Make no mistake, we’re still in the midst of a full out Horatio Nelson-type naval battle, here, with the combined cannonades of inflation and deflation, public & private sector debt, multi-headed “government assistance,” increasing taxation, shrinking consumption and worsening unemployment all being fired in unison at Her Majesty’s Portfolio Cruiser, the H.M.S Winship.

Luckily her sides are reinforced with a near-impenatrable alloy of silver, gold, molybdenum and all the various metallic crap that Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] pulls out of the earth.   For weapons systems, she’s got the finest grain elevator launchers of the fleet, courtesy of  The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] , which are in turn able to switch over to ethanol firing nozzles ready to inebriate the various Treasury pirates swinging off their black ships in boarding party fashion.  It doesn’t take much.

Speaking of those Treasury pirates, Lt. Commander Montgomery Scott himself would trade all his dilithium crystals for a shot at the defense shields provided by [[TBT]] , the “un-Treasuries” which will keep our ship sound and well-tarred in the coming T-Bond puke, courtesy of our trading partners, formerly known as “Barnum’s Finest.”  Looks like I should’ve grabbed a couple more of those on Friday as they bounced right off the pullback, but I was remiss.  Maybe Monday.

In the meantime, I’m feeling increasingly good about the prospects of the overall market (at least short term), and of my gold & silver plays.  Let’s take the latter first:

That monster stick on the weekly off the channel bottom, and through the 50% fib line is giving me the warm and fuzzies.  The outrageously cautious may wish to wait until we break that downtrend line, and guess what?  You’ll still be better off than those who bought at the end of May, early June.  

 Here’s the other reason I really like the sound money plays here:

 

I don’t know about you, but I think the cards are pointing to a less expensive dollar again.  Odd, no?

For my part, I will be collecting more juniors here, including Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , [[BAA]] , [[EXK]] , Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , and my new favourite (sic) Sir Walter’s Scott’s knight in shining armor — Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (USA) [[IVN]] .    Of course all the Jackson’s are great as well, but especially the silvers — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] , and [[PAAS]] .

Last, I think it’s imperative to realize why the dollar is getting skunked here.  Part of it is the deficits and debt we’ve already pledged to fund with the help of our suckers, er, trading partners.

 Part of it is a result of the promise of even more ridiculous legislation being rammed through Congress right now by feckless Congresscritters who are not even reading these bills.   Take a look at some of the yeoman’s  work done by retired Marine Peter Fleckenstein on the first 400 pages of the House health care monstrosity.   Really, if you were just thinking that they could get this through without it having any effect on you and your family — well, you’ll see that you’ve had your head in the sand.  

This is nothing less than the largest freedom grab in our country’s history — bar nothing, zero zip.   Try and read Peter’s parsing without getting a chill down your spine.

Last, I’ve included the Jackson Review.   I really should have allocated more cash last week.  I will do so for sure this week, so as not to continue lagging the performance of the straight stocks.

________________________

Name/		%		%		Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	16-Jul	Change	17-Jul	Change		Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$    29.30		$     28.47	-2.83%		$              8,596	-0.15%		50 day still not out of question ($26.40)
EGO	9.20		9.21	0.11%		$              8,630	0.01%		Could be due for a little more pullback
GDX	38.33		38.64	0.81%		$            11,695	0.06%		Consolidating
GLD	91.98		91.93	-0.05%		$            10,573	0.00%		Over 20 & 50 days, but consolidating
IAG	10.05		10.22	1.69%		$            12,602	0.13%		10.60’s next resistance
MON	75.74		75.41	-0.44%		$              4,423	-0.01%		Pulled back, as expected.
NRP	22.89		23.12	1.00%		$              4,799	0.03%		Overbot, but still strong
PAAS	19.12		19.24	0.63%		$            11,556	0.04%		200 day @ 19.27
RGLD	40.59		40.67	0.20%		$            11,238	0.01%		Still under 20 & 50 day.
SLV	13.09		13.17	0.61%		$            10,699	0.04%		Back over 200 day, but overbot/.
SLW	8.39		8.48	1.07%		$              8,237	0.05%		$8.50 major resistance.
SSRI	18.76		19.15	2.08%		$            11,140	0.14%		Needs back over $19.
TBT	52.00		53.56	3.00%		$            10,669	0.19%		Will likely buy tomorrow on this pullback
TC	11.81		12.36	4.66%		$              5,798	0.16%		Getting ready to crank one out
TCK	20.03		21.06	5.14%		$            14,003	0.43%		JUST BTFO.  Likely consolidate now.
TZA	20.35		20.64	1.44%		$              4,159	0.04%		Prolly get some strength tomorrow
Cash (000)	$  26.42		$   26.42	0.01%		26,420.79	0.00%		Same
AVG (daily)				1.13%		$       175,236	1.17%
AVG (monthly)				4.03%		Actual
AVG (inception)				17.50%		Return	16.82%

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This is a far shortened version of the post I wrote last night that got eaten by WordPress, curse their bones. Apparently, not even the autosave was working last night.

