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While the Samurai Seven 2012 picks continue to do well, with a 7.5% annual return thus far, not all of them are rising in concert.   Pabst Blue Ribbon (PBR), which has recently switched from selling shitty beer to becoming a monopoly owner of Brasilian (sic) earl assets (good choice, there), is my big winner with a 20.5% YTD return.   Ironically, my lagger, and only negative return thus far at (2.20%) down is another earl and natty producer and mover, Conoco (COP).  Much to their chagrin, they are actually forced to compete with other earl and natty gas companies in the U.S. and abroad.   I still like them, however, and their 3.7% dividend is a nice cushion here as well.

My other two strong returners of the SamSeven are in the agricultural space, John Deere (DE) and Monsanto (MON).  They are returning 12.4% and 15.2%, respectively, this year, not counting dividends.  My “stock of the year” pick, UPS, is muddling along, still trying to break that $75 ceiling and returning 2.9% before dividends thus far.

That leaves my two “precious” picks, of the SamSeven, AG and RGLD, which are treading water as well, at 3.2% and 0.6%, respectively for the year.   As you know, these two are dear to my heart, and I think, after a rough 2011, the PM’s will be ready to move out once again this year, thanks to our friends in Washington with the printing presses. 

Remember, this is an election year and the Fed’s Primary Directive, not unlike that of the StarFleet Federation is — “don’t rock the flagging boat.”  Whomever wins or loses in November, the Fed doesn’t want any of the blame to come to its door if it can help it.  They know, in the end, where their bread is buttered, and they sure don’t want to give Mr. Ron Paul any more ammo in a year when he’s got a tiny little bully pulpit.  Ironically, they can achieve that by printing like there’s no tomorrow. 

So what I’m watching for right here is the important “Line of Death” for the U.S. Dollar — at $81.50, which you may recall is where I predicted the dollar would stall and therefore set the market running.   Well, we banged up a little past that mark last week, and have since turned down.  Now we meet some important resistance at the $79.50-$80.00 level.    If the DX-Y fails there, it’ll be risk on, across the board, and I think the precious metals will be ready to take off in a much bigger way.

Until then, I’ll be wary, and doing much of nothing except perhaps trimming the sails here and there.   I hope to put up that long term monthly dollar chart this weekend,  to illustrate the importance of that “Line of Death.”

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Aside — I’m not a Gingrich fan as many of you know.  However, I have to admit, I’m baffled by the turpitude of the mainstream media in pushing this transparent re-hash of his divorce just days before an important primary election.   I mean, I almost have to think this is some kind of bizarre set up to give Newt an easy foil.

Could CNN really be that dumb?  I literally felt like I was watching an outtake of Idiocracy last night when the first question that blinking fool asked in the Presidential debate was about a 20 year old divorce battle.  Seriously CNN?  You call yourself a news organization?  Then what is The National Enquirer?

Really… almost too easy for the Newtster.  Stick a fork in the MSM, they are looking a bit overdone about now.

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 Whattayou tawkin’ about? I only had fie’ vodkas!

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Actually, Rick Pitino, disgraced coach of the Louisville Cardinals basketball team, was born in Manhattan and ended up going to high school at St. Dominic’s in Oyster Bay, Long Island (high cotton).  In other words, he’s not the gomatta (sic)- slinging gangster he’s made himself out to be these last ten years in Louisville, bulgy eyes and dark double-breasted suits aside.  He’s actually kind of soft to tell the truth.

How else can anyone explain a 31-point Cardinal loss to the crappy Providence Friars, a team from a city some claim is in Rhode  Island, which is allegedly a member of the Union wedged into New England somewhere.  Rumor is that the Friars are not named after the chicken tenders crew at Popeyes at all, but in fact a clerical sect known for celibacy, stinky beer and infrequent group bathing.  I’m awaiting confirmation and will get back to you when my investigators complete their report.

In any case, I’m tired of it.   In seeking some resolution, I’ve assembled a crew of recently released minor felons who will accost Rick at the Standiford Field Airport and bundle him into a black limousine headed for Bushwick, Brooklyn.   Upon arrival, Rick will be stripped down to his wife beater tee and skivvies and instructed not to return until he’s brought back a set of rabbit ear antennae from the local Robert P. Moses housing project.

Rick needs to get his “mojo” back, and  find that inner hard ass that will terrify these young men into perfoming on the hard court like a Pitino team of old.  I’m only doing what I can in the most exigent and dire of circumstances.

