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Two things of interest this Sunday evening, if you want to stay off the political stuff, that is…

One, our favorite silver stocks have lots of room to run here, and if you’ve missed the boat previously, or disembarked prematurely, there should be plenty of gangplank for you to re-join the pirate party going forward.

EXK is one of my favorites, since I started talking about it back in the $3 range.   It’s amazing how it was nearly given up for dead recently in the big Silver Reversal of 2011, and yet, if you look at it on the weekly, it’s not really had such a drastic downturn after all.   In fact, some historians might call this “a healthy pullback.” Check out this weekly chart if you don’t believe me:

I have another Jacksonian I was watchingbubble up last week, and one I’ve told you to own for the long term, as in “passed down to the grandkids.”  And no, I don’t mean RGLD this time, although you should hold onto that one too.

No this one is the most hated of the hippies who have decided they are going to keep organic (that means fertilizing with cow dung and pushing a plow behind a team of oxen) as their “gold standard,” the poverty stricken populace be damned.   Let them eat heirloom tomatoes, I guess?   In any case, there’s a company that’s looking to feed the world through more robust and pest resistant crop yields, and it just happens to have enough IP in it’s coffers to pull that high bar achievement off.

The company is Monsanto  (MON), and it’s looking like it wants to breach some serious resistance here  on the long term weekly.  There is no resistance more powerful — or support more strong — than at the 61.8% long term Fibonacci line.  This is a significant line for those looking to go long AND short this stock this week:

As ag stocks seem to be taking off, you want to keep an eye on this one, especially if it manages to break that fib barrier this week.  My best to you all, even the hippies.

 

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RabhcwuTjAo 450 300]

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We’re getting into the gambling season, boys and girls.  Not just the annual March Madness, which is pure nirvana for we college hoop fans, but we’re also starting to talk Derby Prep racing, and even some golf course skins.

What better time, then to start pushing “all in” while everyone else is scurrying under rocks and diving for cover?  Listen, I have friends in Japan, people I went to school with, so I don’t mean to disregard this great tragedy, or diminish it’s human impact.  But if you think the market is turning because of Japan, or becase of Wacky Quadaffi, or for any other exogenous reason, you need to start thinking about a good index fund, and maybe concentrating on your brackets.

Listen close, as this may be one of the last few times you’re blessed with the benefit of my counsel.   You have very little time left to get your portfolio right, and I’m a very busy, busy man.   You’ve been running around, like a man in a wifebeater tee shirt with an insane clown posse tatto on your right shoulder, and you’ve been buying “the hot thing,”  “the sexy thing,” and let’s face it, “the easy thing.”  This game is not meant to be easy.  It’s meant to be a bare nekkid, blind folded race through a maze full of knee-high bear traps snapping away at your bag.

It’s time to stop screwing around.  This market is very close to getting that last bit of string pushed out, and you are better off closing out all your positions and going to cash like Scottie than continuing to chase every fleeting fancy sparkler in these latter waning days.

Needless to say, I’m not going to cash, though I did raise some today.  How?  By selling out the remainder of my non-PM, non-core plays.   I made the exception by keeping a little bit of hedged MON and UPS, but everything else that does not glitter or end up in the tank of my car is now gone.   And even my earl plays are very minimal.  I’ve got a little bit of ERX and a little bit of PBR and a smidgeon remaining of OXY.   Everything else — gone.

I will likely take some of that cash and use it for some additional leverage, probably for in-the-money calls on GDX, GDXJ and SLW.   These are more liquid PM option plays, and I don’t plan to be in them very long, but I will know when to climb into them.  It will be when the hammer below breaks through the glass flooring that has become so brittle… so brittle:

Print this page out, tape it to the top of your moniter, and refer to it frequently whenever you get the urge to purchase something frivolously. 

My best to you all, really.

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I immediately went down to see what’s been keeping Danny from blogging…

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Since I was experiencing a cataclysmic Vitamin-D overproduction cycle out here in SoCal, the last sunny place left in America, I decided to come inside and see what the heck was going on with this market.  For one thing it closes at 1:00 out here, so the hippies have many hours with which to purchase pot and snugly pack their bongs before the 6 O’Clock news.  Odd, no?

Well, it turns out that despite my hedging and raising large amounts of cash, my portfolio continues to metastisize.   In fact, metaphorically, it looks like a large Engine No. 9 freight locomotive going down the slope of Mt. Pilot, with all it’s air and hand breaks on full stop.   I’m showering enough sparks off the railbed to tetch a bonfire, but I’m still moving forward.  

I don’t mind giving up some of that opportunity cost, however, because we’re trying to be responsible with our cash over here at the JakeGint Blog of Low(er) Grade Mental Disorders.  Here, we go by the semi-paranoid thesis that Mr. Market is trying to steal your wallet every second of every day.   So if that means we don’t partake in his reindeer games to the fullest extent allowed by California law, but we return home with all ten of our fingers attached and facing in the proper direction, then we’ve properly schooled you in the tenets of risk management.

Right now, reindeer games are accelerating already large wins in such Dogberts as FTK, QSURD, ENTR, and AVL.  If you have not taken profits in any of these, I would at least recommend a relatively tight stop.  As well, while the miners are beginning to stall (as predicted), other Jacksonians, like MON, ANDE, TCK and TC continue to push along oblivious to the divergences and breadth problems we’re seeing popping up all over.

