is short so if BB10 actually is something I could see a nice squeeze developing quickly.

First things first  it would have to bust through that 17 week EMA and it’s acted as a ceiling throughout the entire 15 month avalanche that saw it shed 90% of it’s value

 

 

 

Are the Transports ready to Rally? – $TRAN Chart

234 views

 

 

 

 

 

One of the indicators most of the Bears fall back on to shit on the current uptrend id the lack of participation by the Transports

Looking at a weekly view of the one year $TRAN chart it appears to be basing near it’s pivot point at 4866. It’s acted as very solid support, save for the breech at the June 4 lows

 

ADP & PAYX – with employment increasing let’s look at payroll processing firms

152 views

Job numbers came in at 163,000 for July, slightly less than the 172,000 jobs added in June. An improving job market is a positive sign for payroll processing firms so lets take a look at the results of the two biggest players:

Automatic Data Processing  (ADP) Q4 revenues grew 5.2% over the year to $2.64 billion, marginally shy of the Street’s projections of $2.65 billion. EPS of $0.53 was in line with the market’s targeted EPS and reported growth over previous year’s earnings of $0.48 for the quarter.

By segment, Employer Services’ revenues grew 7% over the year to $1.88 billion, with the number of employees whose payrolls were processed by ADP in the U.S. rising 3.2% over the year. During the quarter, ADP bought back 6.4 million shares of its stock at a cost of $342 million.

ADP ended the year with revenues growing 8% over the year to $10.67 billion and EPS of $2.82. For the year 2013, the company projects revenues and earnings to grow 5%-7% over the year. The market is looking for 8% growth on revenues and 9% growth on earnings.

ADP remains focused on small and medium businesses and continued to expand service offerings for this segment. Recently, the company announced an integration with online accounting software provider, Xero. Through the tie-up, Xero’s general ledger solution will be integrated with ADP’s RUN Powered by ADP payroll platform. ADP’s RUN is a cloud-based solution that delivers compliance tools for payroll, tax administration, and employee management.

The integrated solution is tailored to small business owners. Xero provides SMB owners with real-time visibility into their financial positions. The solution also helps online collaboration with clients, virtual teams, and prospects for accounting professionals. The integration will enable both businesses and accounting professionals to transfer data in a simple and secure manner to Xero’s cloud-based software.

The stock is trading at $57.61 with a market capitalization of $27.99billion. The stock provides a $1.58 dividend = 2.8%. The chart shows ADP pulling back slightly from it’s 52 week high but still in strong uptrend

Paychex (PAYX)  Q4 revenues grew 6% over the year to $551.5 million, short of the Street’s projections of $558.0 million. EPS of $0.34 was in line with market expectations and grew 4% over the year.

By segment, payroll service revenues grew 4% to $369.5 million and Human Resource Services revenues grew 12% to $171.2 million.

The company ended the year with revenues up 7% over the year to $2.19 billion and EPS up 6% to $1.51. For the current year, Paychex expects payroll revenues to grow from 3%-4%, just shy of the market’s projected growth of 4.5%.

As part of its expanding product offerings, Paychex recently released a smartphone app for its solutions. The smartphone app for iPhone, Android, and BlackBerry will offer clients and clients’ employees a tool to stay connected to their Paychex payroll, benefits, and retirement information.

Paychex’s closed Friday near it’s one year highs – $33.18, with a market capitalization of $12.04 billion. The stock provides a $1.28 dividend = 3.9% The Chart continues to show a strong uptrend:

 

 

Apple Customer Demographic Shift – Pandering Commercials Target 35+

2,246 views

According to Brandindex – since mid-July 2011, Apple’s biggest supporters are consumers 35 years and older. Meanwhile, the younger age group of 18 to 34 — once the demographic most smitten with Apple — has trended downward. This reverses the positions of the two age groups before last July.

From early 2008 through mid-July 2011, Apple scored higher with the 18- 34 demographic but this group no longer constitutes Apple’s biggest banner wavers. There is another group, which may just need a “Genius” to help with their Apple products, as the new commercials imply.

Apple ran the ads, which featured a “Genius”  helping customers in high-pressure situations. The spots touted the Mac and appeared during the early days of NBC’s broadcast of the 2012 Olympics. They were discontinued within several days. The reaction among the Apple faithful was devastating:

“I honestly can’t remember a single Apple campaign that’s been received so poorly,” said Ken Segall, whose LinkedIn profile says he worked as the creative director for ad firm Chiat/Day and on that firm’s 1997-2002 “Think Different” campaign for Apple.

“These ads are causing a widespread gagging response, and deservedly so. This thing is so upsetting, it has me talking to myself,” said Segall in a post to his personal blog last week.

Judge for yourself – Here’s the Apple spots featuring 24-year-old comedian Josh Rabinowitz:

 

Rationalizations of Bulls & Bears

58 views

Read a very entertaining thread at Tradertalk. It started out about sentiment but evolved (disintegrated?) into  rationalizations.

The crux of it is whenever a trader is on the wrong side of the charts… ..there must be a reason.

The Bear Rationalization:  Rallies are a result of Fed, ECB, QE, POMO, Repo, Twist, Dollar debasement, Goldman. Any temporary down-drafts in the markets are heralded as the return of free markets and vindication of old school TA, only to followed by cries of manipulation when the reversal occurs. Even on a technical basis most rallies are either on fumes, breadth not confirming, volume MCO lagging, VIX too low, too much complacency, overextended/parabolic, divergent, dangerously topping, three peaks and domed house, hindenburg omen, imminent pole flip, dangerous planetary combinations, et al. And when the technicals are too strong, the fundamentals which are in a perpetual gutter, are always there to help. So there is always a reason to suspect any up move in the markets

The Bull Rationalization: blaming the Fed or the ECB for not doing enough when there are major sell offs or crashes. There’s Naked shorting and no regulations and it’s all a rigged game by the big boyz. And, we can also throw in excuses like the “Fat Finger” and computer glitches and flash crashes.  All sell offs are buying opportunities because there’s a lot of money on the sideline, stocks are cheap, it’s a market of stocks, I’m a long term investor, and the return on T-bills won’t beat inflation.

A really good trader named Jess Livermore once said “when the facts change, I change my mind”

Sage advice indeud

$SPX – S&P500 – CCI Showing a Top Approaching

134 views

 

 

 

First, thanks to Selecto at Trader Talk, for the chart used in this post.

For those not familiar with the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) – read this

Selecto has been tracking $SPX with the CCI in this chart and it has been extremely accurate since May.

Another overbought hasn’t triggered yet, but it looks like it’s getting close

Simple Trading Plan – Short SSO – Chart

211 views

 

 

 

 

$SPX via SSO has been moving in a very defined channel since the June 4 bottom.

A very simple trade – Short SSO – stop at $57.84 channel breakout

Target:  Approx $53.30 area bottom of Bolinger band / channel

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