Have you been paying attention… or…?

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Let me just remind you of this post from July 8th — about three weeks ago.   In it I predicted the imminent death of the dollar, following a slight rebound.  Remember this shot?

I was scoffed at. 

Jeered.

The object of tossed day old lettuces.

The Euro was dead, right?  Deflation is our doom, isn’t it?   The dollar’s got nothing, nothing to do with this wacked out market.  

Right?

Well, it turns out I was wrong after all…

We never even got back to that $85.00 rebound target…  I think it was like $84.50, tops.  

As for everything else?  Well….

Never question my strong pimp hand, and never think there’s anything going on that can be described as “good” in this market that’s not directly ascribable to overt manipulation.  Absolutely zippo.   That also means it won’t last very long.  Best make hay whilst the sun shines, etcetera, etcetera, Peter Cetera.

GFI should be next to unfold tomorrow, my lovelies.  

Carry on.

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“Opiate Dreams” 

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Don’t bother listening to any of the bullshit on Bubblevision, or even stuff you read on the latest financial blah blahg.  Unless it’s The PPT, you are wasting your time.

  Rather, you should concentrate on foreign commodity names with strong earnings paths, because the crap dollar is what’s making this thing work right now, and that will be true right through late October, early November.

You may remember, we have an election coming up?

Here’s the deal on the dollar.  It’s hugely oversold right now and very ripe for a bounce.  I think it gets all the way to $85 and maybe more before collapsing again.  Here’s the projection:

If you are in gold and silver, gird your loins.  We could see as low as mid $1100’s on the gold front, as a result of the dollar’s return to $85.   “Que sera,” I says.  “Suck it up,” I says.   We’ve been down this road before and we certainly know it’s ultimate end.   (That’s “up” for you noobs). 

In the meantime, buy some PBR, or some CEDC on any pullbacks– you can’t go wrong betting on Brazilian oil or Polish folks taking to the bottle.  Both are top “furrin picks,” on top of my PM hordes.  Go get ’em.

On the PM horde front, and with regard to a dollar bounce, I may sell some calls.  I will certainly let you know.   Right now, I am sitting, eating samiches, counting coin.

And drinking fine wine and eggsellent ales, of course.   I am still on vacation, after all.

Best to you. 

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[youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghz4_kikLkE 450 300]

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I’ve gone full weepin’ Patriotic American soft on this 4th of July evening, just about an hour before by second son achieves the age of Manhood (were we Hebraic, we’d throw a Bar Mitzvah.  Instead we’ll just wish for mitzvahs for him).   Yes, he’s a 4th of July baby, and full of vim and vinegar and heartbreak, just like America.   Right now, he’s set on the Air Force Academy and flying superfast jets.  

Next year, who knows?  Maybe the seedings of a bad Tom Cruise movie.

But as always, I have hope, and that hope is dependent upon the good people of America, whom I meet every day.   None more so than in the marvelous South, God bless it.   Wouldn’t it be ironic if they had to secede all over again, this time in the hopes of preserving of Lincoln’s Republic?   Stranger things have happened… I passed by Lincoln Memorial University on the way to the beach … and it was in Tennessee.  

I must tell you, however, that things feel more connected down here, less amorphous, and even less cynical.  Maybe it’s the ocean, or the hermit crabs.   More likely it’s the people. 

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Enough philosophizing, I have to slay dragons.   A nameless droog from Fly’s blog (one who is not even a PPT denizen, curse his eyes), has remarked that we of the gold bug variation are in deep scheiss from this point onward.  

I have trouble accepting that prediciton and declare such droog, “asshattish,” in response.

Let’s look at our daily $HUI again, like we did two days back… and see if things have changed much:

I have trouble getting worried about this daily chart.   As you can see, we can hit $440 and still be okay, as we have not become totally oversold yet.   Still, that doji yesterday tells me we haven’t much to go here. 

Meanwhile, our nemesis, the Bernanke Dollar, broke some significant barriers on Friday:

That break of the consolidation zone doesn’t bode well for the dollar ($USD) going forward, even in this low RSI environment.   The weekly tells the better tale of broken hearts and broken trends…

New first target?  $82.oo.  That target should bode well for stocks too.   Be well, friends– and Happy 4th to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqlJl1LfDP4 450 300]

Love this version….

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Going up to the territory of Monsieur Le Docteur du Fly for a couple of days for business that could very well shake the foundations of Finance itself..

Or barring that, I’ll at least grab a decent steak and catch up w. some friends.    Whatever the case, I will be “around”  these premises only sporadically as I cannot guarantee that my connections will be up to speed or that I won’t have all of my time accounted for whilst up there.

I’ll leave you with your rudders tied for the moment, as I think we may get a little bit more grinding into the Friday expiration, with the possibility of a last pop into that date after more muddling tomorrow.   The dollar bounced back very slightly today an ended in the lower part of it’s track for the candle pattern.   The golds, perhaps sensing continuing weakness in $USD are continuing to crank, almost in step-fashion across the board.

Today RBY finally took off as predicted last weekend, up over 5.5% today:

  

RBY looks like it may be finally launching off that consolidation of the handle.  I expect more this week.

