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Everything’s breaking gizzards these days except [[TLT]] , so why not get exceptionally “outre”  in your picking and “dabble in the exotics” as they say down in Derby Land? 

By “exotics” I don’t mean trifectas and daily doubles, but rather palladium and land banks in the form of [[PAL]] and The St. Joe Company [[JOE]] , respectively.

Truthfully, these aren’t exotic at all, and are ony further reflection of the deranged printing press inclinations of Sir Ben of Bern-yankee.  Why do you fight the Fed?  Why do you do it?  Rather, you should be buying palladium dogs like Stillwater Mining Company [[SWC]] and investing in Florida real estate that won’t be developed until the Baby Boomers are all safely in their crypts.

No worries, they are breaking out, and that’s all that matters in the end, no?  Come see [[PAL]] and then Joey.

 

Then there’s Mr. The St. Joe Company [[JOE]] , who’s really punched the number after breaking out of that long term downtrend line I pointed out a few weeks back.  How may of you took advantage?   Propitious that this is the season of Doubting Thomas, no?  

Here’s the line — “hard assets are moving again,” because the currency is dropping out of sight.   If [[UUP]] continues to drop, these are two more weapons for your bag.    Keep them secret, keep them safe.

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PS — Don’t forget about Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] and Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] even though I sold some of my exposure in these the other day.   These are “put away for the long term” stocks (especially CREE, which is best in class).  Same goes for recently beaten upon Monsanto Company [[MON]] .    Take this hammering in stride and nibble vociferously.  Long term, there’s no one who can match their IP assets.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okHGCz6xxiw 450 300]

Maggie Lays It Out for You

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I think it fitting that I spent most of the day away from you, gentle reader, in a room full of bored and cored, screw-tapped and dew-lapped copper, titanium  and aluminum gew gaws.

What better way, after all, to celebrate the next emerging bubble in basic and precious metals than to revel in the presence of those commodities end-products?  And here’s what’s crazy… despite the high prices of these manufacturing inputs, the companies that produce highly machined components from these sources are getting TOP dollar right now, less than 13 months from a near Armegeddon bottom in March of 2009.

Imagine that, huh?  One would think there’s the scent of easy money in the air.

I still think we’re in for a pullback and maybe it’s this week or the next, but it’s coming, because we have to reset some of these overbought conditions.  It won’t be much though, I shouldn’t think, and I have three pullback plays just itching to be triggered on any moderate pullbacks.

The first is from the aforesaid metals group, and a past holding of mine.   I held RTI International Metals, Inc. [[RTI]] back when it was around $11-$12.  I believe I sold around $15, much to my chagrin:

Note that I don’t think this commodity leaper will pull back much.  Perhaps to the top of the consolidation zone at $31 or so.

Next, two old friends.  The first is one of my oldest and longest term holdings.   I’ve said in the past that I think United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] leads the trannies, and so leads the market.  Recently, that theory has held up.   UPS is looking like it needs to form a pullback “handle” here, in order to consolidate and take off again.   You can see my target:

You can see that even on the weekly, she looks rather overbought.   A pullback to $62, at least, is in the cards on this one, I beleive.

Last I offer an old friend that was originally brought to us by our oldest of friends.   I’ve owned some a while and not looked at it for some time.   Well, it looks like [[ENTR]] is prepping for big things at last.

Viva la Cable Box Revolucion!  

Be well, all, and keep an eye on [[UUP]] for further signs of a commodity revolution.

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UPDATE:  This Rocks, and it will also educate your kids.  What more can you ask for?

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk&feature=fvw 450 300]

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It’s nice to have gotten into the Final Four here of the famed iBC Tourney this year, but I am almost remorseful to have taken that golden bone away from such a weurthy opponent as “Kreppa Nu,” a proud member of The PPT, and a strong stock picker in his own right.

And just to show how much these contests rely upon the whim of a day’s timing, look how his champion SanDisk Corporation [[SNDK]] rose from the ashes today.   

I told you SNDK was a good pick, and only a matter of time before it re-coiled itself and was ready to take off again.   I want to thank my friend for pointing this one out for me.   I think it’s got legs, no matter what the governmental gnomes can throw at us in the coming weeks.

As for the rest of the market, I’m not so sure.  Today, we were saved by a weakening dollar — [[UUP]] — there’s no getting around it.    The balance we have to strike right now is an increasingly ugly fiscal scenario versus a madman at the printing presses, trying to keep all the balls floating for as long as possible.

