AGQ (+3.75%)

EGO (+2.28)

EXK (+8.24)

GDX (+4.42)

IAG (+4.11)

PAAS (+1.28)

RGLD (+6.98)

SLV (+2.04)

SLW (+5.78)

SSRI (+7.41)

And newcomer (bot 10k @ $2.19 late day) — NGD  (+13.54) 

Non precious Jacksonians MON (+4.82) and TC (+3.36) did well today too.   

Ever onward — this PM revolution is not done by a long shot.

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UPDATE:  Looks like we will have a chance, however brief, to get into some of these silver (and gold) plays this morning if we have been remiss.  With my usual caution, I will wait until 10:00 am or so to see what the market looks like.   I will be looking specifically at the smaller caps, like EXK, ANV, EGO, NG, NXG, and even CDE and HL.

What the hell was going on with my silver and gold plays today?   Something sneaky I thinks, my preciousss, yes…. verrrrrry sneaky, it is, yessss! <Gollum>!

A lot of people who watch these things were commenting on the PPT and elsewhere about the noticeable surge in end of day trading on almost every major precious metal play, both gold and silver.   What people may not have noticed, however, was that a similar surge — of similar length (timewise) was going on in the 10 a.m. to 10:30 a.m timeframe in those same names.   Let’s take a gander at today’s [[SLW]] 5 minute daily chart as our first example:

First, let’s note that there are 78 5-minute periods in a trading day.   In most of these examples we are talking about only 8 or 9 of those periods, because of where this buying phenomenon was taking place.   What was notable for me was WHERE these buys were coming in.   Conventional trading wisdom tells us that “the big money”  — meaning the institutional traders– will generally make themselves known in the very beginning of the trading day and at the very end.  

The first period of activity here is right at the 10 a.m. hour which is not literally the very beginning of the trading day, but perhaps marks the period where most seasoned traders begin to take positions “after the morning shakeout.”    Given that this is a Monday, and we had a relatively large negative futures position trading at the open, this explanation of “wait and see” makes some logical sense.   The uniformity across the sector also gives some indication of a coordinated purchase here,  as there were very few large well traded names in the precious metal sector that did not see some kind of activity in the 10-10:30 area this morning.

Note also the last twenty minutes of the trading day.   We can ascribe some of this scramble to short covering, of course, but large late day purchases generally bode well for tomorrow’s trading in these instances.   I believe that is so because institutions are clearing the way here for more explosive action in the next few days.    Keep in mind that the four five-minute candles (or, 20 minutes in total) we see make up only 5.13% of the trading day, but are responsible for 10% of the shares traded.   Again, I think this is significant not only because of the volume, but because the rapid ascent and the sharp upturn of the A/D oscillator shown in these last twenty minutes also indicates that most of that volume was buying at the ask.

Let’s look next at fellow Jacksonian Silver pick  [[PAAS]] :

If anything, the two moves in PAAS are even more significant in both price and volume, compared to the rest of the day’s trading.  The four five minute candles from 10:10 to 10:30 a.m. comprised 13% of the day’s trading and reflect a large buying program, as the price ascended rapidly.    The rest of the day consisted of light volume pullback until again, the last tweny minutes gave way to almost 20% of the day’s trading, and another rapide ascent in price.   All tolled, those forty minutes (10% of the trading day) of buying accounted for one third of the daily trading, and again seemingly almost all “on the ask”  — figuratively, if not literally.  

Let’s look last at New Jacksonian Holding [[SSRI]] :

SSRI shows a full half hour of buying in the morning, again, starting at 10:10 and concluding at 10:40.   While this morning purchase was not market by the same volume as PAAS, it again shows the rapid ascent characteristics of a persistant buyer or buyers behind the bid.    That half hour comprised about 11.6% of the daily trading (in about 7.7% of the time) and the “afternoon session” was limited to a brief fifteen minute period that was marked by increased volume and another very rapid ascent.     In that fifteen minutes (less than 4% of the trading day) we saw over 12% of the daily buying.   Again, I think it’s clear we are talking about a concentrated interest here in this final burst.

In the interests of saving time and space, I won’t go through the Jacksonian gold positions that saw similar patterns today.   Interestingly, not all of the golds — particularly the smaller cap names (like [[EGO]] and [[ANV]] ) — saw the 10 a.m. buying, at least not in the same consistent fashion.   However, they all saw the late day surge in purchasing with ANV seeing a full 23.7%  of it’s daily buying (along with a 4.5% price move) in the final 15 minutes!

We find the same morning and afternoon program purchases that we saw in the silvers above in Jacksonian pick [[RGLD]], with 10% of the daily trading between 10 and 10:25 a.m. and another 15.5% in the final 20 minutes of trading.   [[GG]] shows a very similar pattern, as do many other of the “big golds” like [[AEM]].

I guess in conclusion I’d posit that there’s something afoot here, friends, and that you should be attending to your PM positions, as I think we may see a more significant move here in the coming days.   Of course, we may not, and all of this coincidental analysis could be the result of  my rampant apophenia due to excessive exposure to William Gibson novels.    Nevertheless, I believe this action bears consideration and careful attention.