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I will be looking to lighten up tomorrow on some of these positions that are up so far in this year.   The dollar is rebounding as I type, and while gold and silver are staying upright, I think they are due for a pullback and I will therefore trim accordingly.   I suggest you set tight stops on ANY green action tomorrow.  3-5%, tops.

My best to you.

 

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpA_5a0miWk 450 300]

Quite possibly the “Best Music/Worst Video” combination of all time

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At the end of the Sir Thomas Malory’s Le Morte d’Arthur, the famed British hero King Arthur is transported back to an enchanted island to recover from his mortal wounds after the Battle of Camman  and perhaps be frozen in time for the next time England might need it’s hero king.

Some say he did come back– as Mick Jagger, or more likely the closer kin — Welshman Tom Jones– but that’s only idle speculation.  The important bit to remember here is that enchanted isle was called “Avalon, the Island of Fortune. ”   Some of you who are on The PPT may think sometimes that all of my picks have gone to a magical island to recover from their mortal wounds.  Perhaps they too will reappear someday when Chess or Rage or le Fly are having a bit of a dry spell.

That too may be idle speculation, but in the meantime, there’s a rare earth metal stock that I’ve been accumulating as of late, now to the tune of 30 kilotons, mostly in the low to mid $2 range.  It is of course called Avalon (AVL), and may finally be revealing itself as the font of good fortune I expected after many a day of bouncing around like a malfeasant pinball.

You’ll note in the chart below, that I marked an original consolidation point upon which I thought AVL might rest for a bit after rallying off it’s lows in October, hitting resistance at the old breakdown point (about $4) in early November, and then making a higher low in late November.

As the stock rallied back above that mid-consolidation line in early December, you will recall that I expected it to base there on the consolidation line.  Well that didn’t happen, at least not for very long, and the stock actually began breaking down again.  It eventually broke down below the “higher low” area all the way to the October lows before rallying once again on strong volume.   Note all that progress in the chart below:

Now the question begs — did we just experience a double bottom in these cursed rare earth metals?  If you look at REE, your answer might surely be “hells yes!”  Checking QRM, however, and you might consider the jury still in the anteroom.

What I can see, however, from the above chart is that we have some pretty helpful guideposts available.  If what we’re seeing on the past two high volume days has been the first two legs of the three white soldier candlestick pattern, we’ll see AVL‘s price burst above that consolidation line that so effectively served as our ceiling today.   Since this is a bullish reversal pattern, it should mean continuation after a bit of consolidation, so we might venture some additional buying in that case.

If however we do not get any follow through on the last two days momentum, we know that the consolidation line is acting as resistance.  If we really do have a double bottom pattern here, then we likely will not see another low below the most recent “DB” lows, and you’ll rather have a “rest,” followed by a final break of the resistance.  Given the volume of the last two days, I think that’s the more likely bet.

As an aside… my “Magnificent 7” 2012 picks, including Pick of the Year UPS, as well as AG, COP, DE, MON, PBR and RGLD, are up 5.9% collectively so far this year, and that’s not including dividends, which on some of those can be a significant sweetner.   MON is in the lead as far as top performers, with 12.5%, followed by AG and PBR with 8.5% each.  My two laggards are UPS and COP, with 0.4% and o.1% returns, respectively, thus far this year.  This does not include either stock’s phat dividends of course.

I’m going to be in and out the rest of the week, meeting with buyers, so I may be scarce, but will endeavor to visit at least in the evenings.   My best to you all.

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I’m on the road again, folks, so this is going to be a rant free review of a recent pick.  It’s been a little bit over a week since I put this blog post out showing what levels I was looking for to mark a Monsanto (MON) to make a Monster breakout.   If you recall, the original weekly chart looked like this:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now look at what that weekly chart looks like only a few trading days later:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While there’s still plenty of room left for this to run on the weekly (note the circled stochastics), I think the ceiling is here very soon for the near term as you can note on the daily below:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Depending on how much of a pullback we get in the near term (if the dollar takes off, for example) we may drop back enough to fill that gap.  Keep in mind, however that the more likely pullback will be the 61.8% fibonacci line on the weekly ($74.88).

Best to you all!

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There’s something symmetric about this year’s number “2012” isn’t there?  February 2nd, 12th, 20th and 22nd and December 2nd, 12th, 20th, and 22nd are going to be kind of cool for numbers geeks looking for auspicious dates upon which to get married or receive ass tattoos, perhaps.   Maybe the Mayans will come through with a nice atmosphere sucking asteroid strike on one of those days as well?   That would be special, no?

