[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSwJlv0Bljg 450 300]

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Let’s not forget what it’s all about, okay?

What’s that? You forgot?

It’s all about “Quantitive Easing,” the jim-fuggery way of saying, “printing zeroes, lots of ’em, to get us outta this perma-jam til we think of somethin’ better!”

Know this now and forever, however:

There is no Recovery Only Zuul, and Zuul is cents on the dollar, which is going to turn back to its old ways here, soon enough. Or sooner. Look where we are on the monthly which gives a nice ten year plus eyeful:

 That  38.2% fibonacci retrace line illustrated above is a Golden Ratio line — one of the strongest (along with it’s inverse 61.8%) in the psychologically uncanny mathematical metric .

Not unusually in the least, that same exact line shows up — almost to the penny — in our weekly chart as well, this time as the 100% fibonacci retrace in the intermediate term.   Note —

So, as the activity in gold and silver, platinum and even oil and the lesser metals to some extent (TIE, RTI)  has been telling us for about a week now, it looks like “they” — the Fed, the ECB and the Japanese MOF have been hitting the liquidity enema solution one more time.  

That’s one big hammer Bernanke is flailing about.

I sure hope he doesn’t hurt anyone.

Best to you all, and stay with the rockets.   Also, GSS and EXK looked good today. 

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yv0MEMyot3A 450 300]

Hercules with Lasers… Go with it!

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It’s time to dumb it down.   Way down.

I am preparing myself for this coming weeks’ action by watching the classic Golan and Globus production “Lou Ferrigno’s Hercules.”   Watching this veritable feast of the cinema has –conservatively speaking — knocked out twice as many of my brain cells as would an all weekend black out date with Johnny Walker Red.  What’s more, there’s no hangover involved… just a rough couple of days of re-remembering my children’s names.

Which is all great preparation for what this market is likely to do should the dollar plummet down the nearest ravine, which I think it should do as soon as this bit of Grecian mess is resolved.  I believe that shall happen … shortly, as the Euro is already firming against the Swiss franc (which is actually made of cheese).  Soon it’s going to be hell for the Euro-bears, and Heaven Hill for we dollar bears. 

Here’s how I see the dollar resolving.  I think Friday’s failure to reach the recent highs and attendant turnover in most stochs is significant:

Not surprising, as we’ve expected the dollar to resume it’s downward drift, and now it appears that with housing numbers up, we have another excuse to expect inflation. 

Besides some of the recent gems I’ve spoken about, like The St. Joe Company [[JOE]] the land whore and the platinum twins [[PAL]] and Stillwater Mining Company [[SWC]] , I think I shall add to my Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] , my Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] (on a pullback to $76) and my Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] at market. 

I also like what [[MVG]] has done to her hair, and will add to Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] the gold spinner too.  Last, two smaller juniors that I believe I will be adding here are Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] and [[BAA]] .  

If I could only purchase one thing this week, however, it would likely be my “baby” — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] which is just now breaking out all over again:

My best to you all, and Merry Hercules to you, too.

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(For more information on Cup O’ Joe for a Joe click here.)
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The relationship of gold to the dollar is integral to my Jacksonian thesis, and I think to this overall market as well.  So I think it dispositive with regards to arguments that portray this market reflating on real earnings or anything of any tangible weurth (sic) to take a step back and look at a longer term picture of the gold dollar ratio. 

I bring you that view here with the following weekly chart illustrating the price of gold divided by the weurth (sic) of the U.S. fiat dollar in the form of “$USD.”

Maybe not exactly a textbook “CANSLIM” Whitman-style cup & handle, but given the proximity of the 34-week EMA here, I think we are setting up for a blastoff.

Here’s my other confirmation-biased bias chart that tells me the dollar is about to meet it’s comeuppance.   This is a longer term chart of the dollar alone ($USD again, and as of yesterday’s close) .   Note on this weekly how we are fast approaching two very significant fibonacci lines (50% retrace of the upmove and 38.2% retrace of the down-move) which I think will serve as a hard brake on this dollar exhuberance.

Note again that this is an “end of day” look (thanks to Stockcharts chintziness,  I cannot get you DXY intraday), and that we are already 40% of the way to filling the rest of that circled gap to the combination fib lines.  

