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Today was rough for me,raging metal bull that I am.   Despite all my sell downs, all my hedges, and all my short ETF’s, I was still up 1.3%today.  I could hardly believe my eyes when I looked at the end of the day.   But my pain is the deep distress of opportnuties lost.   I did a quick back of the envelope and realized that, had I had my full compliment on (i.e., the pre-January 2011 allocation), I would have been up some 4+% today.

So all I did all day was fret over the direction of the dollar.  As you are well aware, it continues to melt like a stick of bacon fat in a San Bernadino forest fire.  I keep thinking that the evil Bernanke buck has got to bounce soon, even if just for a little jaunt higher, so I can dispose of these cumbersome hedges and swing back into the market like Tarzan yelling for his elephant brethren. 

Luckily for me, around three o’clock today, I had other distractions to take my mind off the market, like a possible bluebird deal flying in my door from the lovely state of North Carolina, and– oh yeah —  Mrs. Jake calling to inform me she was in an auto accident.  I think this was maybe her (second? third?) intersection collision.  I really am starting to believe she thinks she’s driving a Bradley Fighting Vehicle instead of a well turned out Eddie Bauer Excursion.  Fortunately, this one’s getting a little long in the tooth anyway, and the minor damage she did is reparable.    Things will hold out until her birthday, I figure, and then I can surprise her with an IED-resistant Humvee or something in that “safe for all” category.  I believe my older sons will enjoy swinging the fifty cals back and forth in efficient cover arcs.

To get to it before it gets too late, I think we’re on the cusp, here.   We broke, if ever so slightly, the great bogey barriers of 12k on the Dow and 1,300 on the SPX.  That means we run like salmon for the fish barrell, or we mark a nice rounded top, whereafter we plunge into  deep despair. 

Well,  you at least.

[How could I ever despair, after all, when I’m working on my brand new laptop, with special “soopah secret” fingerprint scanning technology, so I can get into my blog-posting area and The PPT without ever uttering a single “Open Sesame?”   Aye, with only thelightest  swipe of a forefinger?  It’s a James Bond world we live in, I tell you, and I think my index print has been forwarded toErnst Blofeld for use in his underwater lair.]

Today, the whole enterprise of JakeGint Consolidated Commodities lies on the edge of a knife.   Will the dollar bounce, or continue to plummet?  Perhaps our chart from the other night can shed some light.   The following is pretty simple, either the dollar holds this line of defense, or it’s off to the races, at least for the PM hawgs and other such wolverines.  Attend to the trend:

Not dissimilarly, or coincidentally, silver is at the same juncture as the greenback, save opposite for effect.   If it continues to break out here, I will have no choice but to recommit, in large tusked porcine fashion, to all my silver longs once again.   The only thing I’ve bought recently has been SLW, and that was on a buy stop at $29.05.   If nothing else comes to Papa, then Papa may have to go to it.  Here’s your target:

  

You have your orders… carry on.

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And by the early sixties, so was the Lone Ranger
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Enjoy your frapjous day, and bank your daytrade capital returns, bottom callers, for you called the bounce correuctly (sic).   Silver was oversold today, and as a result, the metal enjoyed the slightest of rebounds along with gold (more muted) and even some of the larger cap market.  

Behold the egregious oversoldedness (sic) and note what my crystalline bawls tell me  of the future:

The odd thing is,  the crapulous dollar continued to struggle on, not quite selling off, but definitely not rising like the phoenix either.   It appears besides making soothing statements, Chairman Benjamin is loosing pillowcases of feathers upon this market, excoriating it to “Fly! Fly!”

Alas, a passel of loose feathers doth not make a winged bird, or even a flightless apteryx.   No, it looks like the dollar, too, is oversold, and perhaps seeking a final dip before strapping on it’s BAR for a slog back up the hill:

 And EXK was purchased today by some (though not by me)– a nice pickup at $5.40 if you got it there.  I think it could even go to $6.00-$6.20 on the second day of a bounce.  I will sell more of my stash there, if it gets to that point.   Silver stocks, too, will take on a familar sheen if the dollar rebounds here, as scheduled.    And while I felt comfortable today grabbing some of the much more oversold (and higher quality) SLW at $29.03-.05,  I still contend that  EXK must complete its journey:

Keep this intuition in mind:  one does not buy the metals happily after an egregious pullback.   Rather, one buys them grimacing, and with chitinous trepidation. 

