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Blankity Blanking Dollar

No pics today and probably for the rest of the week, until Vincenzo hoses the rest of the marinara gravy from the insides of the server box.  Today it’s just going to be a blank day, as that’s as good as any for a day when my language was pretty regularly depicted — old timey-style — by whirling spirals, jumpy stars, cock-eyed exclamation points and the 1950’s film noir tough guy utterance–  “blankity blankin’ blankity blank!!”

Only I wasn’t talkin’ about no dames, see?

No I was talking about the hard money portfolio that is your dear General Jackson’s.   We got shelled like Francis Scott Key’s famous banner at Fort McHenry.   Part of the reason was the undeniable strength in the dollar.   [[UUP]] , our proxy, was still spiking toward the end of the day.  The other part was the rush to the exits by all the Late-Comer Charlies that climbed aboard the magical precious metal bus last month only to depart in a frightened huff early in this one.

They must have forgotten that we’rein  a bull market right now, and it’s in the “money” that does not easily squander. 

They must have forgotten also that bulls, in the opposite manner of sleepy bears and their Siren’s rallies, try their damndest to take as few folk as possible with them on their ride to massive gains.   These last two days’ bronco riding are ample evidence of that.   So are we going to get pistol whipped off this bull like a bunch of mewling woosies,  merely because we’ve been bootstomped something sore?

No, we are not.   In fact, as I reported, I took this opportunity to grab some more double silver — [[AGQ]] today when it bounced off it’s long term 38.2% fib and it’s short term 61.8% fib in the $43.70 area.    I am prepared to add one more time should we see additional weakness tomorrow.    I am liquidating more frivolous holdings in order to ready myself.

In the meantime, you lucky ducks who were late to last months party are beginning to see some juicy bargains.   Nibble stealthily here, like a Persian guinea pig inside the mink lined trunk of a ’36 Bugatti, at each of the Jacksonians.   None is more attractive right now than SSRI, which, were I paying closer attention, I would have grabbed more of today, despite my already full plate in the name. 

As you know I’m particularly fond of silver and think it egregiously undervalued here, with gold once again at almost 66 times the price of silver.   So I will buy SLW, SSRI and PAAS first,  but note my maunderings below in the notes section of the JCHP Report — almost everything is now on sale.   I say that because we pulled back even further than I thought on the weekly and exactly to the trend line on the daily today (part of my reasoning for buying AGQ). 

hui_dailyii

Look at that strike of the trendline.   And also note the oversold condition of the stochs.    I’ll be looking to reap and gather tomorrow in the fields of Jackson. 

And here’s today’s bloody Jacksonian Core Holdings Portfolio results:

Name 12-Jun 15-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $    29.79  $    28.83 -3.22%   High top doji, second day of rest.
EGO          8.79          8.28 -5.80%   Could see $8 again, but good support @ $8.15
GDX        39.54        37.97 -3.97%   Strong support at 37.50, ideal entry.
GLD        92.17        91.10 -1.16%   POG only down a little more than $7 –
IAG          9.85          9.25 -6.09%   Egregiously oversold, closed on the ST trendline
MON        86.54        84.97 -1.81%   Low volume down day, still on ST trend
NRP        23.85        22.99 -3.61%   Still on uptrend, 38.2% fib @ 22.05
PAAS        22.04        20.95 -4.95%   $19.80 is the 38.2% retrace.  Support @ 20.70
RGLD        42.64        41.81 -1.95%   Low volume down day, stopped on 13 wk EMA
SLV        14.63        13.83 -5.47%   PO Silver on 50 day EMA right now ($14.14)
SLW        10.05          9.25 -7.96%   LT 38.2% retrace is $9.00 — prime entry
SSRI        21.95        19.92 -9.25%   Up to $20.27 in AH.  That’s the trend line.
TBT        56.59        55.49 -1.94%   The least of my concerns.
TC        11.76        11.05 -6.04%    $10.81 is 38% retrace.  Tapped today.
TSO        14.98        14.98 0.00%   Have you thought of his replacement yet?
AVG (daily)   -4.21%    
AVG (monthly)   -6.76%    
AVG (inception)   17.02%    

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Gold for Your Ice Cream Cone

Mmmmmmmmmm….. Deeee-licious!

Looks like our friend “Baby $HUI” — the Amex Gold Bugs Index is just about to pull back to our second line of resistance that I’d plotted out some week and a half back.   If you recall, the chart looked like this:

hui_dailyiii2

In the above, we’d hit that magic $400 barrier and come back already to our first point of resistance.  Well, as of late last week, we’ve come very close to that second line and will likely hit it sometime today (Update: We’ve hit it and then some at $341– next stop could be our 13 week MA at $337.30).   Therefore, I think we need to keep our eyes open for a bounce here at least back to that first resistance level at $375.    Here’s where we are today:

hui_daily

Because of the relative strength of this sector, I think it will continue to lead, and show it’s bull head before the rest of the market does (if in fact the rest of the market continues with its bullish ways).   Short synopsis, this is your only confirmed bull in the market right now, with most names riding above their 200-day MA’s.   Therefore, this is where you want to play for fun and profit, no matter with what specie you purchase your ice cream cones.