And here’s my real problem… the Gold Bug Index $HUI has broken through some significant support here (the 20 and 50 day EMAs) and is now trying to rally back above those levels again.  Here’s the thing… I don’t think it can until it tests the 200 day EMA again like it did in the last major cycle down, back in July.  For those of you who are not as concerned about the PM market, a breakdown in the $HUI will usually give you 5 to 10 days to get the heck out of the rest of the market too.  

How long will I hold to this thesis you axe (sic)?   Until we clear that green line atop the circular bodies on the right in the above chart.   Only then will I say, “You have passed the test, $HUI, well done!”

More live pics of Danny to come…. best to you all.

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And Yes, Rex Grossman Was Screwed, Too
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Didn’t take long for the first of my semi-facetious predictions to fail did it?  Well it did, and my Giants, despite winning today over a semi-revitalied Rex Grossman-led Redskin team, were drubbed out of the playoffs by the Green Bay Fudge Packers, who beat them this week and dah Bears (see above) today.

There’s nothing like just missing the playoffs to make for the worst of all possible worlds.   Despite a 10-6 record, my team will be on the sofa next weekend, and — adding insult to injury — will likely keep the Angry Leprechaun, Tom Coughlin and his offensive (in the literal sense) coordinator, Captain Kangaroo Kevin Gilbride in the driver’s seat for at least another year.   The final coup de grace — we’ll get a crappy “playoff level” draft pick because there will be playoff teams that have worse records picking behind us. 

I guess I will become a Jet fan for the few short weeks for it to take them to snuffed out by Eli’s older brother or some similar such ignonimy.  Gosh knows there’s no one in the NFC honorable enough to root for, and I am beginning to really despise the Packers, I’ll have you know.

But never as much as Dawg Killah and the Eagles, no fear.

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As for me, I ended the year up a gigantaload.  So much so, compared to year end 2009, that you’d probably not even believe me, so I won’t boast about it.  Suffice it to say that I was still piling on win in huge amounts even on the last day of the year, despite being about 40% hedged and having about 30% in cash.   Ironically, my largest single gain on December 31st was Monsieur’s FTK, which I do believe I shall keep for a while, ovah heah.

I also believe AVL — the old Avalon Metals now on the Amex Exchange — will continue to shine it’s bizarre functional-if-rare metallic lights on my precious laden portfolio.   I will have more to say on the rare earths as we move forward– I am digging diligently as you read this…

Without question silver will continue to shine, and SLW, PAAS, SSRI, MVG, SVM, CDE, HL, and yes EXK will continue to shine.   I will let you know when I will begin piling in on a leveraged basis soon enough.  I think the dollar remains on the edge of the knife (it is rallying as I type this), but until it breaks, I will remain positioned as I am.

We will also look into the ags, and I think it is time to re-recognize the farmer Jacksonians — ANDE and MON again, as strong picks going forward.  TC and TCK, the molybdenum brothers, should also perform here.

I haven’t posted the Jacksons as of late, but if you were to have held them since this blog’s inception (May 1st, 2009), you’d be up 125% right now, and that’s with a negative return on both MON and TBT, both of which I urge you to continue to accumulate this year.  

Stick with me kid, we are going places in 2011….

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For now, at least.    It looks the dollar has bottomed for now, and as a result, I will likely be dumping the rest of my AGQ tomorrow.  I will also continue to sell down my overweight positions in EXK, SLW and yes, GSS (which I am overweight for stupid reasons).  Some ANV will go, as well as some IAG and EGO too.  Not a tonne, but I will be raising cashe (sic) munny (sic).

I will also likely sell some other things tomorrow which look overbought despite their not being in the precious metal category.  I shall tell the good gentlepeople of The PPT about that before I make those moves known here in Pikerdome.

What won’t I be selling?   That I will let you know… lucky dogges.   I will not be selling any UPS.

I will not be selling any UL.

I will not be selling any MON.

And I will NOT be selling any TBT.    In fact, I may even add to the latter.

Best to you all, and Merry Kwaanza, Fonzies.

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We spent all day tightroping the edge of the knife, with the dollar up over $81.15 at one point, and looking to scratch it’s way back to another resistance level at $82 (see yesterday’s chart).

I am eating samitch after samitch whilst trying to get transactions done in my real-world job before the arrival of Santa and his hated Year-Ending Elves.  These elves are characterised (sic) by their size 15 purple Chuck Taylor sneakers and black leather jackets.   The come to destroy your year end payouts by crashing deals or worse — extending them over the dreaded January 1st barrier, where goblins dwell, stretching their cold emaciated hands out to offer only sauer kraut on cool buns — and no dog, hot or otherwise.

But I won’t bore you with all that trouble.   Suffice it to say I’m busy, and I don’t like what the tragically unhip North Koreans have been doing to my dollar, especially combined with the large selling on strength in the SPY’s that we saw today.

Right now the dollar is banging once again at the $81.00 level, even after it fell off in late day trading today to flirt with the high 80.60’s.   I’m afraid I won’t be quite right until I see it disappear below the waves of $80 for good, which may not be for another week now, given the friskiness the mentally challenged greenback bulls have exhibited here.

So I may actually dump my calls for reals tomorrow, but I may also eat a samitch.   Whatever the case, given today’s selling on strength, if I see the dollar threaten rain again, I will be clearing out of almost everything but my PM positions, with the exception of MON and UPS.  

When it rains we must be ready with the bumbershoot, wot?

Bless you and keep you.

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