Be well, friends and enemies.

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I don’t have a lot of time to mess around today, as I’ve got to catch a plane to Noo Yawk for a weddin’ this weekend.   I”ll have you know that I come from one of those “wide & deep” Irish families, and as a result have about 2,326 first cousins on my mother’s side, which also means most of my “vacations” from spring through December consist of going to a wedding somewhere.   Ah , well — you live with these things for family.

That said, I wanted to comment on a bit of prejudice against the purchase of silver and silver miners that I encountered on the PPT the other day — coming, to my surprise, from one of our better known bloggers (he shall remain nameless for dignity’s sake)….

(cough!)

(cough!)

(cough! cough! ack!)

Anyway, I wanted to leave this note for those who might be concerned about this lack of discretion, and warn you not to take heed.   This is the absolute best time to be accumulating silver and silver miners, as the Blees Rating (large money accumulators) is over 90 (out of 100), and the government is destroying our currency at a rate matched only by the rapidity with which ACORN has signed up phantom voters for the next election.   

Most important, you must not heed the prejudicial rumours (sic) posted by some that accumulating silver will give evidence  that you may be one of these:

Not that there’s anything wrong with dressing special on one’s free time.

And, yes, other stocks are doing well here and some better than the JCH.   That’s a good thing, and you should take this opportunity to convert some gains into harder assets.   Because believe me now and hear me later — when the time comes, silver will take off without warning, just as it has in the past — leaving many gaping in its wake.   You want to have set aside your store of acorns for the winter.

For review, I like PAAS, SLW, SSRI, SLV and a smidgeon of EXK and AGQ…. and please don’t forget get some hundred ounce bars of the physical as well.   Same goes for gold coins, and EGO and RGLD look nice here as well. 

Be well all,  and I’ll check back in tonight or via Crackberry earlier.

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Money is power, and in that government which pays all the public officers of the states will all political power be substantially concentrated.    — Andrew Jackson

What a great day for the Jacksonian Portfolio, no?   I felt like the Great Man re-born, breaching the lines of villainous (shorting) Redcoats with my trusty white charger, cutlass slashing down upon their ridiculous feathered bonnets, calling for my Horsed Kentucky Rifleman Sharpshooters to release another volley of musket upon their pasty-pale visages.  Triumph!

And what’s more it’s a triumph over fear, as well, for with our solid Jacksonian Core Portfolio, we know that these wins are not only for today, but will be substantiated again tomorrow.  For when the fickle winds of Washington change course again, and blow against our frail banking system’s walking corpse, rather than hold it aloft as it has, we will be prepared.    Hard money and assets will be our stores of value, no matter what our increasingly Zimbabwean central government  shall make of our paper printed with the General’s startled masque.

Today’s “core” wins — “early” wins, I call them — include PAAS (+6.82%), GDX (+5.97%), SLW (+ 3.03%) RGLD (+3.93%%), NRP (+3.68%), SLV (+2.89%) GLD (+1.46%)  and newcomer to the Core Portfolio: SSRI (+6.62).  

Of the Core that was involved in earnings tonight, we have TSO giving back strong wins from today (currently – 1.52% @ $17.53 in AH) and Mr. Anderson — ANDE — up large after hours (currently +13.95% @ $20.10 in AH).  You will recall that I sold the $17.50 June calls on TSO two days back, as I felt it was getting overextended.   I will likely close that position tomorrow, at profit.    I still retain my unhedged position in ANDE.     Other Core holdings that were down slightly today include MON (-0.88%) which needed a breather, and TC (-0.91%), whose 7 cent pullback today was also not unexpected after many days of gains.

Other non-core silver and gold plays I am currently invested in include EGO (+3.69), ANV (+3.82%),  and EXK (+4.85%).    Last, recent recommendation ATHR (-1.16%) was also off a bit.    On the oil front, I bailed on all but a stub of my triple earl ERX (+10.71%) at just under $34.00, as that was where a significant fibonacci line lay, and I’ve learned to respect the fibs on these fast moving triple ETF’s.  

 I am still bullish on our friend Earl, however, as I have been since Fly cursed his name.   My two “core holdings”  — which may soon be nominated to the Jacksonian Core — are PBR (+2.93%)  and OXY (6.66%) , the best of two nations, in my humblest opinions.

I must admit to revelling in some of Fly, RC and CA’s crazy picks today (among them SONS, and FLOW), and I even jumped into one of my own (ABK)  — it is fun to make hay while the SONS is shining, after all.   But make no mistake, these discretionary picks are a tiny portion of my portfolio.   For like the leaves of summer, these high flyers will soon fade, as will our newly reinvigorated “saved” banks.   We must always be girded with our Jacksonian Core to withstand the coming tsunami, and we will continue to build on that foundation as we jog onward.   My best to you all, and keep building! 

Important: Hat tip and my thanks to Trader Caddy and to Chanci for the suggestions on SSRI and EXK,  respectively.  

Aside: If I could tell you to get into one sector in the coming weeks, my friends, silver would lessen my worries for you and yours.

