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I figured I’d throw out a rare intra-day post this morning to let you know exactly what I’m looking at to determine my next moves here. As you may have guessed, my position will largely be dictated by the action of the dollar here as it struggles to emerge from a months long death spiral — whether temporarily or not.
What will determine that decision in the near term will be the dollar’s actions as it approaches it’s long term cap — the 50-day EMA. Notice how that line has served to knock the dollar back, even on strong rebounds like the one we’ve witnessed this last week or so?
Now, even if the dollar does break that 50-day EMA at $75.22, I think it’s rather unlikely that it will get much farther than the descending 200-day EMA above it at around $78.00.
What I don’t want to do, however, is wait around with overweighted positions in silver miners and AGQ while it decided to redescend. I have enough budding gray hairs from my kids, thanks very much.
So the plan will be to cut back to about a 40% position across the board in the event of a dollar breach of the 50-day. I will likely get rid of most if not all of my AGQ, though I may keep a stub position just to keep an eye on it. Again, I may have a lot more slack in that position than you do, so mind your own risk at your acceptable levels.
Keep in mind also that I told the Monsieur at the end of last week, via private correspondance, that I wholly expected a retest of the lows in the silver miners in order to prove this a more substantial rebound than the “V” we’ve seen thus far.
That doesn’t mean it’s not hard to watch, of course. Best to you all.
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Thanks for the intra-day. the mini bull-flag setup on dollar & descending trendline break is worrisome. Dollar appears to have carved out a bottom that will be hard to penetrate on the way back down…
The 23.6% fib from the decline since Jan seems to be capping Dixie’s rise just below the 50 for now…
Jake giving Fly private tips?
No wonder Fly is so good….. lol 😛
Jake,
Thanks so much for keeping us current.
I cut my Pm’s back to 56% and got rid of SLV, AGQ, and SIL. I’ll be watching and will add back more gold if the dollar resumes the downward trend.
Does this just affect your AGQ position or PM’s in general?
Meaning i was thinking about scooping up some more XG but maybe i should wait?
You should wait.
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Sorry, just saw “across the board.” I’ve answered my own question.
But I am thinking about scooping up some more crAAPL. It’s been consolidating around that 348-349 level for a couple of weeks now. Hard to resist.
And for DMG, “Couldn’t put it down!”
Couldnt put what down?
That book you told me about? I’m almost done and it is pretty funny.
That book is great but that’s not what i was hinting at.
I was just mimicking la grande dame, “Couldn’t resist!” “Couldn’t put it down!!” …usually on a snoopy card.
Same question I asked the Fly, any particular hedges you like heading forward if this is confirmed – shor tthe russell? commodities etf or something?
Thanks,
Ked
TZA has been a good’un.
Maybe buy some XLP puts too.
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$dxy giving silver the haymaker punch today lol.
dollar’s touching the 50, let’s see what happens
Great insight, Jake. Thx!
Appreciate the intraday update, Sir Jake.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jk7ExYARW6I
Ouch. Surprised jonti isn’t all over this
What’s he going to say? That the price of silver is now at the same price he started shorting on Friday and that he missed a $3+ move up?
Well well little man.
Ya know.. as insane as this sounds. And it does sound insane.
AG, PSLV, EXK, AAU, AGQ are all in the buy zones for the PPT. Excellent buy zones I might add.
Bear Trap? Bull Trap? I don’t know. All I know is the PPT likes these here and now. Making no predictions as to the price action.
As I said, we all have our risk tolerances. I will wait for confirmation on the above stated thesis before I do anything.
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Looking forward to a late nite Gint post.
No need to wait for “confirmation”. All you need is me to give the blessing. I have been 100% right on the swings in silver and the miners. I say its time to go up. Its now time and the PMs dont move unless I bless it.
Lol
I’m glad I didn’t enter the EUR/USD, was considering shorting the USD. Do you use UUP for the dollar Jake?
Usually use $DX-Y which you can track in a number of places. I like ino.com, mostly out of habit.
You can use UUP as well, however. Good proxy.
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I must admit, DXY is most concerning right now…
Thanks goes out to the QB.
Well, all i can say is FUCK. I shoulda kept my arse outta this PM non-sense. EXK SLW and ANV murdered me today.
But you know what — fuck this. I’m not selling with this debt ceiling business upon us. I don’t see how gold and silver keep falling with the US threatening to default.
I may hedge a little, somehow. Maybe just buy SLV puts directly.
These stocks fall a lot harder for a lot longer than anyone realizes.
The party’s over for awhile. Sell at your earliest opportunity and come back in mid-summer.
I’m just going to hedge the positions a bit….they are only about 8% of my portfolio and I am about breakeven on most of them (except farkin ANV).
I will hedge a bit and add on any major weakness. Long term the PMs will pay….going to follow jake’s advice and not try to time it too much.
You should have doubled down!!! EXK, SLW and ANV dont move until I give them my blessing. They didnt have my blessing today. Now I have given them permission to make the move. The market doesnt do what you say, it does what I say and I say its time. Its time bud.
What a fucking joke this site has become…a bunch of idiotic traders in the best buy-and-hold market in the past 10 years. You guys need some fucking Prozac to calm down.
Energy and commodities get smoked, the dollar rallies and bonds rally and everyone thinks the world is ending….these are the best signs of a good long term buy and hold market that true investors could want.
Last week you all panicked, then there was a two day fake rally and the speculators here were back to cheering and buying gold, silver and oil – like that makes a good environment for a strong long term stock market and economy.
The Fly puts 50% of his fund into silver and refiners and calls that investing, then reverses as quickly as he got in. He claims great returns but never discloses full positions and average prices – even inside the PPT.
And then he is 93% invested while his PPT signal is registering a 3.25 yesterday…how could you listen to someone that doesn’t follow his own tools that he is trying to sell you? How desperate are you people?
Alphadawg makes up his returns and magically top ticks and bottom ticks key trades to enhance his performance…Jake is great to read but doesn’t provide enough trade information to make his money making skills believable.
It’s 20th Century snake oil salesman selling the tonic of the times to inexperienced traders in a buy-and-hold market….paper traders, they are all..
dude shut the fuck up i don’t want to read the same comment copy/pasted all over the place
Eat my Balls!
How did you like my call of shorting silver? ZSL is up another 18% today. Well, now its time to sell sell sell your ZSL and get into AGQ. Im not going to be irresponsible saying you should hold it forever as an “investment”
You made a nice call Jonti.
If you can do that consistently, you will get a tab.
If you can’t, you’ll be relegated to the one-pick wonders bin.
Actually it was a fluke. I picked the price out of my expanded sphincter