 BAA — which took off right away on Monday as you recall — continues to rise, and has now completely recouped it’s 19% discount from the secondary offering level I’d mentioned over the weekend…. Recouped it… AND MORE.

As you can see on that weekly chart’s stochastics… BAA has a ways to go as well, and I believe it will.

I continue to see strength in my favourite stocks, which fills me with untold joy, as I’ve pallet loads of them.  SLW looked great today, as did ANV and especially IAG.   I continue to like EGO here as well, not to mention RGLD, EXK and PAAS.   Eat, and enjoy.

Best to you all, hope to speak to you soon.

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“Dollar Bill,” the Three Legged Horse 

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The formidable monster dollar days are as done as well oiled-Gulf cod, with a side of Pelican mashies.   The Euro may continue to break down and every paper currency in the universe could go the way of all tinder, but I do not think any of it will help our much abused dollar.

Nope, you see Bernanke caught that acrid whif of deflation over the last fortnight, and he knew exactly what he had to do.  And he did it — he opened lines of credit for crappy multinational and Euro banks to stabilise (sic) their burgeoning debt crisis.   He used our bucks to help sterilise (sic) bad Greek and Carpathian debt like it was mere Fannie Mae mortgages or something similar.

And what a time to do so — when the dollar was as healthy as a three legged horse in a horse amputee ward at the veterinarian hospital.   Heck, you might have even ridden that horse, were you forced too.

To the abbatoir.

So Bernanke saved all the legless horses in Europe with his three legged horse and guess what… the bill has come due and it’s stipulates right here in ten point Hellenic script: “more legs.”  

More legs down as the printing presses continue to fly and whirl and shuttlecock and do all things printing presses do whilst churning out fresh greenback, further diluting their wirth (sic) to one an all.   Note how in the weekly, we’ve got a two week breakdown in the works since our tumultous “third top” high back in early June….

As you can see $85.00 is my near term goal, and that should coincide with a nice spike in the overall markets (not just the PM’s though they should surely benefit too) after we work off the overbought high so adroitly noted in The PPT .   

You can see $85.00 makes sense on the daily as well:

$85 is very close to our 50-day EMA as well, which further reinforces that target as a resting point, if not a full rebound target.

What will happen as a result of this continuing dollar meander down?   I’m afraid that in the intermediate term, it’s bullish for the markets — even if only artificially so.   Luckily, one can better guard his well-earned profits by placing them in an operating company that measures its assets not in dollars, but in something more substantial.  

That’s correuct, “the precious” is just that substanital asset, and mining operators have that, and leverage too.

You know my favourites as they never fail to please… ANV, SLW, EGO, IAG, and PAAS for now.   Keep a firm hand on the best, and you will have ample “excess capital” to play with the rest, like the other evenings’ offerings (BAA and RBY).

Gun to my head best immediate picks :  TC, TCK, CREE, ANV and IAG.

Stay safe, my friends.

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No, it’s not what you think.   I’m not packing the goats and chickens (I have a head chicken, I’ll have you know) and donkeys up for a caravan trip to Romania, even though that’s the legendary land that spawned Vlad Dracul.

Otherwise known as “Gapping and Yapping.”   No scheiss, join The PPT and check it out.  He’s the real thing.

No, no plans for Romania, just yet.   Instead my title refers to the oft-promised Dow Theory Analysis of the Transports that I’d mentioned over last weekend.   Despite the hotness of yesterday’s gold pick [[BBA]], I will digress in a wood less traveled by, and momentarily  talk about the Dow Transports and how they are giving us nice signs, despite the prevalent gloom and doom.

The Transports, as I’ve mentioned before, are the key to the Dow Theory.   If they do not confirm, then there is no bear… yet.    And thus far, the Dow Jones Transportation Index [[$TRAN]] has not confirmed a lower low vis-a-vis those February lows which we made on the SPY recently.  Note how the weekly shows the non-confirmation:

As you can see on the weekly, the Trannies have gotten back above that very important 61.8% Golden Ratio Fibonacci Line.   I believe that line will serve as support, even if we enter into a temporary oversold condition here, kudos to The PPT.

On the daily, it’s a similar exercise in rebuilding:

 

We’ve had five days of nice solid recovery, the last two of which have broken that downtrend line with some vim.   Though today connotes a bit of oversold-ness, I’d contend we will find some support on that downtrend line, and better, that the Transports will lead us higher again.

Before you give me a rose tiara and call me Polyanna, please recognize there’s only one reason for the stock market to be rallying right now, and it stems from the sound of that “clacking” that you hear even more disinctly than the Vuvazellas (sp?) contributing to the beehive noises at the World Cup. 

Remember that dollar weekly chart from about a week back?  Well, coincidentally, Old Uncle Green-backs is still following that script… I touched nothing on the narrative here, just updated the chart itself…

I think we’re headed into more dollar doom.  Probably not all at once, but herky-jerky, back down the pike.  That means inflating asset markets, no matter what the CPI says.

Act accordingly.   And for goodness sakes, get into The PPT so you can tell your grandkids about saving their college tuituons.  Best to you all.

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UPDATE:  Drunken Dem Congress Critters Gone Bad!!   Time to Retire This Fist-First Nut,  Tarheels:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_oqIP9yagkQ 450 300]

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