In summary, yesterday was a bag full of fruity jelly beans and bottle rockets. The three I told you to watch — Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] , Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] and [[TBT]] were up some 8+%, 7+% and 5+%. They are still all buys here.

The silvers shocked me, many of them heading back over all the moving averages they had fallen below. But then silver always makes violent moves — it’s the Al Capone of the precious metal world. The silver Jacksons did well, with Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] — my favourite (sic) — doing the best at over 6% up, but in the personal holdings, non-Jackson junior [[EXK]] was the superstar, up over 14.2%.

I expect all the metals to have pullbacks today after yesterday, but I don’t think this was a headfake, either. I think the inflation numbers are starting to percolate. Remain cautious, but be sure to continue accumulating and filling out your well diversified list of juniors. These are lotto tickets (witness [[BAA]] as of late) and you just never know when they will come in. Another great example is Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] , hat tip to whomever reminded me of them again yesterday.

Gun to my head picks today include Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]], [[BAA]]  and more Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] . I will seek to start getting rid of my [[TZA]] today as well on any strength. Cash is starting to slow down the portfolio performance, as you can note from the relative performance numbers below. Have a great day.

Name/		%		%	Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	14-Jul	Change	15-Jul	Change	Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$      27.97		$         29.20	4.40%	$           8,816	0.23%		Winship
EGO	8.71		9.05	3.90%	$           8,480	0.20%		Ditto
GDX	36.76		38.29	4.16%	$         11,589	0.29%		$HUI bounce told the tale, to $43?
GLD	90.81		92.24	1.57%	$         10,608	0.10%		Above all the MA’s again, looks good
IAG	9.65		9.99	3.52%	$         12,318	0.26%		Winship
MON	74.70		76.46	2.36%	$           4,484	0.06%		A little overbought now, expect pullback
NRP	21.34		22.27	4.36%	$           4,622	0.12%		Decent volume move but now overbought
PAAS	18.24		19.30	5.81%	$         11,592	0.40%		Broke DT, back above consolidation zone
RGLD	39.54		40.51	2.45%	$         11,194	0.16%		Back over 200 day looking good
SLV	12.72		13.06	2.69%	$         10,609	0.17%		Nice one day move, POS = 13.33
SLW	7.88		8.41	6.73%	$           8,169	0.33%		Above downtrends now
SSRI	17.93		18.62	3.85%	$         10,832	0.25%		In consolidation zone, below all MA’s
TBT	50.63		53.19	5.06%	$         10,596	0.32%		Winship
TC	10.72		11.61	8.30%	$           5,446	0.27%		Extraordinary winship
TCK	17.15		18.46	7.64%	$         12,274	0.56%		Winship
TZA	23.99		21.28	-11.30%	$           4,287	-0.29%		Will ditch on break of $20, or sooner
Cash (000)	$       0.03		$       26.42	0.01%	26,420.79	0.00%		Same
AVG (daily)				3.27%	$     172,337	3.45%
AVG (monthly)				2.21%	Actual
AVG (inception)				15.35%	Return	14.89%

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There’s no discounting the genius of Andrew Lloyd Webber, no matter how much you may disdain the theatre (sic) and the Broadway musical genre in particular.   Let’s face it, the guy’s first real hit was a modernistic pop re-working of  a story from Genesis for goodness sake, and no, spratlings, I don’t mean a Phil Collins biopic.  You have to admit — that’s not exactly got “sure fire hit” written on it when you see it on cold, flat paper.   But that strange beginning launched the man’s career, and now he’s widely considered the best living writer for the musical stage, with hits like Jesus Christ Superstar, Evita, Phantom of the Opera, Sunset Boulevard and yes, even Cats under his belt.

The reason  I bring this all up, oddly enough, is that I was dragged to a community theatre (sic) production of Webber’s Joseph and The Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat this weekend where my niece was starring as a children’s chorus extra.  And oddly enough, it was fantastic.  I was thoroughly entertained. I guess that’s how I guage the worth of the intellectual property — if it’s still damn good after the semi-pros get though with it, then it must be some heady stuff. 

