No pics today and probably for the rest of the week, until Vincenzo hoses the rest of the marinara gravy from the insides of the server box. Today it’s just going to be a blank day, as that’s as good as any for a day when my language was pretty regularly depicted — old timey-style — by whirling spirals, jumpy stars, cock-eyed exclamation points and the 1950’s film noir tough guy utterance– “blankity blankin’ blankity blank!!”
Only I wasn’t talkin’ about no dames, see?
No I was talking about the hard money portfolio that is your dear General Jackson’s. We got shelled like Francis Scott Key’s famous banner at Fort McHenry. Part of the reason was the undeniable strength in the dollar. [[UUP]] , our proxy, was still spiking toward the end of the day. The other part was the rush to the exits by all the Late-Comer Charlies that climbed aboard the magical precious metal bus last month only to depart in a frightened huff early in this one.
They must have forgotten that we’rein a bull market right now, and it’s in the “money” that does not easily squander.
They must have forgotten also that bulls, in the opposite manner of sleepy bears and their Siren’s rallies, try their damndest to take as few folk as possible with them on their ride to massive gains. These last two days’ bronco riding are ample evidence of that. So are we going to get pistol whipped off this bull like a bunch of mewling woosies, merely because we’ve been bootstomped something sore?
No, we are not. In fact, as I reported, I took this opportunity to grab some more double silver — [[AGQ]] today when it bounced off it’s long term 38.2% fib and it’s short term 61.8% fib in the $43.70 area. I am prepared to add one more time should we see additional weakness tomorrow. I am liquidating more frivolous holdings in order to ready myself.
In the meantime, you lucky ducks who were late to last months party are beginning to see some juicy bargains. Nibble stealthily here, like a Persian guinea pig inside the mink lined trunk of a ’36 Bugatti, at each of the Jacksonians. None is more attractive right now than SSRI, which, were I paying closer attention, I would have grabbed more of today, despite my already full plate in the name.
As you know I’m particularly fond of silver and think it egregiously undervalued here, with gold once again at almost 66 times the price of silver. So I will buy SLW, SSRI and PAAS first, but note my maunderings below in the notes section of the JCHP Report — almost everything is now on sale. I say that because we pulled back even further than I thought on the weekly and exactly to the trend line on the daily today (part of my reasoning for buying AGQ).
Look at that strike of the trendline. And also note the oversold condition of the stochs. I’ll be looking to reap and gather tomorrow in the fields of Jackson.
And here’s today’s bloody Jacksonian Core Holdings Portfolio results:
| Name | 12-Jun | 15-Jun | % Change | Comments | |
| ANDE | $ 29.79 | $ 28.83 | -3.22% | High top doji, second day of rest. | |
| EGO | 8.79 | 8.28 | -5.80% | Could see $8 again, but good support @ $8.15 | |
| GDX | 39.54 | 37.97 | -3.97% | Strong support at 37.50, ideal entry. | |
| GLD | 92.17 | 91.10 | -1.16% | POG only down a little more than $7 – | |
| IAG | 9.85 | 9.25 | -6.09% | Egregiously oversold, closed on the ST trendline | |
| MON | 86.54 | 84.97 | -1.81% | Low volume down day, still on ST trend | |
| NRP | 23.85 | 22.99 | -3.61% | Still on uptrend, 38.2% fib @ 22.05 | |
| PAAS | 22.04 | 20.95 | -4.95% | $19.80 is the 38.2% retrace. Support @ 20.70 | |
| RGLD | 42.64 | 41.81 | -1.95% | Low volume down day, stopped on 13 wk EMA | |
| SLV | 14.63 | 13.83 | -5.47% | PO Silver on 50 day EMA right now ($14.14) | |
| SLW | 10.05 | 9.25 | -7.96% | LT 38.2% retrace is $9.00 — prime entry | |
| SSRI | 21.95 | 19.92 | -9.25% | Up to $20.27 in AH. That’s the trend line. | |
| TBT | 56.59 | 55.49 | -1.94% | The least of my concerns. | |
| TC | 11.76 | 11.05 | -6.04% | $10.81 is 38% retrace. Tapped today. | |
| TSO | 14.98 | 14.98 | 0.00% | Have you thought of his replacement yet? | |
| AVG (daily) | -4.21% | ||||
| AVG (monthly) | -6.76% | ||||
| AVG (inception) | 17.02% | ||||
If you feel a bit queasy about these rockin and rollin PM positions, just remember one thing:
You are in really really good company.
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Does action in the juniors or gold bugs or whatever the core constituents of HUI are tend to lead gold or is it the other way around?
I ask because it looks like gold broke its uptrend line from Oct., whereas HUI is right at its TL.