There are a couple of POS miners that have yet to truly participate in this rally, and that may be because they are POS, so take this next chart with a kiloton of salt.   It’s the old dog, [[CDE]], which has dropped back down to attractive levels again, and is down over 5% as I type this.  Keep a tight stop here, but I continue to think this old hag still has a chance to come close to her 200 day MA at close to $30 here.  Here’s her weekly:

cdeweek2

One last note — be cautioned as [[UUP]] is back above it’s 61.8% fibonacci line of $24.06 as of about 9:40 am this morning, which could spell at least temporary trouble for the markets in general.   In the case of this PM bull, I believe it smells of  opportunity.  Best to you all.

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UpdateBarron’s weekend pick  and Jakepick (non-Jacksonian) [[NG]] showing her mettle, up almost 8% in a down market.  I own shares, but will likely add to weaker names.  [[RBY]] in particular looks good here.  Word on the PPT is that it’s a possible [[GG]] takeover.

Update: @ 1:57 pm, $HUI is right on the trendline right now at 334, give or take.   If UUP folds over, this could be an excellent purchasing opportunity.  Keep a gimlet eye!

Update:  Bot 1k more [[AGQ]] @ $44.01.

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Platinum Dreaming

"The Fly" Checks on Jake's Latest Post...

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Young Daniel-san has been nagging me lately about the other lustrous beauty, Platinum

I interrupt this blog post to tell a funny story about an even younger Daniel — my son.  Tonight we were alone together, as the Good Woman took the other kids to see “Star Trek” (she for the second time) and I stayed home with “the baby.”  Problem is, he’s not so much a baby any more and quite prone to mischief.   Case in point, he had been locking himself in his room lately, so — clever us — we turned his doorknob around about six months back.  Skip to tonight, whilst I’m preparing him beddy-bye, he’s mucking about with the door again.   Too late — I heard the “click” — did I realize he’d turned the lock and pulled the door shut, effectively locking us in his room until Star Trek was out.  Bugger.

Anyway, ever since Danny bugged me about Platinum, I’ve been watching [[PTM]] — the most liquid ETF of the metal I could find.  Tonight I’ve taken the decision to grab some given a break from it’s current position.  Given a trial period, I may even consider it for the JCHP.   I believe the following limpid, elucidating, facile and explanatory CHART will show my reasoning (rather than have you guess as to what the hell goes through my head on taking decisions like these, along the lines of certain obstreperous , cranky “Uncle Fuckers” with whom we may be familiar):

ptmdaily

Overbought?  Most assuredly.  That’s why I’ll wait to see if it clears this critical $15.40 mark before I dip my beak.   I think PTM should likely match the other precious metals, and continue to hold value, like it’s other “precious industrial” twin, Silver.   We shall see.

Meanwhile, ho hum, the Jacksonians were mostly green-hued again today, all save the two I’ve hedged with sold calls (TBT & TSO).  Odd, no?   It looks like TSO may take something of a hit here tomorrow, thanks to the foolishness of VLO and WNR,  it’s villainous brothers.   I’m not overly concerned, as I sold the June $17.50’s at close to $2.00 some  weeks back.   That said, I’d like to see TSO hold the $16.70, area, as that is the bottom range of it’s current ascending triangle.  

The $HUI continues to consolidate under $400, even as the Jacksonians move forward.  There should be some room for additional accumulation this week, I hope.

Name   2-Jun % Change   Comments        
ANDE    $     26.84 3.23%   Another 3%+ day, Ags still strong  
EGO           10.13 4.54%   So much for accumulation.  Hope you got some.
GDX           44.55 2.63%   $HUI under $400, yet GDX still up.  
GLD           96.36 0.66%   Gold (the commodity) only $14 away from $1k
IAG           11.20 1.63%   Friday’s gap gets further away.    
MON           82.70 1.50%   Moving back in the right direction for MONGO
NRP           24.30 0.25%   Back at the top of the consolidation range
PAAS           23.86 2.01%   Chug chug chug chug    
RGLD           47.76 3.51%   Just the best thing you can own    
SLV           15.75 2.61%    POS over $16 tonight, should follow  
SLW           10.87 3.62%   Overbought, but silver rocketing    
SSRI           24.67 1.52%   Ditto        
TBT           55.00 -0.94%   Pullback from yesterday’s gapup    
TC           10.39 4.00%   Considering selling the calls on this huge move
TSO           17.50 -0.06%   Will have to fight the VLO news tomorrow
     AVG  2.05%            