Ben has been re-appointed ladies and gentlemen, and there’s a reason for that.   He certainly is not going to let down those 70 or so Senators who backed him in an election year.   The dollar will weaken again, believe it.

Trade accordingly.  I will be sniping for select names in the woods, as per usual.

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I see you!
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Despite the best laid plans of mice and men, not to mention Time Magazine weasels, physics still work and even fiat currencies bounce.   We are experiencing a necessary breather here in the nine year plunge of the dollar, otherwise known as The Potemkin Bull.

Here’s a hint as to where I think we’ll be going in the near term on the dollar proxy [[UUP]] :

 

Before you get all excited about your extra-ursine activity however, just know that this is not likely to last for very long.   Give it a couple of weeks, tops, before Time’s Genius of the Year  presses the one button he’s made available to himself to guide us all to economic Valhalla. 

That would be the button that attaches to the dollar printing presses.   For those of us who’ve been following the path of Jackson, that will be our signal to start buying miners and royalty plays again, this time in size.   In the meantime, I’ll be over here adding a little more [[SPY]] puttage, maybe some [[TZA]] and a couple of dollops of [[DUG]] for (just) deserts.    If you are in The PPT already, you will see the purchases first, as you have been.  

If you are not, then “a ha’penny will do,” I guess.     Off to listen to the sounds of “fap-fap-fap-fapping” coming from the Dope Slope.   At it’s crescendo, I will be buying gold, glorious gold.

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Yeah, I’m afraid our recent rise and today’s hiccup are all about the craptastic dollar, which my friend Cash & Guns pointed out yesterday may be indicating a rebound.   Let’s have a look at our favorite dollar proxy — [[UUP]] . Here’s the daily:
 

You can see on the daily chart above that we just popped into a pretty stiff consolidation zone today, and that it runs all the way to $24 — which is also close to the significant 61.8% retrace of that long term move at $24.06 or so.    But seeing as we’ve already penetrated that line, it’s now become resistance, and will serve as a barrier to our dollar rebound.

Now look at the weekly:

I will leave the conjecture up to you, but it looks like our $UUP dollar may have a hard time getting back over that $24 hump, even as it climbs back from that bear flag breakdown.   At least we know where the hard road lies, should it do so. 

Right now, I’m taking this as a signal to hold my precious metal positions.   Seeing as I’d do that anyway, you might rightly accuse me of pattern bias.  However, until the trend changes, I will not consider hedging my positions.

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[[CNXT]] , which I previewed here on Sunday night as a possible “BTFO” if it broke $1.50 did just that today, proving that the Fly’s tech thesis seems to be at least partially intact.   In honour (sic) of that win today, I will post two other “techish” names that look to be moving out of long term downtrends as well.

The first is really a medical device play, and — ironically — it was mentioned in a TC post to my blog the other night as a defense of the Israeli contributions to humanity (you’d think the Old Testament and Bar Raefeli would have been enough, but no, these guys just keep on giving).   Ladies and gentlemen, teeny tiny colon submarine producer Given Imaging Ltd. [[GIVN]] :

Note, that’s a weekly chart, which really emphasizes the significance of the trend break, IMHO.

Next weekly chart shows a similar strong trend change in Trimble Navigation Limited [[TRMB]] .   This one might even get all you “head and shoulders” fanatics’ back legs a twitching:

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Make no mistake, we’re still in the midst of a full out Horatio Nelson-type naval battle, here, with the combined cannonades of inflation and deflation, public & private sector debt, multi-headed “government assistance,” increasing taxation, shrinking consumption and worsening unemployment all being fired in unison at Her Majesty’s Portfolio Cruiser, the H.M.S Winship.

Luckily her sides are reinforced with a near-impenatrable alloy of silver, gold, molybdenum and all the various metallic crap that Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] pulls out of the earth.   For weapons systems, she’s got the finest grain elevator launchers of the fleet, courtesy of  The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] , which are in turn able to switch over to ethanol firing nozzles ready to inebriate the various Treasury pirates swinging off their black ships in boarding party fashion.  It doesn’t take much.

