There is nothing like “living for the moment,” and I won’t begrudge the staunchest of my conservative reader base a splash in Fly’s Pool of Carney Delights,  over on his blog and in the incredibly exciting “User Notes” section of The PPT  .   Let me assure you, ladies and gentlemen, there be some astute trading minds throwing Kruggerands around in that room.

That said, I’m sure glad I’ve got the bulk of my holdings in the JCHP, my friends, because I’m not sure how much time is going to be left in this “bring your own lava lamp” filthy 70’s-era hot tub party.    I think I already see some unpleasant objects of questionable birth rising up amongst the bubbles.  

First, I’ll draw your attention to our friend, Mr. U.S. Dollar.   He’s pretty much in “do or die” territory here, and frankly, I’m thinking we’re in trouble whether he strengthens or not.    Lookee here — remember our faithful dollar proxy UUP?

Well, heck if he’s not banging around down at the same December 18th lows that set the timer going on our next market plunge (which occurred about two weeks after the dollar started to climb again).   And here’s what’s worse… the dollar can continue to go down here, but I’m not sure that’s going to benefit our stock markets much, either.  

Why?   Well because there’s another bit of business the dollar keeps low if it’s behaving, and that’s our Treasuries’ interest rates.   If we show relative strength in our dollar, then foreign investors are willing to keep our debt.   But if the dollar keeps getting mauled here… well, those same folks might not be so kind to our lovely treasury paper.   Remember back when we first advocated  TBT as a Jacksonian pick?  Here was the chart:

We were expecting a nice move up, and we sure got it — in spades.   However, now the rapid run up in rate must give us pause with regard to how much longer the music can play.   Look at how far we’ve come since that last posting:

Bang!  All the way above the 200-day EMA.   Now you know I’ve been selling calls against my position here, in anticipation of a pullback.  Well, even as I expect a pullback, I’m just as ready to take a loss on those calls if I see this thing launch anymore than it has.  

Remember, TBT is my “Stock of the Year” pick in Rajun’s annual contest, and I continue to believe TBT is going to be the play of the next three to five years, minimum, thanks to the unwinding that will have to happen in our long term bond rates.   That said, high interest rates eventually take a bite out of stock prices, so we are going to have to be even more synched than ever with the JCHP. 

Remain vigilant my friends, and make sure you attend to RGLD.   I believe it’s the harbinger of our gold holdings’ future.   The other PMs will follow it’s lead, but it will likely become the star of this Jacksonian portfolio in future.

UPDATE:  I added another 1,000 shares to my SSRI holdings today.   I will add another 1,000 if I see further weakness, and then I will likely be “full up” in this name.

______________________________________________

		26-May	% Change
ANDE		$   24.95	6.90%
GDX		41.84	-0.50%
GLD		93.76	-0.73%
IAG		10.56	-2.76%
MON		85.25	-1.57%
NRP		22.75	2.43%
PAAS		21.64	1.03%
RGLD		45.38	2.53%
SLV		14.42	-0.55%
SLW		9.49	1.61%
SSRI		20.82	-4.19%
TBT		55.07	2.80%
TC		8.73	1.04%
TSO		16.73	3.08%
Avg %			0.85%

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Not to be disparaging, but I’ve felt I’ve spent the week with a squadron of flying goats.   There you are flitting from tree to tree looking for the best green shoots, ears up and horns out,  “baaaaahhhing” it up to beat the band.   

Chips stocks!  Cancer stocks!  Lenny Dykstra Car Wash franchise stocks!  Get ’em while they’re hot from the chute!

But why must you make your lives so difficult?  There’s no reason to search for rare buds in the top branches of the acacia tree when there’s plenty of bull grass right here on the ground.   Come down from there and take a look at the freshly scythed alfalfa I have gathered for you, my yellow-eyed friends. 

Remember our weekly $HUI chart from last week?

Well, look what’s happened this week…. Pop!

Can anything be more promising than that little green bud out of the consolidation zone?    And yes, we’re a little overbought here, and should be coming into some more resistance around 400 or so, but we should welcome that opportunity.  

After all my boy, it is a bull market — and maybe the only one you’ll see for years to come.  So relax some, take a load off, and get your nets ready.   It’s almost harvest time again.

This week’s Jackson Core Holdings Portfolio results were very pleasing, especially as measured against the indexes.   So have some nice goat cheese this weekend, and maybe try to pause a second whilst hoisting that relaxing beverage to remember those who have served, and especially those who have fallen in order that you could enjoy this great country.    Be well.