To say I’m pessimistic might be understating things, but I’m not going to flush my positions until I see the whites of the enemies’ eyes.   Right now, the [[DJT]] and the harbinger United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] are still in breakout patterns.  

Until I see a breakdown out of those pullbacks, I’m staying long, though not necessarily “strong.” Watching gold for a break of $1,100 as well.

Best to you, my sons and daughters of Barack.

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Update: Let’s see what’s actually in this sucker they passed yesterday. Enjoy!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rw5g9K2dFKM 450 300] _________

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Diiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiieeeeeeeeee!!!
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Forget about your regular run of the mill “Denningerite-Goldman Sachs” conspiracies, I think there are heavier machinations afoot.  

Let’s take this Old Dominion win over the weurthies (sic) at Golden Domer Land ( that’s “Notre Dame” to you foreign debils).  Obviously someone has spiked the Gatorade in the Southern bracket, as fellow Big East weurthy Villanova needed overtime to dispatch that grab-bag of hirsute and unlaundered ruffians from Robert Morris University (I believe they are the largest providers of “Executive Assistants” in the Western hemisphere).  

No one needs to sniff around long to realize this is all just another  “pad the Duke run” conspiracy, no doubt cooked up by the seminal communist claque at CBS Sports and the villainous Koach Kryszistikanmstlplx of the Permanantly Punched-off Mustachio Society.

As a result of my suspicions, I fear greatly for my Louisville Cardinals, who will play the Bezerkley Cal Bears tomorrow night in their respective Tournament tip off game.   In fact, I have even warned them– via multiple flash texting– to beware the laudanum crystals that will no doubt be sprinkled upon their Soup & Salisbury Steak pre-game meals.    

This would be no coincidence, mind you, as their next opponent is the hated Duke Blue Devils, should both teams advance to the round of 32.   And while the Pukies (sic) are already the beneficiaries of an ill-gained #1 Seed, they will likely take every nefarious precaution short of chain-sawing off the legs of their next opponents and calling it a “freak escalator mishap.”  (And only because they did that last year and don’t want to risk the usual “too coincidental” inquiry). 

I am hoping of course that there is a God in the Heavens who will caffeinate Duke primary opponent Arkansas Pine Bluff’s Cocoa Puffs tomorrow morning and make them the first #16 seed to knock off a #1 in T0urnament history.    The hated Blue Devils are well deserving of the honour (sic).

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In stock land, it looks like I got out of the rest of those June $11 Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] calls just in time last night ($5.45) , as it seems stocks are finally going to head into a cycle low here, with the PM miners leading the charge.     Of course I kept 30 of the original 240, just for “esses and geegles.”    I also got rid of the final 60 June $40 [[GDX]] calls at $7.55 this morning as well.

Last, I dumped another 1,000 shs of [[AGQ]] at $57.94 at the open this morning.  I retain a final 1,000 shares out of the original 4k. 

I also dumped 8k of the Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] at @ $2.19  with my thanks and a promised steak dinner to brother “Rage in the Cage” , who put me onto this neat little fiduciary a couple of weeks back.  I retain 12k shares for the “free cash money” heck of it.

One last peculiarity I will point out, and take it as you will…

 Despite the pullback in PM stocks, the price of gold has held rather well, and the dollar can only hiccup higher over Grecian death rattling ( [[uup]] up about 17 cent today).   Note also, however, that the “King of the Transports,” a.k.a., “The Mighty Big Brown,” United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] is enjoying a renaissance in price movement it has not seen since before the 2008 “Year of Black Ddeath.”  

Charles Dow calls out to you from the grave, citizens… will ye listen?

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UPDATE:  GO YE MURRAY STATE RACERS!!   Beat those South’n Commodore Vanderbilt Goofs!

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfINBYmGD1A 450 300]

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I don’t often talk about the University of Kentucky on this site, being a “mostly” Louisville Cardinals fan (and they don’t like it much around here when you’re “both.”  You might as like to try to “borry” from a man’s still instead).   However, UK freshman, SEC “Player of the Year,” “Newcomer of the Year,” and quite possibly #1 NBA draft pick John Wall makes for a nice metaphor for today’s dollar discussion.

Wall, while deified in the Blue Grass for his eye-popping offensive talents, is going to be the number one (or #2, his teammate DeMarcus Cousins may go #1) draft pick because of his defensive capabilities, which are sometimes similarly eye-popping.   It’s arguable, for instance, that he beat Vanderbilt at Vanderbilt all by himself with a last second shot block on a dead-eye three-point shooter, followed by a clean pick of the ball right from said startled shooter’s hands.  