Speaking of those Treasury pirates, Lt. Commander Montgomery Scott himself would trade all his dilithium crystals for a shot at the defense shields provided by [[TBT]] , the “un-Treasuries” which will keep our ship sound and well-tarred in the coming T-Bond puke, courtesy of our trading partners, formerly known as “Barnum’s Finest.”  Looks like I should’ve grabbed a couple more of those on Friday as they bounced right off the pullback, but I was remiss.  Maybe Monday.

In the meantime, I’m feeling increasingly good about the prospects of the overall market (at least short term), and of my gold & silver plays.  Let’s take the latter first:

That monster stick on the weekly off the channel bottom, and through the 50% fib line is giving me the warm and fuzzies.  The outrageously cautious may wish to wait until we break that downtrend line, and guess what?  You’ll still be better off than those who bought at the end of May, early June.  

 Here’s the other reason I really like the sound money plays here:

 

I don’t know about you, but I think the cards are pointing to a less expensive dollar again.  Odd, no?

For my part, I will be collecting more juniors here, including Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , [[BAA]] , [[EXK]] , Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , and my new favourite (sic) Sir Walter’s Scott’s knight in shining armor — Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (USA) [[IVN]] .    Of course all the Jackson’s are great as well, but especially the silvers — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] , and [[PAAS]] .

Last, I think it’s imperative to realize why the dollar is getting skunked here.  Part of it is the deficits and debt we’ve already pledged to fund with the help of our suckers, er, trading partners.

 Part of it is a result of the promise of even more ridiculous legislation being rammed through Congress right now by feckless Congresscritters who are not even reading these bills.   Take a look at some of the yeoman’s  work done by retired Marine Peter Fleckenstein on the first 400 pages of the House health care monstrosity.   Really, if you were just thinking that they could get this through without it having any effect on you and your family — well, you’ll see that you’ve had your head in the sand.  

This is nothing less than the largest freedom grab in our country’s history — bar nothing, zero zip.   Try and read Peter’s parsing without getting a chill down your spine.

Last, I’ve included the Jackson Review.   I really should have allocated more cash last week.  I will do so for sure this week, so as not to continue lagging the performance of the straight stocks.

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Name/		%		%		Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	16-Jul	Change	17-Jul	Change		Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$    29.30		$     28.47	-2.83%		$              8,596	-0.15%		50 day still not out of question ($26.40)
EGO	9.20		9.21	0.11%		$              8,630	0.01%		Could be due for a little more pullback
GDX	38.33		38.64	0.81%		$            11,695	0.06%		Consolidating
GLD	91.98		91.93	-0.05%		$            10,573	0.00%		Over 20 & 50 days, but consolidating
IAG	10.05		10.22	1.69%		$            12,602	0.13%		10.60’s next resistance
MON	75.74		75.41	-0.44%		$              4,423	-0.01%		Pulled back, as expected.
NRP	22.89		23.12	1.00%		$              4,799	0.03%		Overbot, but still strong
PAAS	19.12		19.24	0.63%		$            11,556	0.04%		200 day @ 19.27
RGLD	40.59		40.67	0.20%		$            11,238	0.01%		Still under 20 & 50 day.
SLV	13.09		13.17	0.61%		$            10,699	0.04%		Back over 200 day, but overbot/.
SLW	8.39		8.48	1.07%		$              8,237	0.05%		$8.50 major resistance.
SSRI	18.76		19.15	2.08%		$            11,140	0.14%		Needs back over $19.
TBT	52.00		53.56	3.00%		$            10,669	0.19%		Will likely buy tomorrow on this pullback
TC	11.81		12.36	4.66%		$              5,798	0.16%		Getting ready to crank one out
TCK	20.03		21.06	5.14%		$            14,003	0.43%		JUST BTFO.  Likely consolidate now.
TZA	20.35		20.64	1.44%		$              4,159	0.04%		Prolly get some strength tomorrow
Cash (000)	$  26.42		$   26.42	0.01%		26,420.79	0.00%		Same
AVG (daily)				1.13%		$       175,236	1.17%
AVG (monthly)				4.03%		Actual
AVG (inception)				17.50%		Return	16.82%

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