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The Miners Take a Rest

(Thanks to ‘Shed for the family photo)

As expected,  the miners have begun to consolidate a bit of last week’s (and last month’s) run up.    Nothing major mind you,  but the $HUI tells the tale here.  Remember this weekly chart from the 22nd of May?

hui_weeklyii

A little more than a week later, the $HUI is behaving as indicated.   Remember that red line — the “likely target for a short rest?”    Here’s today’s same chart: 

hui_dailyiii

This wholly expected retrace may bring us as far back as the top of our “consolidation box” ($375-ish).  But if the dollar and the 10-year continue to exhibit problems, I shouldn’t expect this rest to last much longer than that.    I will be using this time to aggregate some names like [[GG]] and [[AUY]] that I’ve been looking to add.   Those of you who have been waiting for a Jacksonian entry may want to consider this week’s opportunity as well.    

One other thing, I’ve been thinking about water as an appreciating commodity recently, and many of the water-related stocks have begun setting up nicely.  I may take a shot at grabbing some of the desalinator [[CWCO]] tomorrow if the stars are properly aligned.   

Note the new “comments” section on the JCHP performance chart.    Innovative, no?  

Best to you all.

Name   1-Jun % Change   Comments      
ANDE    $       26.00 3.59%   Moving with the Ags      
EGO               9.69 -2.32%   Accumulation opp. Here    
GDX             43.41 -1.70%   $HUI pullback      
GLD             95.73 -0.49%   Resting for the leap to one grand?    
IAG             11.02 -2.22%   Friday’s gap @ $10.92      
MON             81.48 -0.82%   Yet to fill gap @ $85.06, Barron’s mention  
NRP             24.24 2.45%   Low volume up day, KOL up big    
PAAS             23.39 -0.13%   Still very much in uptrend channel    
RGLD             46.14 -0.92%   Half volume day, pullback    
SLV             15.35 -0.78%   Friday’s gap @ $15.06      
SLW             10.49 -0.29%   Friday’s gap @ $9.99, will it get there?  
SSRI             24.30 1.72%   “Indefatiguable”, Friday gap @ $23.26  
TBT             55.52 5.47%   Gapped up, strong volume day    
TC               9.99 4.06%   Gapped up today, didn’t fill.    
TSO             17.51 3.36%   Hugging the top of the triangle, must break $17.80
     AVG  0.73%            

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In the Presence of Tree Goats

Not to be disparaging, but I’ve felt I’ve spent the week with a squadron of flying goats.   There you are flitting from tree to tree looking for the best green shoots, ears up and horns out,  “baaaaahhhing” it up to beat the band.   

Chips stocks!  Cancer stocks!  Lenny Dykstra Car Wash franchise stocks!  Get ’em while they’re hot from the chute!

But why must you make your lives so difficult?  There’s no reason to search for rare buds in the top branches of the acacia tree when there’s plenty of bull grass right here on the ground.   Come down from there and take a look at the freshly scythed alfalfa I have gathered for you, my yellow-eyed friends

Remember our weekly $HUI chart from last week?

hui_weekly1

Well, look what’s happened this week…. Pop!

hui_weeklyii

Can anything be more promising than that little green bud out of the consolidation zone?    And yes, we’re a little overbought here, and should be coming into some more resistance around 400 or so, but we should welcome that opportunity.  

After all my boy, it is a bull market — and maybe the only one you’ll see for years to come.  So relax some, take a load off, and get your nets ready.   It’s almost harvest time again.

This week’s Jackson Core Holdings Portfolio results were very pleasing, especially as measured against the indexes.   So have some nice goat cheese this weekend, and maybe try to pause a second whilst hoisting that relaxing beverage to remember those who have served, and especially those who have fallen in order that you could enjoy this great country.    Be well.

Name 5/8/2009 5/15/2009 5/22/2009
ANDE  $    21.50  $      21.31 -0.88%  $    23.34 9.53%
GDX        37.46          37.65 0.51%        42.05 11.69%
GLD        89.98          91.55 1.74%        94.45 3.17%
IAG          9.92            9.83 -0.91%        10.86 10.48%
MON        86.42          89.95 4.08%        86.61 -3.71%
NRP        23.39          21.29 -8.98%        22.21 4.32%
PAAS        19.35          18.66 -3.57%        21.42 14.79%
RGLD        39.90          39.97 0.18%        44.26 10.73%
SLV        13.79          13.77 -0.15%        14.50 5.30%
SLW          8.91            8.58 -3.70%          9.34 8.86%
SSRI        20.06          19.06 -4.99%        21.73 14.01%
TBT        52.24          49.13 -5.95%        53.57 9.04%
TC          7.98            7.65 -4.14%          8.64 12.94%
TSO        16.72          16.60 -0.72%        16.23 -2.23%
    AVG -1.96%   7.78%
   