Name	5/8/2009	5/15/2009	∆	5/22/2009	∆
ANDE	$    21.50	$      21.31	-0.88%	$    23.34	9.53%
GDX	37.46	37.65	0.51%	42.05	11.69%
GLD	89.98	91.55	1.74%	94.45	3.17%
IAG	9.92	9.83	-0.91%	10.86	10.48%
MON	86.42	89.95	4.08%	86.61	-3.71%
NRP	23.39	21.29	-8.98%	22.21	4.32%
PAAS	19.35	18.66	-3.57%	21.42	14.79%
RGLD	39.90	39.97	0.18%	44.26	10.73%
SLV	13.79	13.77	-0.15%	14.50	5.30%
SLW	8.91	8.58	-3.70%	9.34	8.86%
SSRI	20.06	19.06	-4.99%	21.73	14.01%
TBT	52.24	49.13	-5.95%	53.57	9.04%
TC	7.98	7.65	-4.14%	8.64	12.94%
TSO	16.72	16.60	-0.72%	16.23	-2.23%
		AVG	-1.96%		7.78%
Name	5/8/2009	5/15/2009	∆	5/22/2009	∆
SPY	$    92.98	$      88.71	-4.59%	$    89.02	0.35%
QQQQ	34.23	33.37	-2.51%	33.54	0.51%
DIA	85.47	82.78	-3.15%	82.87	0.11%
NDX	1,394.16	1,355.11	-2.80%	1,363.17	0.59%
RUT	511.82	475.84	-7.03%	477.62	0.37%
		AVG	-4.02%		0.39%

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Why now this crying, this cringing, this fear?

What ‘ports of market disaster come near?

Come,  there’s no trembling, no reason to hide.

For this day, Brave ‘Drew Jackson, the Dude, will abide.  

____________________

Have you good silver and gold in supply?

Use you green paper instead for your chai?

Best keep this warning in back of your mind,

Fed Notes like those will soon buff your behind!

_______________

Silver Wheaton, Pan American and S-S-R-I

With bright silver trumpets the thieves they descry!

And their fellows in golden and anthracite hue,

(Gold, Royal Gold, NRP name this crew)

Like friends made in foxholes– they will always stay true.

___________________________

And in our travels, let’s not forget “farmer’s friend:”

Stout “Mr. Anderson” forges an uprising trend.

And those thinking  now of their grandkiddies needs,

Must never disdain Sir Monsanto’s brave seeds.

_________________

“Molybdenum’s” fun just to say, if you ask me,

But “TC” is  the name of the stock that will task me. 

Especially when earl and gas spreads ‘come dear,

And Tesoro’s my ‘folios’ sole quit-claiming cheer.

_________________________

What’s left to us then, in the Jacksonian Core?

But to brandish the bane of that Great Federal Whore?

Yes Ben Bernake, I speak now to thee…

And like a cross to a vampire, hold high TBT!

___________________________

 ANDE — $22.75  (+0.57%)

GDX — $40.47 (+5.31%)

GLD — $92.25  (+1.42)

IAG – $10.16 (+2.83%) 

MON — $91.83 (+2.49)

 

NRP — $23.37 (+3.41%)

PAAS — $20.99 (+6.33%)

RGLD – $42.77 (+5.19%)

SLV — $14.10  (+0.86%)

SLW — $9.46  (+3.61%)

SSRI — $22.00  (+5.47%)

TBT — $49.95  (-2.14%)

TC — $9.14 (+1.56%)

TSO — $17.29 (+0.41%)

Daily Average:  +2.69 %

_____________________

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One of these days I’ll shut the hell up about moving you into real money assets as quickly as your penny stock-spindling portfolio will allow.

But that day is not this day.   Not when the latest news clacking over the Jesse Livermore-era news ticker  in my offices reveals how Kommandant Barack is now going to nationalize GM — but “only temporarily.”   Turns out Dear Leader wants just enough time for Rahm Emmanual and Lanny Davis to wheel that aging aerophin-appended Caddy into his airplane hangar chop shop so to whack it up for distribution to loyal U.A.W. gummint cheese recipients.  

Tanks you veddy much, Kommandant, and dont’ forget to save the steering wheel, the white wall tires and the chrome ashtrays for the bond holders!    I said leave those white wall tires, you! 

