_______________________

It’s Options Expiration Friday, and there’s all kinds of odd schtuff going on.   Interestingly, I marked up the dollar chart last night, and again could only get the title to “save” to the site.  I don’t know if this is a time of day issue connected to WordPress, or if it’s something going on with my home laptop (which is fine in all other respects), but it’s beginning to wear on me bones.

That said,that glitch allowed me to get some 20/20 hindsite on my review of last night, and that may be helpful to us all.  Note how I was looking for further dollar destruction, at least to the 20-day EMA yesterday evening:

Well, what really happened, then?  Instead of breaking down to the 20-day, the dollar soared (relatively, of course), starting at about 4:30 am (EDT) this morning,  from a break-down below $75.00 all the way to $75.76 at approximately 10:45 am, before burning out like an dynamite-filled white Bronco headed to the sun and dumping 25 basis points in about an hour. 

Was that all for the dollar today?  I’m going to go out on a limb and say yes, and attribute this morning’s chicanery to folks interesting in goosing certain options positions. 

 I say that because the price of gold ($GOLD) made a curiously similar — but opposite! — dump and go at the exact same time that the dollar did.   It dropped over $18 dollars starting at 4:30 this morning as well, from $1504/0z to $1486/oz, just as the dollar made it’s mystery march, only to viciously bounce back over $29 to $1515/oz in little more than an hour and half… 

We currently stand at a nickel over $1513/0z as the dollar tries to work back over $75.50, but my “tell” that the ruse if over lies over in my pile of Jacksonian miner stocks, which continue to strengthen and all show “highs of the day” as of this typing. 

Let’s see if my little prediction above doesn’t come true after all, despite early morning chicanery on the the part of Les Grand Shacqueurs du Monde.

___________________________

Meanwhile, if you want something more exotic than PM’s, I think you may have an opportunity in the Rare Earth Metals today, and particularly in one of my faves, QSURF:

I think this morning’s brief sell-off, which stayed above the 20-day EMA, may offer some entry opportunity for the less risk averse among you.   Best to all.

_________________

Comments »

 

_________________________

Indeud, there is no doubt we stand on the edge of a knife.  Curious formations abound, and give sign.  Take heed…

And then there’s this from today:

And last… the full retrace of the original breakout in the $HUI, Gold Bug Index.  Curiouser and Curiouser:

All the daily charts point to a bounce… not so much this final weekly above, but the circumstances of support could hold here as well.   We have revisited the lows, as I’d feared we should, in order to better stabilize this rebound.   Tomorrow should be interesting.   Be well.

_____________________

Comments »

 

_______________________________

I figured I’d throw out a rare intra-day post this morning to let you know exactly what I’m looking at to determine my next moves here.   As you may have guessed, my position will largely be dictated by the action of the dollar here as it struggles to emerge from a months long death spiral — whether temporarily or not.  

What will determine that decision in the near term will be the dollar’s actions as it approaches it’s long term cap — the 50-day EMA.  Notice how that line has served to knock the dollar back, even on strong  rebounds like the one we’ve witnessed this last week or so? 

Now, even if the dollar does break that 50-day EMA at $75.22, I think it’s rather unlikely that it will get much farther than the descending 200-day EMA above it at around $78.00.

 What I don’t want to do, however,  is wait around with overweighted positions in silver miners and AGQ while it decided to redescend.   I have enough budding gray hairs from my kids, thanks very much.

So the plan will be to cut back to about a 40% position across the board in the event of a dollar breach of the 50-day.  I will likely get rid of most if not all of my AGQ, though I may keep a stub position just to keep an eye on it.  Again, I may have a lot more slack in that position than you do, so mind your own risk at your acceptable levels.

Keep in mind also that I told the Monsieur at the end of last week, via private correspondance, that I wholly expected a retest of the lows in the silver miners in order to prove  this a more substantial rebound than the “V” we’ve seen thus far.  

That doesn’t mean it’s not hard to watch, of course.   Best to you all.

Comments »

 

_____________________________
Some prefer to chart the mathematical spreads between petroleum jelly and its tasty chemical equal, petroleum margarine (I can’t believe it’s not butter!), all the while poking a charred oak barrel stave into the entrails of a freshly killed hedge mole for further signs of rain or drought.

