Indeuuuuuud!
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The last of the Hapsburg Empire has taken his leave.  Harbor no belief that the positive action on gold and silver today is unrelated.  As ancient and corrupt medieval empires crumble into the sea, the strongest of civilization’s institutions remain standing, anchoring our economic and social order.

Note Prince Otto’s obituary’s first lines…

Otto von Habsburg, who has died aged 98, bore the oldest and most eminent dynastic name in European history and could, according to genealogists, trace his ancestry back to the sixth century. The pretender to the defunct thrones of Austria, Hungary, Croatia and Bohemia (now part of the Czech Republic), he pursued a democratic postwar career as a member of the European parliament and a fervent advocate of European union.

A fervant advocate of European Union?  Imagine a thwarted emperor advocating that?  One wonders what Otto’s countrymen, Hayek and Von Mises would have thought of all that?

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All of the Jacksonians and other gold and silver dreams are celebrating the Fourth Of July, seemingly independent now of the dollar’s flux, up over an average of 3%.   Favored Jacksonian’s SLW, ANV and EGO are all up over 4% as of this writing, and EXK is up over 9%.  Still, our friend the $HUI is having troubles breaking that near-term barrier at around $528, so we are not yet out of the Austrian woods, so to speak.

More on that tonight.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W773ZPJhcVw&feature=related 450 300]

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Flying around the Central Mitten today via large American Sedan, one cannot help but be astounded by the plethora of funnel clouds in so many seemingly peaceful rural burgs these days.  If Mother Nature cannot leave lie a town known for 361 days of Christmas (despite its Mary Shelley-esque name) and not one but two Wiener Schnitzel Emporiums, then I just don’t know what the world is coming to.  I tell you, if this road trip gets any more adventuresome, it may take me four days to hitch hike from Saginaw all the way home.

Things were no less tornadic in the precious metal miners markets today, with that rally off support finally coming through for us:

Even more mucho blasto than Baby $HUI, however, were my faithful Jacksonians, with SLW, EXK, ANV, PAAS, SSRI, EGO and even TCK up anywhere from 5% to 9% today.

And not to be overly boastful, but I thought it quite shiny that my final call of yesterday’s post — that laggard AG would catch up to it’s brethren in rapid fashion — came through like a dolorous Dakota Fanning in a crying scene, to the tune of almost 11% in cash gains.  Note the chart, and the accompanying caveat:

Note well my easily excitable Adderall dependents — one strong day does not a rally make.  As you can see above, many many of our Jacksonians are banging their heads on 20 and 50-day EMA’s.   I would not be surprised at all, therefore, to see a pullback from these levels, and perhaps one all the way back to the 500 level on the Baby $HUI.

Most likely we’ll see the most trouble at the old breakout line on the $HUI — at $519 give or take a smidge.   Be aware of your levels and do not get caught flat-footed.   In the meantime, silver still looks like the recovery drug, although traditionally hot money gold plays like ANV (up 8.83% today) are coming in close behind.

Be safe out there, and keep your helmets on.

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The Goonch will speak now, and you will listen…

Mr. Jake has gone for his annual Feast of Bipeds Cheering for Quadrapeds.  Let me explain.   Mr. Jake goes to get drunk and forget about life for a while. (The Goonch heard these words from a magic box that was crammed with singing humans.  The magic box was owned by two fat fisherman who once were noisy above Goonch’s sky, but now make no sound in the Goonch’s belly.) 

The Goonch is cross with Mr. Jake.   Mr. Jake goes to watch delicious healthy quadripeds with funny names run around in a clockwise circle while he cheers and sips brown crazy water.  The Goonch feels this is a tragic waste of healthy delicious quadripeds and would much rather Mr. Jake lead said delicacies down to the shores of the Ohio River where the Goonch is waiting patiently.

No matter, the Goonch’s belly is full this day, anyhow.  Many many piles of silvery and gold pastries were strewn about the Goonch’s lowland parlours and the Goonch did not allow those opportunities pass by uningested.  Restraint is not the Gooch’s bag, for the most part.  

So today, the Goonch supped well on AGQ at $232.66.  It was delicious, if filling.  He also had his fill of AG at $17.47, and SLW at $36.30.  On the gold side, the Goonch was grateful for the bits of ANV floating at his meridien at $36.05.   Most propitiously, The Goonch was grateful also to chance on some scrumptious EXK at $9.56, between his usual fare of drowned puppies and kittens.   The Goonch thanks all dumpers, large and small.