Name 5/8/2009 5/15/2009 5/22/2009
SPY  $    92.98  $      88.71 -4.59%  $    89.02 0.35%
QQQQ        34.23          33.37 -2.51%        33.54 0.51%
DIA        85.47          82.78 -3.15%        82.87 0.11%
NDX   1,394.16     1,355.11 -2.80%   1,363.17 0.59%
RUT      511.82        475.84 -7.03%      477.62 0.37%
    AVG -4.02%   0.39%

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Oh Shizzle! They’ve Killed RoboCodizzle!

Naw, it’s not that bad, yet,  but Detroit is getting there.   Let’s see what a couple of years of a U.A.W. -driven Chrysler do to it.

But let’s put all that aside and talk about the invisibility of this gold bull, shall we?  I mean, my astute buddies over in the estimable PPT — that Powerful Profit Taj– (have you signed up yet??)… even those gentlemen seem to be walking around that trading room like zombies in the Night of the Living Dead, completely oblivious to the blooming precious metal bull that is erupting around them.  

 Why, just today, one of our estimable patrons sold our featured “pocket rocket” junior miner (see below) as if it were one of CA’s 30 second Viagra Vehicles.   Let me tell you, I was aghast!  Mortified!

But let me assure you, Jacksonians, this odd behaviour (sic) only inures to our collective benefit.   The longer the general public (and let me make clear that the PPT community is NOT the “General Public,” they are at least “English Beat” or barring that “Fine Young Cannibals”– ) remains ignorant of the stealth bull in the precious metal miners, the better it is for our accumulation purposes.   

For, my friends  (come, gather close so I may whisper it to you) — we shall be as the most miserable pinch penny miser on Ebenezer Scrooge’s third shift staff, sparingly sifting our gold and silver specie into dark musty lock boxes while others pass the punch with knowing glee and manly aplomb.  Let them have their japes and their ales and their merry tunes played upon a three stringed fiddle, for we shall act quietly here below, rebuilding the foundation of a hackneyed and eroding financial system for our children and their’s.   It is weary work, but God smiles upon us, and there shall be reward.

That said, I dont’ have much time to dwell on the blindness of the common man, so let’s take a quick look at what they’re missing. 

Remember this chart of the AMEX Gold Bugs Index from a week or so back?

hui_daily1

Pretty nice looking chart, no?  Maybe some of you got long after looking at it?  Maybe some of you ran out and bought some gold stocks the next day, too.   (Heh) 

 Let’s see if that was the smart thing to do, from the perspective of a week later:

hui_dailyii

Well peel me naked and slather me with mornay sauce, whaddaya know?  A breakout just like we expected.   And look at all that free air we’ve got to go.   Hmmmm…  and what was  in that Index again?  Oh yeah, a lot of juicy big cap gold and silver stocks.   

Think maybe that break into the free zone will have some effect on our junior miners?   Heck, let’s see:

ngd_daily 

 This is your golden burrito for tomorrow and for the summer, my friends.  We shall share recipes for further tasty treats as time allows, but for now, know that outside the Jacksonian Core*, I am also purchasing and/or considering the purchase of the following precious metal mining hardies:  [[GG]], [[EGO]], [[AUY]], [[EXK]], [[NGD]], [[NXG]], [[NG]] and of course [[AGQ]].    

Keep in mind also, that there was a pretty bearish candle on the TLT today, boys and girls.  If that bond group and the Ten-Year Starting breaking down, it’ll likely be sayonora for the large part of this market.   Except maybe one part.

Caveat:  If you follow me into the purchase of any of the above named precious metal plays, your children will be stolen by Hobgoblins and traded to dwarves for shiny strips of tin foil and moldy bacon. 

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 ANDE — $22.20  (-2.42%)

GDX — $41.24 (+1.90%)

GLD — $93.85  (+1.73)

IAG – $10.23 (+0..69%) 

MON — $89.29 (-2.77)
 
NRP — $22.57 (-3.42%)

PAAS — $21.19 (+0.95%)

RGLD – $44.90 (+4.98%)

SLV — $14.34  (+1.69%)

SLW — $9.41  (-0.53%)

SSRI — $22.17  (+0.77%)

TBT — $52.43 (+4.96%)

TC — $8.46 (-7.44%)

TSO — $16.53 (-4.40%)

Daily Average: 0.25%

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UPDATE: I sold the calls on TBT again, here @ $53.58.   I think TBT is a bit parabolic here, and TLT looks like it’s ready to bounce.

See caveats above.

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