Fillies Day at Churchill – The Kentucky Oaks

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Whether or not 6-5 rated filly Blind Luck dominates this year’s Kentucky Oaks race as she’s expected, I will need much luck at the track tomorrow as I spin out my “exotics” bets, the exactas, trifectas and superfectas.

You see I’m usually a happy loser on Oaks, and a winner on Derby (the next day, Saturday).  I take Oaks Day as a warm-up, choosing to schmooze the crowds and throw crazy United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] -truck sized iron butterfly-equivalent bets that have about as much chance of coming in as a fat man in a Scottsdale Arizona half-marathon.

For the big race itself (the Oaks, tomorrow, I mean), I guess I’m going to have to throw Blind Luck in there with my exotics, as betting it straight up (at 6-5) would just be plain boring, even with a win.   I’ll likely pair her up in an exacta with Tidal Pool or Quiet Temper.    

My “sleeper” is Beautician, and I may throw some money at her in a win place type of situation.  We’ll see.

Also of some interest to fans of the Sport of Kings, last year’s Oaks Queen (by over 20 lengths!), Rachel Alexandra will be featured tomorrow as well,  in the Grade II La Troienne Stakes, which will run before the Oaks.  In that race she faces the one horse that has beaten her this year — Zardana.   Should be a good one.

Nothing much to see in my stock portfolio, aside from “win” — the misbehaving LED light partners Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] and Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] notwithstanding.    Monsanto Company [[MON]] is looking very tasty here as well, and I will be adding to my original pile tomorrow at these levels.   Again, I don’t care if MON goes to the fifties, as I will continue to purchase it for the long haul.  That said, it’s monstrously oversold right now.

Meanwhile, in sunnier climes, I expect Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] continue to pack on pounds every day in an effort to please me with their plumpness.   I look or Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] to start to mimic the success of Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] as of late.   Also, keep an eye on [[EXK]] making a stealth move, along with [[CDE]] .

On the platinum side, aside from [[PTM]] , the ETF, the miners [[PAL]] and Stillwater Mining Company [[SWC]] look like they are returning to the upside move again.

Two stocks that have been in my portfolio went kind of wacky tonight… [[ENTR]] and Akamai Technologies, Inc. [[AKAM]] — an old friend of le Docteur M. Le Fly.

As always, I can’t state strongly enough the benefits of giving The PPT a shot.  The work that is going on within those walls recently is truly impressive.   Useful tools and a useful community of traders… you can’t ask for much more than that at the price.

Best to you all, and Happy Oaks!

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okHGCz6xxiw 450 300]

Maggie Lays It Out for You

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I think it fitting that I spent most of the day away from you, gentle reader, in a room full of bored and cored, screw-tapped and dew-lapped copper, titanium  and aluminum gew gaws.

What better way, after all, to celebrate the next emerging bubble in basic and precious metals than to revel in the presence of those commodities end-products?  And here’s what’s crazy… despite the high prices of these manufacturing inputs, the companies that produce highly machined components from these sources are getting TOP dollar right now, less than 13 months from a near Armegeddon bottom in March of 2009.

Imagine that, huh?  One would think there’s the scent of easy money in the air.

I still think we’re in for a pullback and maybe it’s this week or the next, but it’s coming, because we have to reset some of these overbought conditions.  It won’t be much though, I shouldn’t think, and I have three pullback plays just itching to be triggered on any moderate pullbacks.

The first is from the aforesaid metals group, and a past holding of mine.   I held RTI International Metals, Inc. [[RTI]] back when it was around $11-$12.  I believe I sold around $15, much to my chagrin:

Note that I don’t think this commodity leaper will pull back much.  Perhaps to the top of the consolidation zone at $31 or so.

Next, two old friends.  The first is one of my oldest and longest term holdings.   I’ve said in the past that I think United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] leads the trannies, and so leads the market.  Recently, that theory has held up.   UPS is looking like it needs to form a pullback “handle” here, in order to consolidate and take off again.   You can see my target:

You can see that even on the weekly, she looks rather overbought.   A pullback to $62, at least, is in the cards on this one, I beleive.

Last I offer an old friend that was originally brought to us by our oldest of friends.   I’ve owned some a while and not looked at it for some time.   Well, it looks like [[ENTR]] is prepping for big things at last.