When you feel that grippe, then let it rippe.

Be well.

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You See Kid, It’s All About the Proper ‘Stache
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Well, the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets lost… and many a friend, relative and associate is in mourning tonight.  I can almost feel their pain.  It’s tough to get so close to the Superbowl and then lose in a disjointed effort like that.  But the Jets should take heart, as they’ve a team to build on.   As well, the Steelers have indubitably the best defense in the league, and perhaps the best coach.  

 And let’s face it,  for the Jets to win a third playoff game on the road would be considered by some to be a near miracle.

I say “near,” because of course my own beloved Giants have performed that 3-Road Game Playoff Win feat, and topped even that by beating “the Unbeatable” New England Patriots.  You remember the Giselle Bundchen-related Patriots?  The team who had gone unbeaten in every game in the 2007 season…

Except the one that counted, I mean.  Heh.

No matter, the industrious Steelers pulled off the same carny trick the year after, albeit against a far inferior opponent.  Nevertheless, Mike Tomlin is great, Ben Roethlisberger is a loathesome pig, “Go Packers!”  and let’s move on…

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You want to know what I think the dollar is doing here?  I think it’s getting ready to rumble.  It’s been drip-sell, drip-sell, drip-sell for weeks now, and yet gold and silver have been pedaling in air, rather than soaring.   That means gold and silver, in their heavy, shiny brains know something.   This is what I think they know:

We might get a scrape below $78.00, but I think that’ll be the dog and the frog.  You’ll know the dollar is done diving because the market will crack like a ten week old egg left over from a third grade science project.  It’ll be smelly.  Are you prepared?

Everyone is asking me when I’m going to buy you-name-it– SLW, EXK, GDX, ANV, EGO etc., etc. 

Listen to me when I tell you that when its time to buy these things again, you will NOT want to do so.  Hear me?  Stop being so damn anxious and go have a clove cigarette and a warm paraffin foot bath or something.

In the meantime, here’s where I see EXK, you greedy little pigs, you:

Now remember that’s a weekly chart up there, so things will move slower than we’re used to seeing on the daily, and that distance to the buy is a site farther than it looks.  It might be three or four weeks from now.  So chill.

And here’s a bonus for you dynamite-strapped rocketeers out there.   If you try this, play it small because it’s wilder than boar hog afflicted with a case of cannibal crabs.  You see how much it was up on Friday?  Well don’t believe it.  This suckers going down just like it did last time.  Here’s my take:

That’s all for now.  Play tight and play defense this week.

Good luck to the Green Bay Packers, a real “good guy” team.  I might even root for Pittsburgh, but then, I have a daughter, soooo … no.

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The $HUI, he is glo-rious. 

The Fly, he is un-der the bus.

The Man, he is Chuck Nor-ius.

You’ll lose teeth if you

Neglect to floss.

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Be at peace if you have no gold

This might not be the time to hold

Y’see…

The oscillators all grow old

And all my calls have since been sold.

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Check the graph if you have the mind

To see the $HUI crescent’s very rind

That’s flashed to me the warning sign

To take my nuggets off the line,

Chunk my Barca-lounger…

lever, and… recline.

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Now, as a caveat, I’ll have you know

If the buck stays under the weekly low

Price at $80’s recent undertow–

Then I’ll be next to risk a throw

On Sainted Saxon Knight…

Lord Ivanhoe!

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Good day to you, sir!

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I’ve been in a frustration rage all night, dealing with a specific teacher from my kid’s new school.  I knew this clown was going to be trouble when we were ushered into his classroom on “Parent-Teacher Intro Night.”

First sign of a problem– his advanced (freshman) Biology classroom is festooned with Star Wars and Lord of the Rings paraphenalia.  It’s so chock-a-block with Lucasfilm and Tolkien goo-gaws that you get to mixing up your Yodas and your Gollums as your eye flits from poster to plasticine sculpture to quarter-scale Death Star diorama.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m as big a nostalgia geek as the next guy, but when a dude who is supposed to be in a position of authority starts taking on the trappings of his 14-year old charges in an “I’m gonna be your buddy, see?” fashion, my inner alarm-bells start ringing.

