There you stand, all “a-guts”with leftover Halloween booty, still feeling a little queasy from too much of that new beer you bought after seeing the “Most Interesting Man” commercial (you didn’t know it wasn’t Tecate… you just told the guy the guy at the bodega… “that Mex beer… you know?”)…

And now, this post-pumpkin Halloween Surprise and a half market.

Well, hold onto your grapes here folks, ’cause I think we’ve gotten an RSI scrape-out and bounce here on the [[HUI]] index, and I think the famed 38.2% fibonacci level has held as long term support in the $378 area.

This is significant because it looks like the price of gold is heading back up again– as mentioned Friday and again today– despite the best efforts of the IMF with their attempts at silencing the insatiable third world gold demand and despite even the recent dollar strength.

I think the overall markets may have one more wiggle before the lows are in, so you may have one more opportunity tomorrow to grab some miners before they begin their march back to El Dorado without you.

I like Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] , [[EXK]] , [[CDE]] for “bang for your buck” cocaine dependent trader types, and I think IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] are the best of the Jacksons right now.

As my nemesis, Hippy Red Neck Purdy has rightfully pointed out, [[BIOS]] has broken into that “free air” zone I mentioned in bloggish notes past.   I think it’s good to the $9.50 area in the near-term, fwiw.

Last, for you degenerate gambling types, the double ETF’s [[AGQ]] an [[ERX]] are looking like they are ready to start le bon temps roulletting like a bourbon filled Jeremy Shockey in the House of the Rising Son with Ragin’ and Andy Swan as his parallel-pounding wing-men. 

So hold your gourd, pumpkin eaters, this is seed-spitting time!  

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Update:  For the sadness of All Saints

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvb65dCMjZI 450 300]

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I’m really juicing my returns!

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I know, I know, so few of you even watch baseball anymore… It’s more than likely that this reference is something of a stretch.

Better I should stick with the metaphor of football, with its place of honour (sic) and royalty amongst great American sports, and it’s apt illustrations of long bombs and crashing sprints to the goal line.

But for now, humour (sic) me, and act like you know what I’m talking about when I describe an increasingly obscure sport played by men in tight knickers carrying large whittled  pieces of timber, who seek to knock a tightly wound and sewn sac of leather onto a perfectly mown lawn, preferably with no interference by opposing knicker-clad men who have handicapped themselves with enormous envelopes of leather appended to one hand .

It’s not unlike “the jai-alai,” in that respect.

In recent years these men, perhaps grown jealous of their larger athletic compadres playing in the NFL, have taken to augmenting their physiques with such muscle enhancing chemicals as horse hormones and testicular steroids.    One such famed participant was Mark McGwire,  a now near-forgotten and disgraced performer for the St. Louis Cardinals, who put on so much additional mass via home chemo-therapy that he began to resemble the famed Michelin Man of French tire hocking renown.

Then he broke Yankee Great Roger Maris’s single-season home run record and marked the beginning of the end for American baseball.  

But enough of that funeral oratory, as I only bring up Mark McGwire to remark upon how easy it seems to have gotten to knock home-runs in the precious metal space.     So easy, in fact, that I remarked in The PPT yesterday that it was like watching the aforesaid McGuire hitting warm up fungoes in batting practice, or better yet — easily winning the Major League All-Star Game Home Run Derby almost every year he entered it.

But in the market, things are not supposed to come this easily, and so my mind has strayed to areas of oncoming resistance much like a hobo seeking lights at the far end of a train tunnel.   Remember, there will be pullbacks, and I think our friend “Baby $HUI”can be our guide again in this regaurd (sic):

My best guess is we run to that first line of resistance as depicted on the weekly above, and then fall back to the trend line.   So if you are looking to unload phat options positions that have grown unwieldy with greasy profits, your window may be approaching.

There’s also a chance that the dollar dumps with the ferocity of an aging bull elephant beset with cholera.  If that happens we may run all the way back to all-times highs as featured on Saint Paddy’s day of 2008 (and illustrated in red above), when oil was peaking at $147 a barrel.   

 Word to the wise — oil is half that now.  Act accordingly.

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For specifics, silver is still lagging gold, which as we’ve discussed, has broken to all time highs and is now over $1,061 an ounce.   Silver remains below $18, and it’s all time high is  $49.45an ounce.      That’s why I’m on those stocks like Woodshedder on a corn-dog. 