Viva la Cable Box Revolucion!  

Be well, all, and keep an eye on [[UUP]] for further signs of a commodity revolution.

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UPDATE:  This Rocks, and it will also educate your kids.  What more can you ask for?

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk&feature=fvw 450 300]

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My friend Mr. Russell was reconstituting today, just as my enemy Mrs. Pelosi was trying to reconstitute our country’s energy markets.  So you can imagine it was a bit harum scarum.

I will come back later, and blog like the wind in the willows (maybe I’ll have illustrative capabilities back by then), but now it’s off to a super important pool party replete with screaming brats.  Ah, parenthood.

Later.

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Back, and I’ve looked at the JCHP for today, and save for the bizarro behaviour of usually reliable Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] , it looked like a general consolidation day for the PM’s, which is natural given the large moves a number of them made yesterday.  Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] continues to look good here, as do a the juniors I’d mentioned earlier in the day (see last post).

I will try to find out wtf is going on with RGLD this weekend. 

The other good news is that the non precious metals — Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] , as well as ag supplier The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] all look like they are uncoiling out of their bullish flags again.  Keep a close eye for volume increases.

Last, be sure to keep an eye on the biotech pinless hand grenades I’ve tossed around over the last couple of weeks.   A number of them did the astral elevator today, I think because of Russell Reconstitution Day.   They included [[HEB]] , [[CTIC]] and ImmunoGen, Inc. [[IMGN]] .

Lastly, Fly’s chip box chomper of the future, [[ENTR]] had a nice gain today, but more important, it rose on huge (almost 16x average) volume.  I did not see their name in the Russell rebalances, so this volume remains a mystery.  Something to look for on Monday, however, as significant volume is usually… well… significant!

The Jackson’s on Friday:

Name/			%
Ticker	25-Jun	26-Jun	Change		Comments
ANDE	$        29.95	$      30.23	0.93%		Moving nicely out of the bull flag
EGO	9.39	9.40	0.11%		Consolidation day for gold
GDX	39.99	39.20	-1.98%		Ditto
GLD	92.31	92.29	-0.02%		POG broke briefly over $940, then back.
IAG	10.58	10.48	-0.95%		Consolidation day for gold
MON	75.66	75.25	-0.54%		Ditto
NRP	20.83	20.82	-0.05%		Flat again, forming bear flag?
PAAS	19.34	19.08	-1.34%		Held up at the 200 day EMA
RGLD	46.00	42.07	-8.54%		Freakish late day drop.   Be prepared to cut
SLV	13.81	13.90	0.65%		Up with the POS
SLW	8.81	8.72	-1.02%		Held up at the 50 day EMA
SSRI	19.65	19.52	-0.66%		Held up at the 50 day EMA
TBT	51.03	50.84	-0.37%		Near flat today, could be done w. pull back
TC	10.31	10.44	1.26%		Like ANDE moving out of flag
TCK	15.99	16.56	3.56%		Same, looking very strong here
TZA	22.74	22.50	-1.06%		Flattish for a triple.
AVG (daily)			-0.63%
AVG (monthly)			-6.44%
AVG (inception)			15.49%

 Update: The Ozzie’s get it right.   Or at least their Senate does.  Let’s hope our own Senate can be as astute when this criminal theft Al Gore bill comes before them.   Hold your reps accountable on this one, people.

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Sorry, I gotta make this one short and sweet.  I got a barfing three year old on my hands.   They don’t like to accomodate you at that age, if you’re familiar, so I have to play “moving target” ovah heah.

Anyway, the Jacksons didn’t do much today, and you can see my comments below.  The two big movers were [[TC]] — which is just a Godzillian monster ripping down ricepaper buildings in Tokyo — busted right past my 61.8% long term fib line today and proceeded to keep going.   I wanted to sell the calls only to find  — to my deep chagrin and embarassment — there were none.   So I sold one third of my position, as reported, at $11.21.   I guess we’ll find out very soon if that was a bad move, but considering I had gotten those shares in the low sixes, I could not complain.  

[[TBT]] is the other marching gorilla, responding to all kinds of distress out there in Ten Year Bond land.   Well, I just don’t think we’re going to crack 4% on the first attempt here, auction or not.   I just think that’s too easy.   I will likely sell the calls again tomorrow on any further march to $60, keeping in mind we may have seen the high water mark this afternoon at $59.79.