If you haven’t noticed one lead over the other, that’s great too, I doubt the relationship is totally linear, but since yous the expoyt[sic] n all…thought yous ah be the one to ax.
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How’s my phonetics btw? Up to par?
Thanks for the “word pictures,” Jake.
Just started reading Market Folly, btw. Can’t remember where I tripped over it.
Seems interesting & helpful.
Danny, up until recently, gold was leading the miners, but they’ve caught up quite a bit.
Not sure I agree that trend line from October is broken on POG, btw.
Close, but not quite.
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re POG, you are correct, my mistake.
thought that b broke that s.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=0fbe3772-a129-44e2-9e85-41b7a917dddc
I know it’s an under five dollar stock but UEC was up again today. Just sayin’.
Just wait a bit and the fundamentals will reassert themselves. All this dollar hype by the Japanese and Russians is absurd in the extreme. It is so political and so disingenuous its hard to believe they can say it without giggling.
That said, today freaking sucked from a performance standpoint as everything, everywhere went down. But,…I see so many ETFs and stocks having touched their 50 dMA today, or 200 day, or other support that I think we get over this quickly (as you indicate in your notes above). If we don’t and they break then quick action will be called for.
Replacement for TSO = a nat gas play, or UNG itself.
Maybe on NG related, but I have trouble with putting a seasonal commodity into the Jacksonians.
CHK or some growing aggregator might be a play.
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What about steel? If oil/transport costs go up, domestic steel companies might make a comeback. (I read an article about this as well)
What about U.S. Steel for the long term?
I used to be a customs broker and my customers told me if the U.S. dollar fell too much, they wouldn’t be selling to the states (mostly my customers were CDN, but we did import a lot of steel from overseas, as well as Canada… Dollar down, transport costs up, U.S. companies buying steel locally?
I don’t know, I’m just learning, but still trying to contribute… Stocks get into your blood and become such an obsession, I even dream about them and I’m supposed to be taking the summer off. LOL
On another more frivolous note, Mad Catz (MCZ) held it’s own today. I bought more. Hope Lindsay is reading, because that is my crazy stock pick, Lindsay.
thanks for the link love Jake, nice post. Lots of hedge funds in the gold trade these days which can mean one of two things: A) the world is fucked and they’re going to make a ton of money, or B) this many people rushing into gold means it’s time to take some profits. Haha everything is always funnier when you examine it in binary outcomes.
Good luck catching this falling knife. You were down about 50% today but didn’t note that. Suck em in?
Jake– got it– thanks– have been watching silver closely and was waiting for your
update.
chanci– there you are. check out FACE and SLTM charts and performance–
then read Cronkite’s ten indicator blog from today (monday)– it makes so much
sense they’d be doing well (the guys would probably never touch them ::)) I’ll definately check out MCZ and anything else you’re buying. Stock after stock I see on user notes on PPT that has done well starts at the very beginning with an entry from “chanci”–you’re a natural girl. Oh, and I’m with you on steel. especially chinese steel. CPSL is looking good again for a dip buy. And sure enough, there is the first comment on PPT for CPSL “april 2– this is looking pretty good to me- chanci” price at time of your comment was 1.28
Jay- thanks for stopping by. I don’t care so much about “lots” of hedgies, just the one. Most hedgies are as worthless as the OTB guys that populate the Yahoo boards. Paulson, however is a long swinging thesis trader, and I’ve agreed with his take for years. Just glad to see him in gold with me now.
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Chanci- I doubt I’d do steel before another ag or energy commodity, but might look at Nucor rather than X.
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Danny/Jake,
Good question on the lead/lag relationship of gold and miner stocks. I may take a look at that statistically.
Jake, my vote would be for UGA… sorry I had to do it. But seriously, I do kinda like UNG or a natty stock although I am not sure if Nat gas is going to rally as many think it will. I had a post on my blog this morning about it and will try to post a PG post on it. I have a bit more to look at it but looking at nat gas inventories it does not suggest yet we are in for a winter rally in nat gas as we sometimes get. But it is still to early to say (ask me in a few months).
Cebu- you were much friendlier on your medication.
Please get back on it.
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Caveman- I agree on NG, I think we may have an oversupply problem for a while, and any price increase will be fleeting.
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What I think might be at play is a paired trade of short crude oil(USO) and long natural gas(UNG). I think the growing discrepancy between the two is overdue to regress to the historical mean. I am playing around with a statistical model on that.
FYI, I just put up a Peanut Gallery post on natty gas prices.
FYI, and attention: Tim Knight just tweeted that he thought GLD was a good short here.
Status: “giddy.”
PS — he also said he thought earl was a good short (USO).
Act accordingly.
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