So if the good fellahs in charge of everything  — and damn, they really seem like they are in charge of everything these days, don’t they? — are that cavalier about the big buck bondholders (some of whom were stupid enough to give them campaign money just months ago) , doesn’t that make you just a wee bit nervous about how well they are going to treat that other little U.S. bond obligation: The Federal Reserve Note?

So have fun, and be a silly piebald carnival piker if you’re so compelled.   By all means, stuff yourself into the clown car with all the other PPT nutjobs .  Throw some funny money at chip stocks that have been moribund since Bill Gates was still a virgin, if you feel that exercise will further your spiritual growth.   Go nuts. 

Hell, you’ll probably find me in that same Yugo  from time to time, playing Parcheesi with Ragin Cajun  whilst simultaneously sword fighting  The Chart Addict.    I’m human, after all, and enjoy an OTB rocket ride for greasy coin and bed bugged comfort as much as the next guy. 

Just don’t get too homey in that clown car, Homey.  Five will get you ten it will soon be remandered by the EPA for egregious CAFE standard violations, environmentally malevolant tailpipe emanations,  and toxic silly string abuse.    Then it’ll be medical experiments for the lot of us.

Well, not those who have been prudent about tendering some savings to the Jacksonian Core Holding Portfolio, whose hard money and hard asset plays will serve to keep some of us cosy with hot buttered rums and chedder toasties , whilst the OTB pikers scrape at our doors.  No luck for them I’m afraid.   They shall be turned out with a stern warning from Cuddy, our trusty footman.

But Cuddy welcomes the purchase of silver this day, as the Three Musketeers SSRI,  PAAS and  SLW scored again, with wins of 7.64%, 5.39% and 3.75%, respectively.   Do you get the feeling the market is trying to tell you something, Jacksonians?  

Beating even silver today was coveted (but not precious) metal molybdenum, as  JCHP member TC rang the bell with gains of 9.36% today.   All in all, the Portfolio only had two slight losses, and both in the red hot agricultural sector.  I expect MON (-0.69) and ANDE’s (-1.09)  small losses to be more like rests than ultimate pullbacks.   Still, this is why we’ve diversified even within this stable grouping, up 2.85% for the day.   Now quickly, onto our daily review:

ANDE — $22.62  (-1.09%)

GDX — $38.43 (+2.51%)

GLD — $90.96 (+0.66)

IAG – $9.88 (+1.23%) 

PAAS — $19.74 (+5.39%)

RGLD – $40.66 (+2.16%)

SLV — $13.98  (+2.95%)

SLW — $9.13  (+3.75%)

SSRI — $20.86  (+7.64%)

TBT — $51.04 (+1.07%)

TC — $9.00 (+9.36%)

TSO — $17.22 (+3.11%)

Daily Average:  +2.85 %

________________________

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1Qvnixz1TE 450 300]

Not so bright, but a good guy to have around when the Fox is in the hen house!  (No really, that’s a metaphor… really!)

The Amex Gold Bugs Index (AMEX: $HUI) is one of my touchstone index’s for my precious metal portfolio.    The $HUI contains mostly unhedged gold mining companies and a couple of crappy silver miners (CDE and HL) , who don’t really serve as good representatives for the silver mining community (unlike Jacksonians SLW, PAAS, and SSRI). Jacksonians Core gold holdings [[EGO]] and IAG are members, however, along with “possible” new entrants GG and AUY.  The full fifteen components are listed here.

Because of it’s silver component, I find the $HUI even more useful than the ETF GDX as a precious metal miner index.   So let’s have a look at the daily and weekly charts to see where we are:

As you can see from the chart, the current daily is showing signs of a pullback, likely to the 20-day EMA at $323 to $325.   This is perfectly healthy — and in fact welcome — given the recent drive to the long term resistance line pictured.   I expect it won’t be long before we are above that line and into the free air described in the “breakout zone.”

As for the weekly:

You can see we have broken above the long term downtrend line on the weekly chart, and are also seeing a bullish cross on the 13-34 week EMA’s.   The midweek doji indicates we may test lower, but again, it looks like we are headed out of the consolidation zone soon.