Anyway, without much further ado, I will set forth some of my predictions for the next 365 days, should we get all of them…

• The Giants will luck their way into the playoffs thanks to the incompetence of the 2011 NFC East, and because God wants to punish the Ryan Brothers.  They will lose in the first round to the far more deserving Atlanta Flackons (sic).
• Jerry Jones will publicly admonish, but keep his Ginger Head Coach, Jason Garrett.
• Rick Santorum will come in second to Mitt Romney in the Iowa Caucuses, and then gain enough momentum to place a distant second to Romney in New Hampshire.
• Santorum wins in a tight race in South Carolina, prompting Romney to offer him the Veep slot two months prior to the convention in order to lock down the wary evangelical vote.
• Tim Pawlenty’s head explodes simultaneous with Pat Robertson’s.  Pawlenty for “woulda shoulda coulda”  because he dropped out too early,  and Robertson upon realizing the GOP is running a Mormon-Catholic ticket.
• The New Orleans Saints win the Superbowl over the New England Patriots in Indianapolis.
• Indianapolis (Colts) take Andrew Luck with the first round pick and keep Peyton Manning… for now.
• The U.S. dollar peaks at $81.50 on the DX-Y Index, and proceeds to break down below the April ’08 lows (sub- $72.00) by September.
• Gold breaks $2,000.00 by April, followed by Silver breaking its old highs in May.
• With the drop in the dollar, and the prospect of the end of the Obama Error, the market goes dipschit, peaking at 14,000 in the Dow and 1700 on the S&P before everyone realizes we’re running on fumes, and we sell off after the 2012 elections.
• The 2012 Presidential Election if one of the nastiest on record.  Obama drops his class warfare rhetoric as a losing strategy and takes on the First Victim status.  David Axelrod wheels out mystery women on Mitt Romney and the Veep candidate (presumably, Santorum).
• Sarah Palin is a lighting rod, playing the black hat for the GOP, pointing out every government takeover and socialist move passed over the last five years (including the last two years of the Bush Administration).  Obamacare will become a millstone on the President’s neck as more unintended consequences arise, and the forced coverage purchase laws are declared un-Constitutional.
• The Euro stays a viable currency, but Greece, Spain and Portugal drop out of the union.   Italy’s and Ireland’s banking system are saved by British and German investors and stays in the European Union with new manacles.
• President Obama becomes increasingly disassociated with his re-election and by the time he loses to Romney in November, he will have convinced himself — and his true believers — that he will be a more effective member of the Democrat party out of office.

• Romney’s acceptance speech will be affable and conciliatory, hoping to mend the divisiveness of the past six years.  Neither the Tea Party nor the Hard Left will be very happy about the results
• Besides UPS, my best picks of the year will be COP, MON, AG, RGLD, DE and PBR.

And now, the kickoff!   Happy New Year and Geauuuuux Giants!

 

 

 

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December is not just a month for Holiday Good Cheer, drunken egg nog slopping and impulsive last minute shopping, it’s also the greatest month — seasonality wise — for that beautiful savior of Third World agronomies everywhere — Monsanto (NYSE: MON).  As you long term readers may recall, MON is a long favored Jacksonian that has been undergoing a significant consolidation period,  not unlike that of the recently reinvigorated gold play, AUY.

The PPT tells us that MON‘s December trading indicate an 84% positive ratio, which is significant enough.  What’s more monthly returns in December are averaging +5.6% over the last 12 years, including  down months.   Here’s the good part — we’re down over 3.7% this month since we closed November 30th at  $73.45 (closing price today — $70.72).   That means if we get our traditional late month Santa Claus rally — as pointed out by my friend Woodshedder in his blog post the other day, then we could be talking close to a 10% expected return between here and the end of the month.

Now take a look at this long term weekly chart.   Note how obvious our resistance level is here?

At $74.64, that line in the sand is only 9.5% away from here.    Let’s make that our target, shall we?   If we break through it, all well and good, because that will indicate substantial continuing momentum on this Hippie Hater.  Otherwise, we have a target with a nice return for the end of the month.

In any case, I continue to think MON should be in your core holdings, until someone comes along that can compete with their deep-seeded (heh) IP portfolio and market dominance in the ag space.   I don’t think that will be coming any time soon.

Best to you all, Green Revolutionaries (the good one, not the pinko one).

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