And of course this decorating style, along with his “wildly enthusiastic wide-eyed and energized” schtick is all just a big passive- aggressive foil. You see, he’s really been put on the planet to show all these AP-level kids how freaking lazy they’ve been all their lives and what a real boot-camp ass-kicking class is like, courtesy of his over-caffeinated, Napoleanic personality.  You see, they may all be going places, but this day, they’re his!

But that’s not the worst of it.  The worst is his bizarre insistence on using all these notoriously buggy “cloud computing” academic “aides” in order to process simple things like homework essays. 

So if have been stupid enough to encourage your kid to read books and play sports instead of staying in his roomand learning to dissasemble his PC (blindfolded),  guess who become the guinea pig in the great “figure out how this new-fangled 64-bit double-key encrypted 16 password entry bullshit works” process?

Hint — it’s not dear old Mom.

So here I am writing my post at post-midnight because I spent much of the evening visiting 53 separate websites and checking nine different on-line syllabus entries to find the proper “log-in information” so my son could submit his quotidian two page homework essay “the modern way.”

In case you were wondering (I know you are lock-jawed asleep right now),  that way was “late” — as we didn’t get it into the bullshit cloud computing thingamijig (it allegedly checks for plagiarization, spooky, no?) until after the 10 pm deadline.

So I just e-mailed the damn paper to the geeky homunculus, 1998-style.  I am hoping he bitches me out about it.  Look for the results in the local paper, “Violent Crimes, unsolved” — section.

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The Dollar is down below $81, as forewarned, thanks to Ben doing as much cocaine as my son’s Bio teacher, and now the buck looks headed for the “neckline” of a pretty dismal head and shoulders pattern.  More important to me than that (imho) bogus pattern is the return to the 38.2% fibonacci level after bouncing off it once already and not quite making it all the way to the 61.8% only to feel the tug of gravity all over again.

This second return may force the break we’ve been talking about, or it may simply be grounds for another bounce. Because of the relative overbot nature of my silver and gold plays, I’m hedging right now for the latter, but I will not rule out the former. Check the dollar weekly (weakly?) one more time and see if you can see a near term return to the $77-78 level in its future:

Yours in the fight against overzealous teacher-tyranny,

Jake.

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Don’t dare ask me about the dollar, small pleb!
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Quickly, quickly now, as the spice melange takes maximum hold…  I shall reveal the revelations of the spice dreams as controlled by special Bene Gesserit training taught exclusively to me by Madonna.

First, I reiterate, with cement-like, no…concrete-like certainty, the devolution of this market will be marked by the application of much spice melange to my upper respiratory tract, especially my nostrils, where it is most tasty and vision-producing.

I envision our dollar to be entering some significant retrace territory on the weekly chart here, and soon, trouble:

As you can see, we are not yet oversold on the weekly (we should not be as we bottomed a mere two weeks back), but we are approaching some significant Fibonacci retrace levels at 61.8% of the latest large drop from the March to December ’09 period.

Not coincidentally, that huge dollar drop brought us our relief market.   Now I think she gets ready to drop once again, as the dollar “recovery” continues to weaken at the firm but effeminate hands of Ben Bernanke.

The dollar daily is even more immediate:

As you will note, on the daily, the Gom Jabbar  lies even closer to the neck of the weakling dollar, as it is overbought already after a mere 11 days since it’s last bottom-scrape.    A mere word will bring it to it’s knees, and I think that word is “Fibonacci.”

Or it could be “black candle,” even though that’s two words, technically.

No matter, gold held fast today, and as I commented to M. Le Docteur earlier today, whenever gold and the dollar rise simultaneously, it usually means one of them is about to break.   Today, the dollar blinked first but recovered.   The rest of the week should tell our tale.

In the meantime, gold and silver miners may continue to consolidate here.  While you are eating that sandwich and waiting for them to break out once again, take a gander at ANDE, the old Jacksonian agricultural stalwart.   I expect MON to recover here with the rest of the ags as well.

May the great red beard and moustaches of Frank Herbert bless you all, and good night!

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