In order of immediacy,  I like [[PAAS]] on the sell-off, Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] on the pullback, [[EXK]] , Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] and finally the dog, Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] .

Also, on the gold side, I have to make a shout-out to favourite Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and new The PPT find Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] which is up about 25% since being singled out by The PPT early last week.

Last, I am accumulating [[TBT]] for the near inevitable rise in interest rates.  I added 1,000 more yesterday.

Best to you all.

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Yer Late, ya bastid!
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Things have been ripping around here, as the overstretched band of “no bidness” that plagued us for the first six months of the year has snapped back with a vengeance to “too much bidness.”

I am not crapping you, we are hiring right now, as we just hauled in about five new deals in the last month.   Now I’ve got to actually execute them which is going to stretch me thin all the way into Christmas.

Luckily, my portfolio is largely set.   I will nacker about here and there, but you know my thesis of “Baby $HUI to the Christmas Tree,” ovah heah, and I shall not stray much from it.

Right now, one of my favourite plays — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] looks to be ripping into the close, and the price of silver ($17.71 right now)  is hardly wavering even as the price of gold takes a mini-step back ($1,049.00).

Remember that Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] target fibonacci extension I put up a few weeks back after it’s breakout?  I said it would hit $10.70, remember?  Well, that worked out well, as it’s there and past, and I would look at that $10.70 area as a nice place to pick up some more shares of ANV, which is quickly becoming one of my favourites (sic)  — Jacksonian even.

Last, my beloved, if neglected Jacksonian stalwart, [[TBT]] .    I still own a metric shit tonne of this, even though I sold a bunch in the high 50’s some months back, thinking I’d buy back on a retrace. 

 Well, I was waiting for it to hit that $44.90 fibonacci level we had discussed, and it breached even that  so I said “ok, I’ll wait.”

I should have just bot some there, or at least averaged down.   Now, I’m doing a bit of a chase, and will attempt to refill my love gourds on a subsequent (hoped for) pullback to the $45.50’s area.

That is all for now, but if you want to discuss specific charts, I can throw them up this weekend at your request.  

Back to the salt mines.

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Let the above visial metaphor serve you as caution both political and market-noteworthy.  And I would rather put the emphasis, if I could, less on any proposed lack of intelligence and more — as in this particular case — on a plethora of emotional overload.

I think we’ve all been conditioned since the dawn of the Modern Era to be less disciplined about our emotions and how we allow them to guide our better judgment.  Therefore I don’t derisively dismiss those who would choose a relative unknown, a blank slate — a cypher, even — over “more of the same” after years of increasingly partisan turmoil, economic upheaval and yes, war.  I don’t even calumnize those who would, with less than optimum due diligence, usher such a person in under the auspices of emotionally laden, even heartfelt notions of “change” and “renewal.”

However,  I do applaud those for whom the fugue is beginning to lift. 

A similar sense of euphoria has been brought up short recently, this time in our gold and silver metals and corresponding miners markets.  Despite my many assurances that the treacherous bull of the last nine years would careen about tossing off weak adherents like so many loosely tied marionettes, many are still appalled and even frightened by the pullback we’ve experienced over the last week.

That, however, is an example of the very psychosis of secular bulls.

Like mad men at the mazurka, secular bulls will make you dance for every penny, and some days you will dance your feet raw.  Sell calls, my friends — or take some positions down to a more manageable level if it’s worth your good sleep.  God knows, some nights it’s worth mine. 

Note my [[$HUI]] chart below for clues:

We may bounce here at the $400 breakout, or we may take the $HUI all the way back to the 61.8% fib retrace at just below $380. I am prepared for both scenarios, and I would suggest you gird your loins for both as well.  As for market specific stocks, I like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] tomorrow, off a bounce of the 50-day, which has served as strong support for a while.   That would be approximately $8.73.

My best to you all.

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Again, there’s no need for braggadocio.  It’s too early yet.

Let’s just recognize that there will be pullbacks, perhaps as soon as this week.   Those pullbacks may take the form of consolidations, or real live gut-rippers like we experienced in rocket ship IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] last Friday.   Take a look at my notes on the Jacksons for further guidance. 