________________

UPDATE: I decided it would be almost hypocritical of me to urge silver on my blogreaders w/out taking at least a small position in AGQ (Proshares Double Silver) .

Or that could just be me rationalizing my inner Yukon Cornelius.  

You make the call.     That said, I’m picking up some AGQ here @ $42.87.

UPDATE:  Picked up a little more at $ 43.55  

Caveat:  VERY VERY VOLATILE!  If you buy any of this crazy stuff, there’s a 73% probability you will be drafted to become intergalactic Herald to a very large planet eating sub-god, with little sense of humor, and you may lose your pension.

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There are many reasons that we must prepare our portfolios for more stormy weather, Jacksonians, and the increasingly dangerous interplay of our Federal government in the formerly “private” sector, whether it be for alleged “stimulus” or “rescue,” is one of the most foreboding.

Case in point — there has been a lot of back and forth on the iBC blogs recently regarding the Chrysler re-organization plan, and the Federal Government’s role — reaching all the way to the White House — in “negotiating” the terms of the deal.    For sure the Republicans opened the door to this heretofore unprecedented interference with the perfidy of Lex Luthor (remember him?) and his banking pals, but the Obama Administration has really gotten into the swing of things, pirouetting from control of the financial institutions (ie, “the TARP losers”) to attempting to rig the already down on it’s heels U.S. auto industry.   

 In the latest news we hear that Obama’s people are attempting to “cram down” senior Chrysler bond holders in a less than typical fashion — by inserting unsecured creditors– specifically the UAW labor union — in front of senior bond holders.   There’s a very heartfelt — and angry — attack on this land grab found in this article, written by  “Evil Hedge Fund Manager (TM)” Clifford Asness of  ($20 bn) AQR Capital Management, who is not a party to these proceedings, but has a pretty good idea of where such machinations will end, and so has stepped forward in print.   Here’s a cogent excerpt from the piece (highlights mine):

Bankruptcy court is about figuring out how to most fairly divvy up the remaining assets based on who is owed what and whose contracts come first. The process already has built-in partial protections for employees and pensions, and can set lenders’ contracts aside in order to help the company survive, all of which are the rules of the game lenders know before they lend. But, without this recovery process nobody would lend to risky borrowers. Essentially, lenders accept less than shareholders (means bonds return less than stocks) in good times only because they get more than shareholders in bad times.

The above is how it works in America, or how it’s supposed to work. The President and his team sought to avoid having Chrysler go through this process, proposing their own plan for re-organizing the company and partially paying off Chrysler’s creditors. Some bond holders thought this plan unfair. Specifically, they thought it unfairly favored the United Auto Workers, and unfairly paid bondholders less than they would get in bankruptcy court. So, they said no to the plan and decided, as is their right, to take their chances in the bankruptcy process. But, as his quotes above show, the President thought they were being unpatriotic or worse.

Let’s be clear, it is the job and obligation of all investment managers, including hedge fund managers, to get their clients the most return they can. They are allowed to be charitable with their own money, and many are spectacularly so, but if they give away their clients’ money to share in the “sacrifice”, they are stealing. Clients of hedge funds include, among others, pension funds of all kinds of workers, unionized and not. The managers have a fiduciary obligation to look after their clients’ money as best they can, not to support the President, nor to oppose him, nor otherwise advance their personal political views. That’s how the system works. If you hired an investment professional and he could preserve more of your money in a financial disaster, but instead he decided to spend it on the UAW so you could “share in the sacrifice”, you would not be happy.

Asness goes on to mention how damaging such action can be to the fabric our capitalist system, and not just specifically to the non-TARP lenders who are holding out against the Obama Plan.   If the “government” starts taking sides in otherwise quotidian corporate restructurings, what trust will the private sector — not just hedge funds, but any large investor pools — have in any government or union associated businesses going forward?   

And how will that affect the pricing of their securities?   

From the standpoint of M&A valuation, unions are already anathema to private capital and tie a huge millstone around the neck of even the best companies who are saddled with organized labor.    This kind of side-picking will only drive those businesses’ long term equity values — and subsequent ability to grow — down even more.   

For a test — just ask yourself: would you buy a car built by a company largely owned by the Federal government and the UAW?   Even if you were sympathetic to the Obama Administration’s aims?  

 In the 1930’s this sort of corporate-government collusion led to fascism in a number of the “enlightened” European countries.   I’m not saying we are going down that path, only that we are looking at another major strike to the economy if we allow the government to continue to treat the sources of private capital as second class citizens, their legal standing be damned.  

Because the first tenet of capitalism is “Capital is Mobile” my friends, and it will fly to other pockets of investment where the risk-return parameters are more in balance if it feels threatened on these shores.      The President may discover this principle too late, much to his chagrin, and our own.

In the meantime, Jacksonians, as small investors,  all we can do is listen to Fly’s Goat’s singing admonition, and “be prepared*:”

 [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nJOY0P84v4 450 300]

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*(TBT, GLD, SLV, SLW, PAAS, EGO, RGLD, NRP, etc., etc., etc. )