Be assured, the Gooch still has ample appetites, and if you refuse to bring your small children, or your healthy brown quadripeds close to shoreline where I might show my lip, then I will be pleased to ingest more silver-that-is-not-fish. 

Most corpulent good health to you all.

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Addenda:  For those of you fretting about the CME increasing margin rates on the silver markets, I again ask you — why do you think they are doing this?  As the most astute Jesse from Jesse’s Cafe Americain points out — why didn’t they raise margin rates during the dot com bubble, or mortgage rates during the real estate bubble if they were so concerned for investor’s safety?  Is the CME some sort of sainted brotherhood looking out for the small investor?

Ummm, no.   As I’ve mentioned on these boards before, and Jesse, to his ever-lovin’ credit independently corroborates, it looks like those sneaky bastards are running out of silver.  

I just found Jesse’s blog tonight, while researching this unprecedented fourth (no! 5th!) margin raise in two weeks by the CME.   Tell me — who acts this crazily expeditious in such measures?  Can you imagine the Fed raising short term rates four (strike that, five!)  times in two weeks?

Is this not a sign of panic?  Occum’s Razor,  my friends, shave with it!

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Here I am off on a pleasant fishing trip, and some of you are already gnawing your neighbors’ fingers to the third knuckle in white-eyed panic.

Please, sirrah, leave aside your neighbor’s foreleg and listen here.  Have a shrimp cocktail.  Read a pleasant romance novel.  Present your spouse or beloved with a surrepetitous boss upon the lips and pronounce yourself arduous.   But for pity’s sake, let’s not loose our bowels here over a nasty couple of days draw down.

Noted, this speech is not for ye varicose vets who have been with me since we began back in May of ’09.   Most of you wise folke have stacked piles of coin in your garage and pantry to the point of bringing alarm to your neighbors.   Such would be true had you been moderately disciplined, and kept your core close whilst raising cash at opportune times when the rivers were high and the bloodlust roiling.

For those of you new to the scene (and it appears there are new folke popping up all the time on my site), I implore you to take care here.  Do not self immolate.  I would rather you slice, stack and eat 17 bologna sandwiches while you wait for this pullback (one in a long line now) to quiet rather than seeing you sell in a convulsive panic.

In the meantime, my own patience grows thin, and I was even audacious enough to begin adding to my AGQ horde again today.   What of it?  It was only some 20% of my peak shares and it was at $261.80 a share — a good $120.00 off the recent highs!   Might I get some more even lower tomorrow?  I sure hope so.  

I’d better be nimble though, as this thing has come so very far, so very fast.  Remember my silver commodity chart from last night?  Where I’d hoped for a tag of the 50-day EMA?  What haste we’ve made toward that goal just today:

What’s more this fast tracking has given silver’s double ETF — AGQ — a premature visit to the 50-day EMA already.  As a result, I’m not sure AGQ has much left to give here:

Will we hammer that 50-day one more time tomorrow?  Odds on, I’d say it’s likely.  But then again, I was never quick, so I’m just going to take this slowly, and with aplomb.

I also bought back some more EXK today, at $9.89.  I’m back to a 75% position in that stock from my core of 50%.  You see how this works?  It’s a little sloppy, a little messy, but in the end, it makes for great gains.   I also grabbed more AG today, at my early price of $18.01 (again, on a GTC order in place for two weeks now) and later a little more below that in the upper $17’s.  I’m near to a full position in that stock a well, but have one more “lunker bait” order in there in the lower $16’s.  

One gold stock I love, despite it’s recent oxygen robbing action, is ANV.   I’ll let you guess where my orders lie for this one, tomorrow:

Cast your nets upon the waters, friends.   Captain Bernanke has promised many fish, via multiple dynamite stick detonation.  Sure it’s not fair, but should we turn up our noses at free cod?

All the best.

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No, not that balding ponce, you tossy sods, but Prince Amukamara, the Big-12 Defensive Player of the Year and 6’0″ 219 lb. (eleven stone!) shut down cornerback out of Nebraska, who was wed to the glorious and never diminishing New York Giants Football organization last evening as their 2011 Number One Draft Choice.