And I am no big fan of the Broadway stuff, either.  I lived in New York for years, but I had to be dragged to every “real” show, just like I had to be dragged to this one.   Go figure that I’d never been to a Lloyd Webber show even in the Apple.  Next time, I won’t be so reluctant.

_______________________

Another thing I haven’t been reluctant about is buying silver like the last man standing on two legs at a lycanthrope convention.    This 5-year weekly chart shows why:

As you can see, we’re within a hair’s breadth of the 200 week EMA, which as served as solid support through most of this bull in precious metals (save for the brief period of unpleasantness last Fall).

What’s more, we are very oversold on the slow stochastic, to a point we have not seen since the last time the PM bull was tested, back in 2006. Even more oversold than we showed in the depths of the Fall sell-off in almost every major asset!

I believe this is significant (even as MACD and RSI are not nearly as oversold), if at least for a bounce, and have put my money where my mouth is and bot some more [[AGQ]] as of Friday. I have room for 1,000 more shares, should silver decide to test that high $11 range again. This week’s increase in the Blees Rating (out of 100) to 72 from the previous week’s 66 tells me that commodity traders are taking off their short hedges once again, and readying for strength in the PM’s.

As I mentioned, I think that gold may also visit the $880-$890 range again, and I will be adding to select junior positions if we should be so lucky. Those of you who have not done so may want to take any opportunity to accumulate some physical (again, I like those Maple Leafs) under $900. I may do so myself.

Also, amazingly enough, [SLW] filled a gap that was formed back in March (20th-21st) when it was blasting off out of a consolidation pattern. All of it’s oversold indicators seem to be turning back up, save MACD.

Last, have look at Monsanto Company [[MON]] which is also ridiculously oversold on the weekly slow stochs, and is just a little bit beneath is’t 200 week EMA — the place where it’s been bouncing for the past year, including last Fall and this March. I think this might be a good place to accumulate with a tight-ish stop below the March lows ($69-ish).

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Sorry I haven’t been around to post pictures of ugly food, but I had to blow out of here real early tonight, as Bob Dylan and his Merry Band, along with Willie Nelson and John Commie Mellancamp were in town for a great five plus hours of rock & roll.  They were uniformly good, and Dylan was border line great tonight.   Pretty impressive for a 68 year old dude, living legend that he may be.

Willie is 76 which is just freaking incredible, given that he sounds exactly like he does on the radio.   Even John Commie Melons was pretty spry at 58.  Still, they could’ve dropped him from the team and not have had such an odd mix of iconic greats with aging boy popstar.   It makes one wonder — who will Bob tour with next, Vanilla Ice?

Because I just got back, and because I’m out all day tomorrow, there won’t be a Jacksonian Summary today.  Looking over the list, it’s a pottage of offal.  Down almost 3% today, with our money padrones, both gold (price $911.70/oz.) and silver (price $12.90/oz. ) getting beaten up in a summary back alley fashion, purportedly by Treasury Bond Salesman bearing Snidely Whiplash moustaches.

IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] was the worst of the lot, down over 8%.  I think that means we get a bounce tomorrow, given that there’s strong support at $9.00 (where we bounced today, btw).    I do think that the price of gold goes to $890 or so, here and that the miners are preceding that move.  

 Again, those of you who are lucky enough not to have a full position should be taking this opportunity to add at least some IAG here.   Yeah, we might see lower prices, but not three months from now.    This is stock that I believe will see at least $15 before the year is out, which is a 66% move from here.

The same can be said for Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , all bludgeoned today as well.   Again, nibble with a sidelong glance for the great cat named Treasury, but nibble nonetheless.   You shall soon bell that cat.

I expect we’ll get something of a bounce tomorrow — in almost everything — but again would not be surprised if there is some follow through drubbing on some of these, including even [[TBT]] .   I will be out, but may take the opportunity to dial in some more [[TZA]] on a rise tomorrow, just to continue hedging these summer doldrums.

Non-PM Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] got whacked today too, but I think we may get a bounce tomorrow thanks to our friends at Alcoa Inc. [[AA]] .

On my recent non-Jacksonians, [[BIOS]] can easily get back to $5.25 (its 20-day) and Health Grades, Inc. [[HGRD]] still looks very strong here.   Healthcare seems to be a continuing “safe haven” in this period.   Checkout Amgen, Inc. [[AMGN]] for reference.

_________________

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Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] is the strongest of the litter, here, and most of the precious still have work to do.  The silvers in particular are giving me agita, but only in that they are making me wait.