What’s that?  Of course Youtube has the clip!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZzXhhd6CRA 450 300]

Pretty spiffy, no?   You don’t see that kind of instinctive defensive thinking in a lot of freshman.

And that kind of defensive, er… “wall” brings to mind our old weekly dollar chart and the “fib wall” we’d identified as going to be a tough area to breach.   It turns out, the 200-week exponential moving average (“EMA”) served as a barrier as well.   Look at the slow topping we’ve seen here, keeping in mind this is a weekly chart:

I think this bodes well, at least in the near term, for our commodities “risk trade,” and especially the precious metals, which are perking up quite nicely this morning as the dollar (DXY) drops below $80.00.    [[AGQ]] is taking all it’s friends out for a champagne party, and purchasing them Norma Kamali handbags.   Fellow silvers [[EXK]] , [[CDE]] and even rag-tag Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] are also again off to the races.  As always, the best name in silver is Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] .  On the gold side, you know my favourites (sic) but NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] is really picking up steam as it matures here.

Keep an eye as well on our dollar proxy [[UUP]] , which we’d like to see stay below $23.60 for our shiny metal dominance to continue.

On top of our usual metal trades, it seems that the regional banks [[KRE]] are also back on thier horses.  You know I love BB&T Corporation BB&T Corporation [[BBT]] as a long term hold, but don’t be afraid to grab a little Fifth Third Bancorp [[FITB]] and Huntington Bancshares Incorporated [[HBAN]] here as these “Ohio chancres” will someday soon be able to cover up their cold sores and sashay out into the bank M&A saloons once again, all a-flooze.

Last, don’t forget about Elite Eight  pick Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] which is still getting its wind back (thankfully, so is SanDisk Corporation [[SNDK]] ) and it’s sister Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] , which has really been gaining some nice ground recently.   I like both as hedges against future “Inflato-rama Drama.”

My best to you all.

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“More than any time in history mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray that we have the wisdom to choose correctly.” — Allan Stewart Konigsberg
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Woody Allen once said “80% of success is just showing up.” To some extent that’s true, as reliability is an attribute valued across a wide spectrum of employers, friends, relatives, lovers, etc.

Why do you think [[MCD]] sells so many Happy Meals? Because their burgers are made of some top quality succulent sirloin? No, it’s because the little kid in us knows we are going to get the same overdone blandburger-and-salty-fry combination every time, and that’s comforting.

So too, the comfort of a trending market soothes the savage breast of the coked-out daytrader in all of us. But even a long term trending market is not without it’s harrowing pullbacks and trials of faith. For that we need perspective, humility, and in the end, endurance.

Endurance and a willingness to sit and wait for the trade to come to you are the key to the type of long term wealth accumulation we like to talk about here. Remember how scary gold looked a few weeks back, when we thought maybe the bull had finally tapped and the dollar was re-ascendant? Note how I said the 34-week had been a great place to buy in the past, despite the strength of the dollar? Look at the dollar gold chart I’d shown you a few weeks back:

As in the past, the 34 week Exponential Moving Average (“EMA”) has been a reliable signal in this uptrend (all but for the one dreadful period at the end of 2008, where the 200 wk EMA was the stopper).    Note in this next “nine year bull” chart how reliable the signal has been, and also, how it seems the “touches” are starting to get farther apart.  

 I’m not sure what to make of this “touch extension” business, but I will point out that as bull markets enter their parabolic stages, they tend to spend longer and longer periods above the common daily and weekly moving average “rest-stops”  (ie, 20, 50 and 200-day on the daily and 13, 34 and 200 week on the weeklies).  

I am of the mind that our hard earned endurance will pay off here, friends, and the dollar will soon break down again, and that should push our gold:dollar ration back over $14 again, to the great chagrin of metallic ursines the world over, but especially those on the upper Left Coast.     

For turnaround Toosdee (sic), I would expect further deterioration in [[UUP]] , and therefore highly recommend a late day grab of some Fronteer Development Group Inc. (USA) [[FRG]] , Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] and [[SVM]] .

I also believe Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] is almost done pulling back, and it should move above $70 this week, as the market continues to roll over wide-eyed, squatting Kodiaks.  As a consequence, Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] is also worth a look.

Best to you all, fellow Konigsbergs.

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