And no, you across-the-pond and Eurostanian wankers, not that commie “football,” either, but rather the real thing, with tackling that is encouraged and smiled upon, rather than rewarded with flimsy red cards from referees with tight shorts and no hats.

And let it be known, that in my capacity as the #1 Giant Fan Financial Blogger in the Known Universe, I bestow my blessing on this union (though perhaps not on the NFL Players Union) as a “good match” and for the Giants organization amplify that description by naming it  “a great catch.”  

You see, this kid was supposed to be a top ten draft pick, and I even saw one mock draft that had him going at #6.   There was a tiny bit of hair on him, I guess, given that he enjoyed 5 interceptions in his junior year whilst garnering zero this year.   That can readily be ascribed to quarterbacks never daring to throw in his direction this year, and his largely acknowledged “shut down” reputation, which connotes that the receivers he guarded never caught anything either.  

All that said, I concur 100% with Giant GM Jerry Reese in his assessment that a good defense can “never have enough pass rushers or quality cornerbacks.”   Let’s face it, thanks to TV machinations and wholesale rule changes designed to boost ratings, the NFL has become a passing game.  Despite that tendency in offensive schemes, the old adage that “Defense wins Superbowls” holds true to this day.  Therefore, marrying the two realities, one can only conclude that having superior athletes that can shut down the passing, either by sacking or air-tight coverage (and one can often lead to the other) imperative.

Therefore, I welcome the Prince (he really is a Prince, allegedly, though I doubt you’ll be seeing his nuptials on the E! Network anytime soon) with open arms and great hopes that he will enter the lists — along with Emlen Tunnel, Spider Lockhart, Mark Haynes and Mark Collins— of great Giant defensive backs from this day henceforth.

So shall it be written, so shall it be done.  Amen.

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As for the PM trades, the dollar appears to be continuing to flag bearishly, so I am continuing to be opportunstic in my “fishing.”  I actually grabbed a starter position in AG yesterday afternoon (announced first in The PPT) at $21.33.   I also opened a speculative position in SLW (to augment my stock position) by again purchasing the June $35.00 calls at a price just a hair below $7.15 a contract.

On the gold side, I continue to like ANV and AAU, the former for its relative strength and the latter for it’s takeover possibilities.

I continue to keep in place my lower bids for EXK, AG and AGQ for “just in case” fishing purposes, but I’m not really expecting to get much of those filled.  Fact is, the dollar continues to look sickly here, and I think any bounces at this point will continue to be of the deceased feline variety.
Best to you all.

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Some prefer to chart the mathematical spreads between petroleum jelly and its tasty chemical equal, petroleum margarine (I can’t believe it’s not butter!), all the while poking a charred oak barrel stave into the entrails of a freshly killed hedge mole for further signs of rain or drought.

Me? I’m a man of simpler methodologies and observations. And over the last ten years, there’s rarely been a more able indicator than the following monthly view of this pathetic store of national goods and services:

Note that we’ve recently breached one near term support.  I don’t expect the dollar will be done keening into the night until we reach that second basing area, well below $71.00.

Luckily for us, that means we can still make some lemonade and Jack out of these lemons and white corn.  Despite the opprobrius doomsaying of the terminal top pickers, I’m coming across a number of charts that do NOT look like the now-cliched blowoff top we’re all expecting in the physical commodities, and specifically, the precious metals.   In this case, the miners have become “the tell” after lagging the physical commodities for some weeks now.

Take for example one of my finest stalwart Jacksonians, ANV.  Remember this set-up chart from mere days ago?

Pretty measured flag and pop formation right?   Now look again, mere days later… Does this methodical ascent give you pause to believe we’re pricing ourselvs to oblivion here?  Not me:

I get the same frisson from a number of other names that have pulled back and consolidated while the commodity metals themselves have gone somewhat bonkers.   As a result, these babies have room to roll for at least another goodly ascent to the stratos.  Consider AAU, which I’ve accumulated quite a bit of in these last weeks.  Recall this weekly chart from just before Valentine’s Day?

Now look at what has taken place just these last two days:

Does that chart scream out “exhaustion” to you?  Me neither.    

Last, let’s not forget some metals which aren’t so much “precious” as they are scarce.   Because of that concern, we can see moves and profitability in names like REE and AVL like we’ve seen with some of our precious names.   My favorite of the moment continues to be QSURF, which broke to new highs today like it was hocking silver on the side:

Go get ’em, tigers.  

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