Last, I annotated the long term weekly chart of SLW just for shits and giggles, to show where it is in relation to the $HUI weekly above, and to point out some obvious (from a weekly prospective) target zones.    One thing I would point out is the long term fib lines show the 38.2% retracement line at $9.02, which we tested earlier this week.   Again, it’s perfectly natural to have the price level turn away at that important point.   Given the strength of the $HUI,  however, I expect that $9.02 will not hold twice.   Viz:

I will try to get back later tonight to update the Jacksonian Core performance stats, but I have to run to pick up one of the boys from lax practice.    You know, “the aerobic baseball?”

Best to you all.

_____________

Jacksonian Core’s Performance  for 5/14/09 was largely flat, with ten “down” positions keeping their losses in the pennies.  On the other hand, of the four stocks in the black today, two —ANDE and TSO– were up over 5%, making it a market neutral day overall.:

ANDE — $20.88 (+5.51%)

GDX — $38.05 (+0.29%)

GLD — $91.03 (-0.07%)

IAG — $9.78  (-0.91%)

PAAS — $19.20 (-0.31%)

RGLD — $40.56 (-0.10%)

SLV — $13.85  (+0.29%)

SLW — $8.84  (-0.11%)

SSRI — $19.89 (-0.22%)

TBT — $48.94(-0.71%)

TC — $7.63 (-0.90%)

TSO — $17.21 (+6.96%)

Have a nice evening, all.

_____________________________

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‘Twas a rough day in the trenches for most of the Jacksonian Core,  but then we turned lemons into lemonade by using the retrenchment here to pick up some final positions in the silver miners, including AGQ (Double Silver ETF), PAAS,  and SSRI.   Those buys were featured in my previous post,  if you want entry points.

   I did not add to my “favourite” (sic) silver miner – SLW, but only because I already have what I consider to be a “full position” in SLW, at least for now.    I may augment that position from time to time with options purchases (or sales in hedging situations), but I will likely not add any more equity in that name.

I also eschewed adding more EXK  (-5.89%) today, due mostly to it’s volatility and low float (less than 150 k shares traded a day).  This is a stock you want to accumulate when it’s asleep — its just too damn hard to pick up when it’s moving hard one way or another.    I reserve the right to add to EXK in more calm seas.

I also added some non-Jacksonian Core gold positions, some old, and some new, whose entries are also found in the previous post.    You’ll recall I purchased a beginning position in NGD just before yesterday’s close.    That stock actually held up well, so I decided to also add its “brothers” NG and NXG.  All of these have been showing favourable (sic) patterns in the last few weeks, and their purchase is part of a diversification strategy in the smaller miners.   It’s best to take this shotgun approach with these smaller guys, as you usually cannot pick up their exposure via the GDX ETF, which only purchases the larger cap issues  but you want to have a position in these flyers for when they start to run.   Some of them will double and triple, but in these cycle peaks, you never know which.     

In that regard, I also added to my position in ANV at the end of the day.    Like with SLW and EGO, I now have a full position in this name, and expect to see it run to at least the 61.8% fib retrace at $6.72 before breaking out to new 52-week highs. 

I also took this opportunity to hedge out my largest (and non-Jacksonian) position in UPS, and to begin a “foot in” purchase in SRS  as well. 

Non-PM Jacksonians did well and not so well today, MON was up a little less than 1% while its sister Ag play ANDE was off  4.67%.    If ANDE cannot hold above the $19.40 uptrend line here, it’s likely to fill that gap over a dollar below it.   As well, Jacksonian Core Coal play NRP (-4.89%) has been performing miserably here, even as coal operators have been consolidating.    This could be due to a (temporary) interest rate response, but I won’t recommend adding to this one until it’s back over the 38.6% retrace at $22.70.     Last, refiner TSO was largely flat–  off less than half a percent.

Without further ado, here’s the 14-Member Jacksonian Core’s performance (arranged alphabetically for your reading pleasure) for today:

ANDE — $19.79  (-4.67%)

GDX — $37.94 (-2.61%)

GLD — $91.09 (+0.42)

IAG — $9.87 (-2.66%) 

PAAS — $19.26 (-3.02%)

RGLD — $40.60 (-2.98%)

SLV — $13.81 (-1.49%)

SLW — $8.85 (-5.04%)

SSRI — $19.93 (-5.18%)

TBT — $49.29 (-2.08%)

TC — $7.68 (-4.00%)

TSO — $16.09 (-0.43%)

_____________________________

A bloody good evening to you all!

(Warning! Extremely stupid video to follow, usher the children from the room)

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teM_imSYGVs 450 300] 

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