Important to note, however, that we’ve broken out of the long term triangle on the $HUI, and out of the recent June highs, with a close over $409 on Friday.   Next targets are $475 and the old highs of $525.   I am firmly convinced we’ll see both those levels well before Christmas.  This should drive the Jacksons for the remainder of the year, and I think there’s ample room for continued participation here.

Remember this chart from a couple of days back? 

Well, look where we’ve come in two short weeks:

My favourite (sic) non-Jacksons include Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]]  and Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] on the gold side and [[CDE]] and [[EXK]] on the silver.   I really like the free air on the CDE side.   It could go to the low forties with very little resistance now that it’s broken out of it’s May closing highs.

Here’s the weekly Jackson review… note the monthly is higher than the weekly in this first week of September, because August 31’st was such a down day for many Jacksons.

Name/			%		Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	28-Aug	4-Sep	Change		Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$        32.92	$      32.34	-1.76%		$             9,764	-0.10%		Still looking for the break of $33. Soon!
EGO	10.56	11.21	6.16%		$           10,504	0.39%		$11.50 is BTFO target
GDX	40.18	45.02	12.05%		$           13,626	0.98%		Look for pullback this week. BO>$45.25
GLD	93.87	97.53	3.90%		$           11,217	0.26%		Looking for $100.
IAG	12.02	13.84	15.14%		$           17,065	1.55%		In BTFO territory, and consolidating BO.
MON	83.00	82.24	-0.92%		$           13,047	-0.07%		Coiling on low volume
PAAS	19.99	22.45	12.31%		$           13,483	0.99%		BO out of triangle. Pullback level – 21.50
RGLD	39.95	45.98	15.09%		$           12,705	1.15%		Massive two day BO.  Next target $48.65
SLV	14.50	15.97	10.14%		$           12,973	0.79%		Broke weekly DT, over 15.75 resistance
SLW	10.45	11.59	10.91%		$           11,258	0.74%		Massive BO.  Next target $14.
SSRI	18.28	21.09	15.37%		$           12,269	1.13%		Needs $21.50 for BO level
TBT	46.74	47.70	2.05%		$             9,502	0.12%		Bounced from $45 low, now over $47.20 again
TC	11.98	11.89	-0.75%		$             9,787	-0.04%		May have bottomed at $11
TCK	25.20	24.36	-3.33%		$           23,505	-0.47%		May have bottomed at $22.05
Cash (000)	$        0.00	$    12.64	0.01%		$         12,644	0.00%		Same
AVG (weekly)			5.67%		$       193,350	7.41%
AVG (monthly)			7.88%		Actual cash
AVG (inception)			32.81%		on cash return	28.90%

Best to you this week, and watch for pullbacks!

___________________

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Just remember, all this bullcrap you are seeing today is about the dollar and it’s relationship with the rest of the world economy.   If it rallies hard here, it’s because the banks are throwing a scare into the Deflation-minded.   But if you have any questions about where the Fed is willing to go, please hit yourself on the head with a ball-peen hammer for “clarity’s sake” and consult this worthy chart once again (hat tip to DPeezy and ZH for posting yesterday).

If you are really confused, I would get thee to The PPT for a quick infusion of “brain trust.”   The wins in those fora lately have been breathtaking.  It just gets better every time I go in there. 

Back to the dollar rally — which I’m just not sure is for real, frankly.  In fact, it strikes me as more “seasonally oriented” than anything else.   You know — “September sucks, sell, sell?”   My opinion?  That bit of conventional wisdom and a box of Cracker Jacks will keep the monkeys at the Zoo from self-pleasuring, but it will get you little else in this Fed-governed market.   No, the Fed’s first job is to keep the banks liquid, credit spreads tight, and the FDIC afloat.   If you think they won’t sacrifice the dollar to those ends, then please repair back to the chart above for further ball peening.

Granted we are at a critical juncture, as you can see from the chart below.    We are right up against a long term down trend line (at about $23.45) on the [[UUP]] .  After that we have the near term 38.2% (strong) fib line at $23.57 and the 50 day EMA at $23.60.   I would tend think we have officially “bottomed” in the dollar for the near term if these prices are breached on volume.

 

Both the prices of gold and silver  are holding up here as well, which gives me some indication that if money is flowing back to the dollar, it’s not at the expense of the precious metals.   This should offer us some opportunity in our miners going forward, and even today.   The [[HUI]] is bouncing off it’s trendline as we speak.   Happy hunting.

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