Only [[PAAS]] was over 2% for the rest of the Jackson’s and only [[ANDE]] — which needed a rest — was down more than 2%… so, a blah day.

I will caution you to watch the PM’s tomorrow however, as I got the feeling that this current consolidation may be coming to an end, one way or the other.  Stay alert.

On non Jacksons [[ENTR]] finally broke out a bit and [[ANV]] showed nice relative strength considering the paucity of movement in the rest of the gold sector.  That may be one to own when we start moving again.   

That’s all for now, save the list.   Be well everybody, and watch the puke flu.

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{I know I keep fiddling with the format of this performance chart, but please let me know if you like this latest idea of putting the prior day’s post in for comparison’s sake.}

Name	9-Jun	10-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE	$ 31.30	$    30.48	-2.62%		Still on the trendline.
EGO	9.21	9.13	-0.87%		Would like to see it kiss the st trend line @ $8.90
GDX	41.09	40.80	-0.71%		Hanging on 61.8% long term fib.  Added 1k today @$40.88
GLD	93.83	93.86	0.03%		POG down about $2.  Waiting.
IAG	10.17	10.21	0.39%		Holding pattern.
MON	85.07	85.85	0.92%		Dropped and recovered nicely all afternoon.
NRP	24.11	24.01	-0.41%		Looking for a breakout above $24.60 to “prove”
PAAS	21.71	22.15	2.03%		Looking to get over $22.30 in the morning.
RGLD	44.37	43.90	-1.06%		Touched the trendline as expected, should go north from here.
SLV	15.03	15.01	-0.13%		PO Silver down a mere 8 cent.
SLW	10.29	10.18	-1.07%		Will it get to the trendline @ $9.90?
SSRI	22.59	22.75	0.71%		Making a move for the top of the cup again.
TBT	57.22	58.77	2.71%		Missed $60 by fitty cent.  Waiting for auction to sell calls.
TC	10.58	11.32	6.99%		Just a freaking monster.  Took 1/3 off @ $11.21. Mistake?
TSO	15.51	15.35	-1.03%		Needs to show me something here, or buh-bye.
AVG			0.39%

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UUP is our proxy for the dollar as you recall.   It’s right at make or break here hanging about it’s 61.8% retrace.  Now, on my other graphing software, the 61.8% — Golden Ratio — retrace line is at $24.07.   No matter, we want this sucker below $24 to feel good about the dollar not threatening this rally again.  

Good thing we are in PM’s and heavy metals as they are negotiating this squall just fine today.   On the gold side, [[ANV]] continues to show real nice relative strength, to the point where its making me wonder if there’s not something going on.   [[PAAS]] and [[PTM]] are doing well as well, and you may want to have a sally at [[NG]] as it’s getting bootstomped for no particular reason while [[NXG]] is up.  Perhaps it’s the “X” chromasone?

I like [[TIE]]  and [[TC]] is just insane.  I may sell the calls after this posting, in fact.   In the meantime, the golds and silvers are hanging tough, and [[TBT]] is right at my intermediate sell level (high of about 59.50 today).   I may sell the calls on that one as well, depending on what the dollar does to the close.

On other crazy stuff, [[ENTR]] is finally breaking out, while the [[HEB]] takes it in the shorts.   Watch that one, along with [[IMGN]] as I think they’ll both “be baaahhk” like Arnold.   Another Fly buy is [[OVTI]] which I’ve had for a while now, and is finally perking.

Queries welcome.

Here’s a great theme for today.   Whether we’re talking the dollar or the market, you gotta love this humble boy from Northern Florida.  Fantastic rendition, too, the way he gets the blase LA crowd to sing the whole first verse (Hat tip to Boomer):

Update:  Funkier version from Hamburg, sorry about the “non-embed” you can see that one on Youtube.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiztRc910Ps 450 300]

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 Update:  Sorry, no calls to sell on TC!  Therefore I am selling one third of my position here at $11.21.   I am risking that I won’t get the better price to reload.

Update: Bot 1k more [[GDX]] @ $40.88 for shizzles and gizzles.  Hanging on the 61.8% fib.

Update:  Re: [[UUP]]– she ended up at $24.00 on the dot.  Isn’t that just like a woman?

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