I bot some more Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] today as it tested its 38.2% fib, and [[PAAS]] and Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] had similar (though not as severe) pullbacks today.   Seasonally, we’ve entered into a slow period in the PM’s, but I am just not willing to sell anything right now, given the precariousness of the bond and dollar situation.   Sure, we could have more strength in both, but I just keep looking at the amount they have to sell this week (hat tip to Scum Bucket), and… well, let’s just say hard money is looking a lot more appetizing, and I’m getting ready to reload on more [[TBT]] . 

Of my non-Jackson’s Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] was actually a gold miner that was up today, and I’ve already mentioned that I increased my position in Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] .   Pretty soon I’m going to look like a gypsy Queen with gold and silver (and a touch of platinum, though I’ve yet to add to my starter position in [[PTM]] yet) dangling off my fingers, toes, ears and dreadlocks.

But that’s what our major theme is going to be here, folks, for the duration, so get used to it.  Soon, you’ll thank me for my persistent nagging.  In fact, it’s quite likely that someday, you’ll be adorning your children in “just 4 Kids” NY Giant paraphenelia in my honour (sic), and sending them off to college with tuition bills paid for in gold doubloons and pieces of eight.

I have every confidence.   All I need is the patience of a Bengal tiger in the deep brush on the annual Marlon Perkins’ Eat a Safari Tourist Day.  

Non PM picks I like, if you’re interested, include [[BIOS]] and Health Grades, Inc. [[HGRD]] here.   Best to you all.

Name/			%
Ticker	2-Jul	6-Jul	Change		Comments
ANDE	$                 30.89	$               29.67	-3.95%		Bounced off 20 day, sell on break $28.90
EGO	9.25	8.75	-5.41%		Closed a cent over the 50-day ($8.74)
GDX	38.31	36.94	-3.58%		Gapped down, doji’d, 200 day $35.94
GLD	91.25	90.76	-0.54%		POG $925 headed for $900?
IAG	10.34	9.93	-3.97%		Bounced off 50 day, patience, a keeper
MON	71.96	73.26	1.81%		Bounced as I suspected, but vol. sucks
NRP	20.77	20.70	-0.34%		Still oversold, but hanging in.
PAAS	18.22	17.83	-2.14%		Looking weak, still.
RGLD	41.52	39.04	-5.97%		Below 200 day EMA, looking weak
SLV	13.16	13.10	-0.46%		Oversold, but 200 week beckons (12.40)
SLW	8.40	7.75	-7.74%		Closed penny over the 38.2% retrace, I bot.
SSRI	18.79	18.20	-3.14%		Doji’d but could seek $17 one more time
TBT	50.73	50.94	0.41%		Looks ready to make a move
TC	10.36	10.07	-2.80%		Could target 50 day ($9.00)
TCK	16.09	16.88	4.91%		Chinese investment give a pop.
TZA	23.63	24.34	3.00%		Portfolio saver again, still 1/2 position
Cash (000)	$               13.44	$              13.44	0.01%		Same
AVG (daily)			-1.76%
AVG (monthly)			-1.14%
AVG (inception)			11.26%

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Something about today’s low volume isn’t really convincing me today. Perhaps I’ll be shown the fool, I dunno. I do know the dollar is still shaky here with [[UUP]] having a tough time reclaiming the ever important $24.00 mark, and DXY only about fifty cents north of $80. Until the currency firms, I’m not going to be doing any “panic Jaeger bombs” in Danny’s basement.

I will remain in the defensive today, even as certain Jacksonian’s thrive. Our newest addition Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] benefits today from a weekend announced Chinese Gov’t investment, which shows that the Red Chinese are more Jacksonian than the Red Democrats running our Fed and Fisc right now. What irony, no? Also, [[TBT]] is up today, which gives me pause with regard to the Armegeddon scenarios as well. One would think the [[TLT]] would be up today given the dire portents afoot, no? But it’s not. Also, the hedge [[TZA]] is serving its purpose again today.

As a result of my skepticism, in true Costanza fashion, I am taking advantage of the worse wounded Jackson today — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] — which has a intermediate term (10/25/08 lows to 6/4/09 highs) 38.2% fib retrace line at $7.74. Our lows today were $7.72, and we are now back at $7.74 as I type this. I bot another 2k at $7.82 all the same. I also got another 2k of Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] at $2.88 as I continue to believe this name will show M&A related relative strength as it has been.

As ever the caveats are in place, especially with SLW — for which I have an unnatural obsession. Purchase of either of these — especially today — will cause your Lance Armstrong “Live Strong” bullshit rubber bands to tighten in the sun, rendering your hands useless clubs for the duration.

_____________

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