Me? I’m a man of simpler methodologies and observations. And over the last ten years, there’s rarely been a more able indicator than the following monthly view of this pathetic store of national goods and services:

Note that we’ve recently breached one near term support.  I don’t expect the dollar will be done keening into the night until we reach that second basing area, well below $71.00.

Luckily for us, that means we can still make some lemonade and Jack out of these lemons and white corn.  Despite the opprobrius doomsaying of the terminal top pickers, I’m coming across a number of charts that do NOT look like the now-cliched blowoff top we’re all expecting in the physical commodities, and specifically, the precious metals.   In this case, the miners have become “the tell” after lagging the physical commodities for some weeks now.

Take for example one of my finest stalwart Jacksonians, ANV.  Remember this set-up chart from mere days ago?

Pretty measured flag and pop formation right?   Now look again, mere days later… Does this methodical ascent give you pause to believe we’re pricing ourselvs to oblivion here?  Not me:

I get the same frisson from a number of other names that have pulled back and consolidated while the commodity metals themselves have gone somewhat bonkers.   As a result, these babies have room to roll for at least another goodly ascent to the stratos.  Consider AAU, which I’ve accumulated quite a bit of in these last weeks.  Recall this weekly chart from just before Valentine’s Day?

Now look at what has taken place just these last two days:

Does that chart scream out “exhaustion” to you?  Me neither.    

Last, let’s not forget some metals which aren’t so much “precious” as they are scarce.   Because of that concern, we can see moves and profitability in names like REE and AVL like we’ve seen with some of our precious names.   My favorite of the moment continues to be QSURF, which broke to new highs today like it was hocking silver on the side:

Go get ’em, tigers.  

_____________________________

Comments »

 __________________________
The first day of corn-back dollar trading started out promising, but ultimately ended up in a failed “pop” over the 20-day EMA ceiling. Late news out of Central Illinois informs us that the Fed’s newest Moline Corn Repository, while heavily fortified against human intervention — a la “Fort Knox” in the days of gold-backed currency — was most unfortunately sited next to a large hog farming operation. What happened next was true Bernankian justice…

Apparently the sus domesticus hordes resident next to the Corn Repository were overhwhelmed by the late afternoon corn-fruit scent coming from said Federal vaults, and that lure, excacerbated by an early Spring hormonal rutting urge, had the neighboring porcine hordes rending the outlying electric fencing and within moments, consuming the precious American staple (and currency backing) with piggish glee.

By late afternoon trading, one third of the Federal Reserve Currency-backing outstanding was in the belly of some of the nation’s most desireable pigs. The following daily chart illustrates the day’s action — especially the failure of the corn-dollar to break back above resistance– with heat-seeking stoat-like acuity:

That’s two days now that the corn-dollar has closed below $76.00.  Not good news for you dollar bulls (cough! cough! Cain Thaler! cough!).

However, there is a glimmer of optimism available as well.  Late tonight an emissary for the Fed mentioned that since most of the most recent reserve backing is now in the gut of some prized Illinois sows, Chairman Bernanke would announce soon the official newer and stronger “pork belly bacon fat-backed dollar,” later this Fall.

As a sop to certain liberal constituencies, the Chairman has also acceded to locate the new Federal Repository on 125th Street in New York City, next to Sylvia’s.   No further devaluation is anticipated.

______________________

Carry on… most likely with ANV, which has been a star in my portfolio this week, as all Jacksonians should be.

Comments »

 

____________________________

No, not the markets, although that’s going to happen sometime.  Nope, this is just me banging the kettle drum about the dollar going “pink submarine” again.  Had these charts ready last night, but the great god Westin decided to eliminate my wireless signal in random fashion (curse you, Westin!) in the middle of the night and I was too tired to call down and bitch them out.  

In any case, the chart below is pretty much where we are right now, save that the dollar is even lower ($75.90 @ 9:51 am EST) than it is on this chart:

We are fully through that blue line above, now.   Keep an eye out today, but I’d be surprised if we claw back above it today, and I don’t think the jobs number tomorrow will not give Bernanke any reason to tighten.   I have many favorites, but if you’re interesting in catch up, why not grab some volatility in an appreciating asset class.  Three guesses?

We are through that triangle top right now ($9.95) as I type.   Best to you all.

_____________________________

Comments »